Ukraine is winning its war against Russia militarily, but it is anyone’s guess if the people of Ukraine will see anything positive from that victory if it is eventually completed. It is quite likely that Ukraine’s war will end like most Democrat wars do, with destruction, death, and wasted money on a vast scale, but with the status quo which existed before the war pretty much intact. It is still highly unlikely that Ukraine will be able to dislodge Russia from all its territory, which Ukraine’s President Zelensky has set as his goal. However, it is even less likely that Putin will achieve his goal of taking Kyviv and cleansing Ukraine of what he calls Nazis. So, what is the most likely end state of the war in Ukraine? Answering that question requires a review of the events which started this war and led us to the current situation.
Officially, Putin invaded Ukraine to protect the ethnic Russians in Ukraine’s eastern provinces and Crimea, “demilitarize” (i.e. conquer) Ukraine, de-Nazify Ukraine (aka ethnic cleansing populating Ukraine with Russians, and prevent NATO from expanding its territory to Russia’s border with Ukraine. To achieve that, Putin sought to invade Ukraine on a broad front to seize territory that would secure its holdings in eastern and southern Ukraine while simultaneously decapitating its government by seizing the capital in Kyviv and killing or capturing Zelensky. What Putin still calls a “special military operation” was intended to be completed in 3 months or less, with the main objectives achieved in 2-3 weeks. Putin had his designated political leaders and a puppet Russian Ukrainian Army ready to run the country once Zelensky was history.
Unfortunately for Putin and his cheerleaders in the Biden administration like Milley, Austin, Blinken, and Biden himself, the Ukrainian military was able to make use of the training and preparation that America had provided to thwart the Russian Army’s attacks. Unlike South Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, but very much like Israel, Ukraine has been able to defeat their larger, richer, and more experienced foe with superior tactics, aid from NATO and other countries, and a far superior fighting force of motivated, courageous and fierce soldiers. Given the horrendous record of Russian atrocities in Ukraine, including calculated genocide of millions before and during World War II, it is no wonder that the Ukrainians fought like lions against the invaders. Compelling evidence of similar atrocities in cities all over Ukraine during the current invasion merely cemented in the minds of Ukrainians that surrender to Putin meant certain death, deportation to Russia as serfs, or slavery in Ukraine. Once it became clear that the Ukrainians were not Afghans, or Iraqis, or South Vietnamese, NATO and other countries rallied, grew a spine, and started giving the Ukrainians the weapons and support they needed to not only stop the Russians but to defeat them and drive them back. As this article is being written, the Ukrainians are slowly and inexorably pushing Russia back and Putin is frantically trying to conscript Russians into the Army to fight in Ukraine, thus confirming that his Army has suffered massive losses.
Plainly, this war could turn into a bloody stalemate. Putin drops bombs, fires artillery, and launches missiles against Ukraine and its cities, with impunity for his own civilians in Russia guaranteed by the leaders of NATO. It is grimly amusing to hear Putin and his lackeys decrying Ukrainian terrorism while they threaten to use nuclear weapons, but it is also a hallmark of Democrat wars. They absolutely love to send American soldiers (and our allies) to war with rules that ensure our side can never win. In Vietnam, they gave the Viet Cong and the NVA safe sanctuaries in North Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia from which they continually launched massive attacks which they staged with near impunity. The Democrats and their RINO allies did the same thing in Iraq by allowing Iran to support our foes in Iraq with weapons, logistics support, and safe havens. Ditto in the tribal areas of Pakistan on the borders of Afghanistan. Even when they do not start a war, Democrats do everything they can to prolong it and ensure America loses. Let’s guess what Russia will do if Ukraine successfully drives the Russian army out of Ukraine but is not allowed to attack any targets inside of Russia itself. It is easy to guess, and anyone who does not see a future of endless Russian provocations against Ukraine staged just inside Russia’s borders is probably a liberal Democrat.
How did the situation in Ukraine get so lopsided in favor of Russia that the West will allow Russia to destroy half the country of Ukraine, but will not let the Ukrainians fire a single missile into Russia? Another stroke of Democrat genius: they convinced the Ukrainian government to give up its nukes after it declared its independence from Russia. Ukraine and the West crafted the Budapest Memorandum to provide Ukraine security in return for Ukraine surrendering its nuclear capabilities. Frankly, if the US and NATO had lived up to that commitment and helped Ukraine develop a military capable of deterring Russia before Putin decided to invade this year, or even after he invaded Ukraine in 2014, it is quite likely that this Democrat war would never have happened. Ukraine learned the hard way not to trust American Democrats. Just as De Gaulle insisted on France having nuclear weapons, the Ukrainian leaders should have kept some of their own, specifically to ensure that anyone wanting to invade Ukraine would have a nuclear counterattack to worry about. If they had nukes, Putin would never have invaded Ukraine. Putin may be evil, ruthless and power mad, but he is not suicidal.
Ukraine makes an admirable and sympathetic hero in the morality play that is the Ukrainian war. A small, poor country whose people yearn for nothing more than freedom is invaded by a despotic and brutal nation intent on enslaving or annihilating them. They were supposed to lose quickly and end up a vassal state of Russia at best, or more likely, to be absorbed into Russia, ceasing to exist as a separate nation. Instead, their courageous, determined, and ingenious people have proved more than a match for Russia. Sadly, it may not make much of a difference. Even if the war ends tomorrow, the Ukrainians face a decade of hard work to rebuild their ravaged country. If Russia decides to continue attacking Ukraine and trying to undermine its government, Ukraine will not survive without extensive and continuous aid, both military and economic, from NATO countries. Given the ambivalence of nations like Germany and France, and the economic hardship it would require of Western Europeans, it is hard to have a lot of confidence in their determination to support Ukraine long term. If Putin remains in power, there is no chance that he will allow Ukraine to live in peace.
The best America and NATO can hope for is that Putin is pushed out of power and a relatively moderate leader takes his place. That is a scenario that is hard to predict. Putin could easily be replaced by an even more ruthless, hard line Russian leader. If that happens, Ukraine will remain a battleground for the foreseeable future, and an incessant drain on the resources of America and Europe. Ditto if Putin remains in power. The only good outcome would be if Putin is replaced by a moderate Russian leader who decides to cooperate with NATO instead of competing with it. That is what Trump was trying to lay the groundwork for while he was President, but the Democrats sabotaged that effort so they could start another war to replace the ones Trump was ending.
Sad but true, Democrat leaders despise American soldiers and those of our allies, so we should not be surprised if they keep starting wars that get those soldiers killed and that last for years because the Democrats set conditions that will not allow them to win. Ukraine is far more important than either Iraq or Afghanistan, so, the next President is stuck with that tar baby for a long time. Fortunately, as we have seen in South Korea, a motivated population can make all the difference to the long-term success of a military intervention. In the case of Ukraine, its people are inspiring everyone with their dedication to their country and its freedom. Perhaps their example will inspire the Russian people and its leadership to see the potential in working with NATO instead of fighting it. After all, the real threat to Russia, and the rest of the world, is China.
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