On May 7, 133 cardinals filed into the Sistine Chapel and sealed themselves from the world in a centuries-old ritual. The white smoke will rise when the next pope is chosen, but Catholics shouldn’t be watching for continuity this time. They should pray for correction.
The Church is not where it should be morally, doctrinally, or culturally. Much of that comes down to one man: Pope Francis.
Francis followed two giants: St. John Paul II, who stood athwart communism and declared moral clarity with courage, and Pope Benedict XVI, a razor-sharp theologian who defended orthodoxy in the face of relativism. Their combined legacies were rooted in truth, reason, and dignity.
Francis inherited that momentum and fractured it.
He styled himself the “Pope of the People,” preferring gestures over substance and ambiguity over absolutes. He promoted a culture of confusion, inviting debate on long-settled issues like same-sex blessings and communion for the divorced. He sidelined tradition-loving bishops and allowed doctrinal drift under the banner of “accompaniment.” He spoke often of mercy but seemed suspicious of justice.
In short, he blurred the Church’s once-clear voice into something unrecognizable.
This conclave offers a moment not for continuation, but for course correction.
A Damaged Church
Under Francis, the Church did not merely face declining attendance; it hemorrhaged clarity. His papacy emphasized the margins, yes, but often neglected the center. The faithful who clung to the doctrine, who believed the Magisterium meant something, were left bewildered. Latin Mass communities were treated with disdain. Moral teachings were softened to the point of contradiction. Even within the hierarchy, confusion reigned.
The sex abuse crisis, far from being resolved, festered in corners Francis failed to expose. His attempts at reform were sluggish, selective, and often shielded allies.
This conclave isn’t just a turning point. It’s a referendum on a wounded papacy.
The Contenders and the Divide
Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican Secretary of State, is among the most-discussed names. A polished diplomat, he knows the machinery well. But his entanglement in financial misdeeds and lackluster response to abuse allegations raise serious doubts. He is a man of the system, not a reformer.
Then there’s Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, beloved by progressives and often likened to Francis. He smiles well, speaks gently, and preaches inclusion. But what the Church needs now is not another gentle steward of decline. It needs conviction.
Cardinal Matteo Zuppi, another name gaining steam, hails from the Sant’Egidio movement. His peace work is commendable, but his politics mirror the Francis era, more interested in building bridges with global elites than upholding spiritual discipline.
In contrast, Cardinal Péter Erdő of Hungary represents a rare possibility: restoration. A conservative canon lawyer, Erdő has long defended the theological integrity that once defined the Church. He is not flashy. He is not likely to flirt with synodal novelties. He would represent a re-centering of Rome on truth, not trends.
Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa, though younger, also deserves consideration. As Patriarch of Jerusalem, his experience navigating conflict zones lends him gravity. But would the conclave trust such a young voice in an age of crisis?
What About America?
While an American pope is unlikely, the U.S. delegation could play a pivotal role in shaping the outcome. Among them is Cardinal Raymond Burke, perhaps the most vocal critic of Francis within the College. He is a man of spine and scholarship who has paid a price for speaking the truth.
Cardinal Robert Prevost may be aligned with Francis in governance, but he brings global experience and steadiness. However, Cardinal Wilton Gregory and Blase Cupich represent more of the same progressive ethos that eroded the Church’s credibility under Francis. Cardinal Timothy Dolan, while publicly popular, has often failed to translate charm into spiritual leadership.
The elephant in the conclave is not just who gets elected but what direction that choice signals.
The Francis Reckoning
The next pope must do what Francis would not: define doctrine clearly, discipline bishops justly, and draw sharp lines where the world has blurred. The Church was never meant to reflect the culture but to correct it. Francis preached inclusion but at the cost of identity. That trade-off has left pews empty, vocations down, and even faithful Catholics unsure where the Church stands.
The answer isn’t cruelty or coldness. But clarity.
We need a shepherd who speaks not in gestures but in truth, doesn’t downplay sin to win applause, and defends the Eucharist with reverence and rules. We need a pope who will fortify the Church’s walls, not apologize for building them.
A Moment of Reckoning
This conclave is not a feel-good transition. It is a reckoning. The Cardinals must not search for the next likable figurehead or pastoral poet. They must search for a man of conviction who can re-anchor Rome in orthodoxy and sees mercy and judgment not as opposites but as partners.
If we get another Francis, the next conclave may not be about electing a pope but about salvaging a Church that’s slipped too far.
Let the white smoke rise, but only if it signals a return to strength, not a repeat of softness.
Behind the Locked Doors
For all its ancient trappings, the conclave is a highly structured and secretive electoral process. The word conclave comes from the Latin cum clave, meaning “with a key,” symbolizing the literal locking in of the cardinals until a new pope is chosen. Each of the 133 eligible cardinal electors under 80 will cast secret ballots up to four times a day. To be elected, a candidate must receive a two-thirds majority. This conclave will be the first with over 120 electors.
The ballots are burned after each round; white smoke signals a successful election, while black smoke means no consensus has been reached.
But while the Sistine Chapel provides the setting, the genuine drama happens in the margins: whispered alliances, regional coalitions, and theological horse-trading. Even in the 2005 conclave that elected Benedict XVI, then-Cardinal Jorge Bergoglio (later Pope Francis) reportedly received significant support as a compromise candidate. In 2013, the speed of Francis’s election, after just five ballots, surprised many, showing an engineered consensus more than a groundswell.
That kind of maneuvering will be harder this time. There is no ideological unity. There is no default successor. Only clashing visions and a question that haunts the faithful:
Will the next pope restore the Church’s moral fire or merely tend to its slow burn?
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