Defending the Republic, Scenario 3: Takeover
This is the third and most dangerous scenario introduced in Part 1 of Defending the Republic. While it may directly manifest from the triggers discussed below, most likely it will flow from scenario 2: Policy Domination stimulated by the trigger(s). If scenario 3 happens and is successful, the US as we know it will cease to exist. The question is whether there will be a US at all or whether the country will break apart.
It is also the most unlikely scenario. The potential perpetrators of scenario 3 most likely do not want to risk the fallout from this scenario and will be quite happy with controlling behind the scenes through the fig leaf of the Constitution the powers simply ignore. They want to control and reap the financial benefits of the US economy and resources, not destroy it.
When Julius Caesar crossed the Rubicon, he ended the Roman Republic, and the Roman Empire began. I suspect the average denizen of Rome barely noticed. The armies fought the civil war did, but most of the fighting was away from Rome.
But those in the senate and other governmental functions almost certainly did. In time, even the slaves probably saw the difference. Almost certainly, even the lowest Roman citizen saw the differences, but the powers in the empire used bread and circumstances to feed, entertain, and shelter them. Perhaps they did not care and were oblivious. But when the barbarians conquered Rome in 476, they killed the emperor and western Rome fell. Then the people noticed as western civilization took a huge leap backwards.
The takeover scenario is like Rome 476 and the fall of the empire. It is the least likely of the three scenarios, but the most dangerous. And like Rome in 476, the threat is most likely an external threat, supported by internal actors. The external threat is China. The internal threat are the politicians and the corporations that China bought and paid for. There is ample evidence that China has bought university professors. Corporate executives, and politicians. For example, see the NBC report on China’s engagement with universities. There are persistent stories/rumors the Biden administration, or at least the Biden family, is involved with China.
Why would China want to topple the US? The short answer is, it probably does not want to. Unless it sees toppling the US government is the only way to get what it wants. Otherwise, it will most likely support scenario 2 through its money and influence.
The potential triggers for scenario 3 are:
- China invades Taiwan, and the US intervenes. This starts a war between China and the US. China steps up cyber attacks and unleashes its proxies in the US. It also activates the soldiers that it smuggled through the transparent borders and begins attacks on US infrastructure. The politicians China bought try to restrain and inhibit an effective US response.
- Russia lashes out over its failure in Ukraine and launces cyber and potentially nuclear strikes against the US. This may be with Chinese efforts.
- A new administration takes a hard line against China and seeks to isolate China and cripple it economically. This may include the US repudiating its debts to China and taking assets, such as farms and other properties its puppet companies bought in the US, to pay for damage from COVID-19.
- China’s internal pressures continue to grow, and its leaders get increasingly aggressive overseas to divert attention from the internal problems. They take possession of more disputed areas and pressure Pacific states for trade and other concessions. As the US and other states enact a containment strategy, China lashes out at some states, such as the Philippines or the Solomon Islands, in a move reminiscent of Japan in the 1930s. The US rushes forces into the area and frictions grow until an unplanned event, such as Chinese ships brushing against US and allied ships and a war breaks out.
Following the history of Rome, this scenario will probably trigger a civil war between those that want to keep the Republic and those that want to destroy it. My concern is that trying to avoid this scenario could trigger it. China has enormous internal stresses that may cause it to either wind down, like Japan in the late 1990s to date, or potentially break apart, as we may see with Russia. This could create a very unstable situation with a nuclear power.
We need to remember that China is a fascist, mercantilist, state that needs continued economic growth to hold its internal tensions in check. Threats to that economic growth may be treated as existential threats to the state.