
When discussing historical events, I often chide people to judge history from the perspective of the time in which it happened, not through a modern lens, or personal biases. It is with that in mind that I bring up the obvious. The world today is looking an awful lot like the world looked in 1939. It is like we are watching a new movie based on an old book. The parallels between the actions of Hitler and Putin are eerie, and the behavior of the PRC is hard to distinguish from that of Imperial Japan.
And, once again, world powers are being led by stupid men into a completely avoidable mess. That said, it would be just as stupid to blindly fight that last war today as it is to ignore the lessons of history. Imagine if we could go back in time and stop Hitler BEFORE he invaded Poland, or galvanize the Allied Forces to act early on after he did so. The United States was in no better position to act then than we are today, but what if acting in 1939 would have stopped the war years earlier.
If this Russian dalliance with being the catalyst for WWIII could be stopped by our actions tomorrow, would it be worth it, especially given the lessons of history? I am not advocating for action today, and I am personally NOT a proponent of that course, for a variety of reasons, but the question is worth considering, and could soon become the most important question we face as Americans. Right now, given our farcical President, one who cannot pose for a picture without pooping his pantaloons, and who’s dementia is obvious to all, and a cadre of top military brass who’s primary mission is to root out extremist activity in the ranks, even if they have to create it first, or getting in touch with their white privilege, because that is an important way to increase the lethality of the United States Military. With these people making the calls, my conscience cannot allow me to support sending our blood and treasure to fight abroad, anywhere, for any reason. If they find themselves being led by better men, I will reconsider.
Now, Putin has made overtures to continuing his mission of annexation, issued demands about the disposition of NATO Forces in certain countries, and made threats to use nuclear weapons to address any opposition to his aggression. My theory is that he wants to rebuild the old Iron Curtain from the Baltic to the Black Sea, while also making Europe dependent on him for their energy needs. The man is a psychopath, but that is nothing new in Russia. They have been a major player in most of the death and destruction Europe has experienced in the last couple of hundred years, psychopathy seems to be in their blood.
Putin, in addition to fancying himself a modern Tsar, has also expressed a nostalgia for the glory days of the USSR. As President of the Russian Republic, he seems to share the same fear of the west as his predecessors, and apparently sees the same solutions. Namely, he recognizes the obvious value of a buffer zone between Mother Russia and the threats and decadence of Western Europe. To be fair, watching the devolution of the EU into some bizarre mix of all the previous bad European ideas, along with some incredibly crazy new ones, it is easy to sympathize with his concerns. But, Europe’s refusal to do sane things, such as securing their own borders from the migrant invasion and their unwillingness to look to their ability to defend themselves militarily is not why Putin made the decision to invade Ukraine. He is expanding his power base, eliminating a potential NATO ally on his border, and likely setting the stage for Act II.
I find it amusing that Putin uses de-Nazification as his excuse to invade, although that must be intentional, as it is the language of the western Left, and one with which they can identify. Let’s face it, the government of Ukraine are not the nicest people in the world, and in many ways they are only marginally better than the Kremlin, if at all. But, it is easy to see the similarities between the annexation of Crimea, Donbas, and Belarus, and German efforts of their day in places like the Ruhr Valley, Czechoslovakia, and Austria, and it is impossible to miss the parallel between Ukraine and Poland. The question is, who is the next France and will the West stand by and hope again for, “Peace in our Time”. Do they have the will, should it become necessary, to do the hard thing today to prevent the unimaginable tomorrow? None of the signs point to a pleasant answer.
Consider this, the EU is a bureaucratic mess that cannot engage in basic governance among its competing members. They have no hope of putting aside their self-destructive instincts long enough to effectively engage anyone who is serious on any issue of significance. NATO is filled with members who refuse to meet the minimum obligations for their own defense, much less the ability to help each other or anyone else. The fear that they might have to actually fulfill their charter is one of the reasons Ukraine is not a member (full disclosure: I don’t think they should be). That said, if I remember correctly, we, and the Europeans DID promise to not let the Russians roll over them if they gave up their nukes. Awkward…….
Today, the West is wondering what is next and hoping they don’t have to fulfill any promises they made before. Watching this unfold, and having followed the refusal of many NATO nations to fulfill their obligations under the charter, it has me wondering if all of those promises were the result of a drunken night on the town, with Germany loudly declaring, “DON’T WORRY, I GOT YOU BRO!!”, to Poland and Estonia, before passing out in the back of a taxi, only to wake up hungover the next morning, missing their pants, and with no memory of the night before. The real question is what comes next.
I am afraid the only good answers are the least likely to be realistic. I see the Russians seizing a once in a lifetime opportunity to create that buffer from the Baltic to the Black Sea while the West is too weak and too scared to stop them. Germany has all but allied itself with the Kremlin economically, and is completely dependent on them for natural gas. Not that it matters, rumor has it that most of the German military is unable to field much in the way of military might, having allowed their own military equipment to become display pieces.
The UK has almost no Navy now, but can put together a nice air and ground force, if the U.S. and others will get them there. Sort of a Dunkirk in reverse. Some of the other NATO allies can bring a fight if necessary, but the Poles, Romanians, Dutch, French and Italians combined cannot really match the Russian bear if it wants to throw down. Of the 30 member states, it would take ALL of them to really put the Russians back behind the Iron Curtain, and even then it would likely be up to the United States to supply the lion’s share of power.
But will we? Right now, among all Americans, a debate is ongoing about the wisdom of intervention. Many people I respect are coming down on either side of the issue, and, in my opinion, they are all correct. There is little in the way of U.S. interest in saving Ukraine. But, there is a LOT of U.S. interest in the matter of containing Putin IN Ukraine, or even better, back in Russia. There is a lot of our interest represented in blocking Putin’s demands with regard to current NATO allies, and neutralizing his threats if we don’t acquiesce. I don’t believe this is the endgame for Putin, and I believe his demands are a pretext to the annexation of places like Estonia and Latvia, unless the West can get their heads out of their rear ends and stop trying to recreate the chaos and ineffectiveness that characterized the beginning of WWII. Now, as then, we need a Churchill, but we have a bunch of Chamberlains.
In closing, consider the secondary effects of our fecklessness in this situation, and that of the EU and NATO, along with our unspeakably disastrous departure from Afghanistan. Our entire approach to global issues is so backward under this administration that it seems intentionally designed to give our enemies the advantage. I am certain the Chinese are watching all of this play out with an eye to the east and Taiwan, and possibly further. I would be shocked to hear that Iran and North Korea aren’t planning to take advantage of our unwillingness to involve ourselves in any coherent, sensible, manner, in Europe or anywhere else. We are vulnerable on most fronts, and, should we find ourselves in an economic dispute with China, which many I have talked to believe is a real possibility, the dollar is at great risk as the world’s reserve currency, which will lead to disaster worse than military ones that are on the table. Neither Biden, nor most of his team, was really very good at their jobs on their best days, now they have shown the world just how inept and unserious they truly are.
The old Chinese curse of, “may you live in interesting times,, is coming true, and given the current state of affairs here at home, there appears to be no end of comical incompetence in sight. The map of the world will look a lot different in a year, as will the lives of many of the inhabitants of this planet, unless we can develop a strategy that is short on hope as a foundation, and long on muscle and will. Elections have consequences, and not just for the citizens of America.
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