Might there be a silver lining to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?
Documents allegedly written by an FSB (Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation, successor agency to the KGB) analyst claim that Russia’s disastrous invasion of Ukraine has ended Chinese President Xi Jinping’s plans to make a run at Taiwan this fall, according to Fox News.
Although it’s impossible to confirm the veracity of this report, it’s certainly something we’ve all thought about over the past three weeks.
We know that Xi sees Russia’s unprovoked attack on Ukraine as a trial run for his own planned “reunification” with Taiwan. Xi had to have been surprised by the ferocity of the world’s reaction to Putin’s aggression and stunned by the severity of the economic sanctions leveled against Russia. In addition to his concerns over economic pain, Xi likely fears becoming an international pariah himself.
Putin underestimated the willingness of the Ukrainian people to fight for their country which will pose an ongoing challenge in a future Russian occupation. Xi has to wonder if he too would face perpetual resistance from the Taiwanese.
The price tag for waging war against Taiwan might be too steep for Xi to pay, especially if he plans to surpass the U.S. as the world’s greatest superpower.
I agree with the analyst’s premise that after watching the dumpster fire that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has become, China has cancelled or at least postponed their plans for Taiwan, but he loses me when he starts discussing potential FSB propaganda lines.
According to the document:
Xi Jinping was at least considering taking over Taiwan in the fall – he needs his own little victory to get re-elected for a third term – there the struggle within the elite is colossal. Now, after the Ukrainian events, this window of opportunity has been closed to him, which gives the United States the opportunity to both blackmail Xi and negotiate with its competitors on favorable terms. It was in this case that we launched a trap mechanism for China with our actions.
The analyst wrote that the FSB is “seriously considering” promoting the narrative that “the battle on Ukrainian territory is a US war against China, in which the Americans simply set us up and used us.”
It continues:
The global clash between the US and China was inevitable. After the war with Ukraine (although I may avoid using the term ‘operation’ here), the cost of resources in the world, especially energy ones, has gone up. The main victim of such actions becomes China, to which (I can confirm) were given guarantees that everything will end quickly. Therefore, China behaved tolerant in the past. But that was before that.
China may well give us a tough ultimatum to end the war to stabilize oil prices. If this happens, I don’t want to predict anything – it’s just on the horizon of disaster events.
Fox reports that Vladimir Osechkin, founder of the Gulagu.net human rights group, published a copy of the analyst’s remarks on Facebook. He noted that the same analyst who wrote this document also wrote a “March 5 report that claimed a Russian victory in Ukraine had become a near impossibility.”
Christo Grozev, a Netherlands-based journalist, tweeted that he “showed the letter to two actual (current or former) FSB contacts, and they had no doubt it was written by a colleague.”
Last night, an alleged FSB whistle-blower letter was published that damned Russia’s military performance in Ukraine and predicted a disaster for the RU in the next weeks and months. I wasn’t sure if it was authentic – as Ukraine had previously leaked fake FSB letters as psy-ops.
— Christo Grozev (@christogrozev) March 5, 2022
This letter appeared different though: it came via a reputable source (founder of https://t.co/CRbu3jRNHI), and it was way longer than a forger would choose to make it (the longer the text, the more risk of making an error).
— Christo Grozev (@christogrozev) March 5, 2022
I showed the letter to two actual (current or former) FSB contacts, and they had no doubt it was written by a colleague. They didn’t agree with all of his conclusions, but that’s a different story.
Here’s the text, worth reading: https://t.co/KyRDX4VuDV— Christo Grozev (@christogrozev) March 5, 2022
Here’s the whole document through Google translate. pic.twitter.com/Cr9YENEICf
— Aaron Astor (@AstorAaron) March 5, 2022
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Frankly, I don’t believe anything that comes from the US Intelligence agencies, let alone something that comes from Russian Intelligence agencies. Actually, that pretty much goes for the total governments, not just the intelligence agencies.
As much as I abhor the Putin invasion of Ukraine, I also recall that Ukraine was also a prior “republic” in the socialist soviet union of same, and also has a history of disinformation in the shadow of the bullying big brother Russia, The Reds were also successful in planting the seeds of destructive communist sympathizers in the US intelligence community (e.g. Gus Hall-voting John Brennan), so it’s challenging to look at anything that comes from such a source as not potentially tainted.
It’s safer to view most everything coming from Russia, and its government entities, even a whistleblower, as suspect. I’m inclined to believe second-hand reports from the obscure man on the ground, in Ukraine, reporting on what is going on with the war, and what is likely to happen the next day, more than anything from anyone associated with the media or government propagandist.
I still can’t get a grip on some of the stories coming out of Russia, about Putin’s situation keeping him in power. Too much relies on all those who surround him as being equally foolish in their waging of war, and that doesn’t make sense, to me. I think Putin is more likely to use the FSB to send out messages like this than they are to allow a whistleblower to get out a snippet of what’s happening in the background.
I wonder if we’re looking at enough of the whole picture with China and Taiwan.
Taiwan was a tough nut to crack to begin with, tougher than a land invasion of Ukraine. But, if we look at some of the other, say, logistical issues as bad as it is for Russia in Ukraine it could easily be two or three times tougher in Taiwan or more, especially if the Taiwanese fight as tenaciously for their island as the Ukrainians are fighting for theirs or if any of the other nations in Asia decide to do more than NATO has been doing in Ukraine and, possibly, use their submarines to make China’s logistics problems, including moving soldiers into theater.
There was a report out of Ukraine that Russia is having supply issues and may be out of replacements for the war materiel by mid-May because Ukraine has been so effective at destroying with advanced western arms, arms that I am sure Taiwan has been working hard at acquiring for itself.
Combine that with [edit: Russia] reaching out to China for help with weapons systems and, although the report out of Ukraine can be questioned, the issue of resupply might not be such a wild idea.
I’m sure that the sanctions are getting China’s attention but if I were Xi in China I’d be seriously rethinking any of the rosy projections that my generals, like the Russian generals gave Putin about Ukraine, have handed me about taking Taiwan.
The weird thing is, the outline I provided above makes sense to me… nothing that Russia or our own intelligence agencies gave me makes much sense to me.
Fourth paragraph… should read, “Combine that with Russia reaching out to China”
A question… Why can’t I edit my post?
Not sure why WP doesn’t allow much editing, but gotcha covered. 🙂
The reason it makes good sense to you is because of your curiosity about China’s poor reporting of their own Covid cases, which was a while back, but as valid as it gets. They lie! China was reporting hundreds of cases when it was more like hundreds of thousands of cases/deaths, many government imposed.
Like you, I believe very few are looking at the whole picture, when it comes to China/Taiwan, and Russia/ Ukraine, and are basing much of their fears on fears being spread by the media and pols.