Despite the Chicom aggressive and fairly successful public affairs efforts in recent years designed to show the world that the PLA and Navy are “twelve feet tall” and that their economy is booming, there is some convincing evidence indicating that XiJinping has major domestic (social and economic) problems on his plate, which have him seeking a useful distraction, looking for the least dangerous, lowest risk way to move against Taiwan. If he wishes to follow the teachings of Sun Tzu (Chinese 5th Century philosopher and warrior…and author of The Art of War), the ideal way for him to win Taiwan will be to “prepare the way” so perfectly that he can win everything without actually engaging in combat at all!
For that reason, I believe that rather than witnessing the late stages of preparation for an invasion of Taiwan in the near term, we might be witnessing a shrewd, low risk campaign of extortion and intelligence gathering designed to reveal the degree to which the US and China’s militarily-significant neighboring countries, e.g. Japan, Australia, South Korea will react. And, in view of recent history, Xi has every reason to believe that a blustering, threatening approach will so thoroughly discourage Taiwan’s potential defenders, that a fully-mobilized invasion of Taiwan will not even be required.
Furthermore, examples such as our disgraceful and costly departure from Afghanistan, our cowardly failure to react or punish the Chinese balloon overflight of the US, the supine reaction to the shootdown of the US intelligence drone in international airspace over the Black Sea…..all combine to demonstrate the feckless passivity of US foreign policy, encouraging Xi to think that “now is the time!” In coming days, free nations must answer Chinese provocations by meaningfully and substantially enhancing the Nationalist Chinese defensive capabilities. Doing so will send a clear message of deterrence to Xi….and to other tyrants around the world!
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