The New Hampshire primary is upon us as the second contest of the rapidly concluding Republican nomination process. The field has narrowed down to two candidates, Donald Trump and Nikki Haley. Ron DeSantis suspended his campaign this weekend and endorsed Donald Trump as the presumptive nominee.
The interest and excitement in the race is gone. Even Haley supporters (though they seem to be pretty rare in real life), seem to have thrown in the towel. The attention seems to all be about DeSantis ending his campaign and how that affects the party unity in November between Trump and DeSantis supporters. The most recent polls for a two candidate field show Trump increasing. The base feels like it has accepted that Trump will be the nominee and will rally behind him for the most part, even if half of the base preferred someone else. We saw some of that in Iowa. The events since that make me think that New Hampshire will not be Haley and Never-Trump’s last fight as much as it will be Trump’s knockout blow.
We have to conclude that the polling is not a complete psyop. It may be manipulated to push us in one direction or another, but the Iowa results tracked fairly close to the RCP averages other than underestimating the support of Ron DeSantis. I would still caution people will believing any single poll. Outliers are usually wrong. Polls that show a race with 3% or 4% aren’t really leads, but are tied. With DeSantis out of the race, the current RCP polling average has Trump at 54.3% and Haley at 36.8%, for a Trump lead of 17.5%. The expectation is a comfortable Trump win with over half of the voters supporting him.
I will offer three guarantees based on the movement I am seeing in the party. I’ll admit I’m not as familiar with New Hampshire as Iowa, though given my Iowa guarantees and predictions, I don’t see how I will do much worse. With the race narrowing down, there just aren’t a lot of guesses to make. It is basically trying to pick out where the two of them land and how many votes to hold out for DeSantis and others who have dropped out of the race. Here are your guarantees:
- Trump exceeds 55%.
- Haley doesn’t reach 40%.
- Trump beats Haley by at least 20%.
As for my predictions, I’ll just offer up final numbers on Trump and Haley. Trump wins easily at 61% with Haley at 34%. The other 5% is split between candidates who have withdrawn. I will also predict that Haley will not immediately withdraw, but will end up suspending her campaign before the South Carolina primary to avoid a beatdown in her home state by 60%. She will drop in the polls in South Carolina after New Hampshire and Trump will climb to the point that few will be interested in wasting more money fighting a losing battle. I also predict that she will endorse Trump, though it might take a few more days for that to happen. By South Carolina, Trump will be the only candidate and will have been endorsed by all of the others that mattered (Christie doesn’t matter).
If you enjoyed this article, then please REPOST or SHARE with others; encourage them to follow AFNN. If you’d like to become a citizen contributor for AFNN, contact us at managingeditor@afnn.us Help keep us ad-free by donating here.
Truth Social: @AFNN_USA
Facebook: https://m.facebook.com/afnnusa
Telegram: https://t.me/joinchat/2_-GAzcXmIRjODNh
Twitter: https://twitter.com/AfnnUsa
GETTR: https://gettr.com/user/AFNN_USA
CloutHub: @AFNN_USA