A Warning From Russia Without Love

Sergei Ryabkov, Deputy Foreign Minister: YOUTube ScreenGrab

THE SOURCE: The picture and accompanying quote above is from a WION (World Is One News) YouTube post found here. WION’s stated mission is to bring the “latest & breaking news from South Asia, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka and rest of the World in politics, business, economy, sports, lifestyle, science & technology with opinions & analysis.” WION is a multinational English language news channel headquartered in New Delhi and is India’s first privately owned international news channel.

THE MESSENGER: Second tier senior bureaucrat, Sergei Ryabkov (b. 8 July 1960) was born in Moscow, and has worked in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation since 2008. Educated at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations, he worked in the Russian Embassy in Washington, D.C. from 2002-2006 and then returned to Moscow as head of the Department of European Co-operation.

THE MESSAGE: Any effort from Western countries to foment and feed a resistance movement in Ukraine after that nation is fully occupied and controlled by the Russian Army will result in harsh measures taken against those who, from outside Ukraine, supply the insurgents with weapons. Harsh measures against the insurgents themselves are assumed. From the horse’s mouth:

THE TARGET: The message is aimed at those NATO nations most likely to fuel a Ukrainian resistance movement (cf. the French Resistance of World War II) in a defeated Ukraine. Principle among them being Germany and the United States. Leading the list of those unnamed Western leaders targeted are U.S. President Joe Biden, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson. In that order.

WHY PUTIN USED A SECOND TIER MESSENGER: Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov would seem to be the most logical messenger. But he is too close to Putin. Ryabkov speaks with the authority of the Russian state but is not the voice of its top leadership. Sometimes the most serious threats are best delivered by less commanding voices than those of the top-tier leadership.

POST WORLD WAR 2 HISTORY THAT APPLIES TO THIS WARNING:

(1) During the Vietnam War, the VC/NVA received an “orchestrated pumping of weapons” from the Soviet Union and China. Those weapons included a great many AK-47 and SKS rifles, plus surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), and 82mm mortars/rounds. The U.S. Army used an 81mm. mortar. Consequently, captured VC/NVA mortar ammo would not fit in the U.S. 81mm mortars, but U.S. mortar rounds fit into the VC/NVA tubes. Weapons and personnel flowed down the Ho Chi Minh trail and into S. Vietnam. They were hand-carried, truck-driven, and delivered on bikes. Point: The Kremlin and the CCP armed the victors of the Vietnam War.

(2) During the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, in Operation Cyclone the U.S. supplied the Afghan Mujahideen with money and Stinger missiles that were successful against Soviet aircraft. It was payback time. Hollywood aired a movie based on that episode entitled Charlie’s Wilson’s War starring Tom Hanks and Julia Roberts. The Russians are unlikely to have forgotten or forgiven the C.I.A. role in Operation Cyclone.

WHO ARE MOST LIKELY TO HEED RUSSIA’S WARNING:

The current Executive Branch of the U.S. Government; namely, Biden, Harris, Austin & Blinken.

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