Is Putin’s Rule Becoming Weakened Because Of His Failure to Capture Ukraine?

Image by Xavier Turpain from Pixabay

No matter how the rest of the Ukraine conflict plays out, Russia has become mired in an expensive, potentially devastating war, one that, at best, leaves Russia weak and isolated for the foreseeable future. At worst (for Moscow), as Western, and particularly America’s supply of heavy weapons accelerates this summer. Ukraine’s military believes that it can reverse course and push the Russians from territory it has held since the start of the war against Russia (Putin). It is becoming increasingly obvious, to Russia’s own people and to Kyiv, that the Ukraine war will not be won easily, and meanwhile, Russia’s President, Vladimir Putin, has made Russia an international pariah.

Yet, in deciding to invade neighboring Ukraine, analysts say that Putin has made the biggest mistake of his political career and has left Russia weakened for years. For all these reasons, Vladimir Putin probably believes a protracted war of attrition is the one that he will be winning, not only in Eastern and Southern Ukraine but ultimately also in Kyiv and the region. For Putin, Ukraine’s example is all too inspiring as a template for the people who might ultimately demand similar things from him back home, which would spell his downfall. Putin has rightly assumed that large segments of Ukrainian society are not willing to fight in wars (Another devastating assumption), or rally around the incumbent Ukrainian political leaders, even when winning the country is a goal.

The Russian leader has solid levels of support among lawmakers (Which he controls), which was evident in the recent vote days before the start of the Russian war against Ukraine, recognizing Ukraine’s breakaway, self-proclaimed republics of Donetsk and Luhansk. So far, Russian-produced polls (Putin’s controlled polls) have shown substantial support for the war on Ukraine, or more precisely, for a special military operation, as christened by Russia’s leadership. This is also the case, not least, because the war effort has so far favored Russia, even though Russia has an overwhelming military capability when compared with Ukraine. In that context, and having seen what Russia’s leadership and Russian leading military forces have undertaken over the past week. 

If Zelensky had accepted American offers to escape, I believe the Ukrainian people and military would have fallen in the first days of the Great Patriotic War.  In the end, a desirable outcome to the war of attrition would be for the Ukrainians to compel Russian withdrawal or, at the very least, for the Kremlin to accept a negotiated settlement with terms that were agreeable to Ukraine. Whatever Vladimir Putin may promise in the course of the peace talks, Western officials will need to assume that any Ukrainian population handed over to Russia would face arrest, terror, widespread looting, and unprecedented levels of rape. Ukrainian cities would be integrated into Russia against public wishes, and, like in 2014, when Russian proxy forces in the Donbas agreed to a ceasefire, any ceasefire agreement would be provisional, lasting only as long as needed to allow the Russian military to regroup, remobilize, and begin again. Putin probably would have wanted a pro-Russian government or at least a non-hostile one. Ukraine would have been a neutral country in Kyiv, similar to Finland, Sweden, or Austria.

Russian President Vladimir Putin might establish a degree of control over parts of eastern and southern Ukraine and possibly Kyiv while fighting an insurgency within Ukraine operating from the west and engaging in guerrilla warfare throughout Ukraine. Reminiscent of guerrilla warfare in Ukraine during World War II. Russian President Vladimir Putin could ensnare his army in an expensive, pointless occupation of Ukraine, degrading Russian soldier’s morale, draining resources, and returning nothing but the hollow rings of Russian greatness and a neighboring country reduced to poverty and chaos. Russian President Vladimir Putin has misjudged the United States, the European Union, and a host of countries, including Australia, Japan, Singapore, and South Korea–all capable of collective action prior to the war and all of whom are now fixated on Russian defeat in Ukraine.

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Also, see Our Nation Stands

 

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6 thoughts on “Is Putin’s Rule Becoming Weakened Because Of His Failure to Capture Ukraine?”

  1. There are a lot of “what ifs” and “maybes” when trying to understand what Russia is going to do, concerning Ukraine.
    For example, and I only heard this from one source, but Ukraine and Russia just agreed to let Ukraine ship grain using the Black Sea. Then Russia goes and attacks Odessa. Some agreement.
    Now, Russia is on some kind of supposed offensive in the western region of Ukraine, a place they abandoned after getting the heck beat out of them.
    Regarding Putin’s rather unknown illness, and whether or not he has a body double, which just makes me want to laugh, who knows? But it leads me to think that Russia not only has Putin at the helm, but broader support for his invasion than I would have thought, considering the riots in Russia, and there have been several. As top his military, I think you are spot on, that his military will be very weakened as this war moves along. The same can be said about our military because we are supplying a lot of munitions that I’ll bet are just dwindling in number because our government is betraying us by letting this supplying of Ukraine deplete what we need to face other foes.
    If Putin is in charge, and I think he is the sole power in Russia, this war won’t be over until the day Putin dies, or is killed by his own group of thugs.
    Putin is not a good guy, and Zelensky has some very questionable alliances, like that thing about George Soros being who funded his election, so neither are necessarily saints, but a bigger picture is unveiling, straight from the Bible, so I think this war is going to last, and the world will be dragged into it, and some say there are connections to some passages in Ezekiel. I’m beginning to understand that part better than the nonsense coming from the news.

    One thing I know for certain is that there is not a single news source in the USA that I can say I believe. It’s that agenda thing.

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      • The 1782 inclusion of the latin phrase was more talking about the result of leaving the British monarchy, but it does make one think about the origins of this Klaus Schwab nonsense, which is as real as can be.
        A lot of people laughed off the Agenda 21 success by the UN. Look on some of our highways for signs of that disaster. Bike lanes in some pretty stupid places that burden the cars and trucks.
        I view what Klaus Schwab did, with that WEF nonsense, which is very real, and very dangerous, was to take what the NWO crowd couldn’t get very far off the ground, but Schwab is going to fail, like he has, many times in the past. The guy is a grifter. He appears a lot like another German(well, Austrian), Hitler and his bestseller, Mein Kampf.
        That’s a good read. I’ll need to read it another time or two. Lots of good stuff in that article, Michael.

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  2. Russian President Vladimir Putin might establish a degree of control over parts of eastern and southern Ukraine and possibly Kyiv while fighting an insurgency within Ukraine operating from the west and engaging in guerrilla warfare throughout Ukraine.

    I don’t see that happening in most of Ukraine… my crystal ball is rather cloudy about Crimea, but as it stands today I see little hope that Russian can retain any presence in the bulk of Ukraine.

    The fighting might be a little like the earlier battles around Kiev, really Bucha and Irpin, where the Russian and Ukrainian forces fought pitched battles and swapped that ground 3 times before the Russians finally retreated. But I don’t see any possibility of Ukraine accepting a Russian presence anywhere in their country without their infrastructure and army being totally. In the 8 years of hostilities with Russia they haven’t shown a willingness to let that happen and, with all of the extra help they are getting from the west and I don’t expect them to change any time in the future.

    Like the Irpin and Bucha battles it might take the Russians getting mauled and it might come in a massive encirclement and defeat or surrender of a Russian force by the Ukrainians but the only future I see is Russia leaving Ukraine and there being no chance that Russia will contemplate another adventure like that.

    Maybe Putin will, in a fit of pique, contemplate lobbing a few nukes into the country but Russia will pay far too much on the world stage if they do that so, cooler minds will prevail on him and his forces will just keep destroying and looting everything they can until they are finally ejected from the country.

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