Everybody wants to know how the story of this year’s presidential election will end. All signs point to a return of The Donald to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. On July 13, the final sign appeared when the Lord flicked away an assassin’s bullet.
Keep the faith, baby. There will be good days. There will be better days. There will be bad days. In the end, the people will do the right thing.
But backing Trump publicly isn’t something celebrities and academicians do. Allan Lichtman has promoted himself for years as the seer of elections — the Punxsutawney Phil of Politics.
I say gopher it.
Lichtman compiled 13 keys to a presidential election. He says the incumbent party has to own seven of these to win — and that Kamala has eight!
She doesn’t.
Nevertheless, he told CBC in Canada, “Kamala Harris will become the first woman president of the United States, at least putting a big crack in the glass ceiling, if not shattering it entirely.”
I doubt it. Even if elected, she will do for women what Obama did for black people. Nothing.
Election forecasting can be fun. I had a boss I didn’t like who said the person with the best hair wins. She usually was right. Biden may be dumb as a doorbell at the School for the Deaf, but he was correct in getting hairplugs.
Then there is Lochel’s Bakery in Hatboro, Pennsylvania, which every four years sells cookies with red sprinkles (Republican) and cookies with blue sprinkles (Democrat). Trump is way ahead.
Lichtman is entitled to his opinion but not his facts. Using his own rules, I can show him he’s wrong.
His keys are:
- Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
- Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
- Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
- Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
- Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
- Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
- Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
- Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
- Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
- Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
- Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
- Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
- Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
Lichtman said she owns No. 2, but there really was a contest for the nomination between Biden and her. That it was so sudden and so late in the process really hurts her chances.
We have not had an incumbent president ousted by his own party since Teddy Roosevelt challenged President Taft in 1912, which split the Republican Party and led to the election of Democrat Woodrow Wilson.
Does anyone believe the Biden Crime Family now is anything but lifelong frenemies of Kamala? Check out FJB’s cap.
Which raises the first (of two) poll question: Why did Biden put on a Trump cap?
This article first appeared on Don Surber’s Substack. Reprinted here with permission.
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