Whiplash. We woke up on Monday morning to the news that Israel was warning Palestinians residing in the eastern sector of Rafah, the last remaining Hamas stronghold in the Gaza Strip, to evacuate ahead of an imminent invasion. Several hours later, it was widely reported that Hamas leaders had agreed to a hostage swap/ceasefire proposal hammered out by negotiators in Egypt and Qatar over the weekend. Yet, by midafternoon, IDF troops had commenced their invasion. By Tuesday morning, they had taken control of the Rafah crossing into Egypt.
So what the heck happened? It turns out that, unbeknownst to the Israelis, rather than agreeing to the conditions they had previously signed off on, Hamas had instead submitted a counterproposal. Worse still, sources told Axios that U.S. officials, including CIA Director William Burns who was involved in the negotiations, were aware of the changes but failed to inform the Israelis. The outlet reported that Israeli officials received a copy of the new terms an hour after Hamas had made their formal – and disingenuous – announcement to the media. The sources said “the feeling is that ‘Israel got played’ by the U.S. and the mediators who drafted the new deal.”
Asked for comment on the situation, a senior U.S. official denied the allegations, telling Axios, “American diplomats have been engaged with Israeli counterparts. There have been no surprises.” The official did concede, however, that “the Biden administration sees Hamas’s response as a counterproposal and not as a new proposal.”
An Israeli source told the Times of Israel that one area of disagreement lies in “Hamas’s insistence that any ceasefire must lead to an end to the war.” Additionally, the terror group demanded a complete IDF withdrawal from the Gaza Strip. Obviously, Israeli leaders, who do not want to see a repeat of the Oct. 7 massacre, refuse to end hostilities until Hamas has been decisively defeated and expelled from Gaza.
But the most egregious modification to the deal was revealed on Tuesday. The Times of Israel reported that “Israel had initially demanded that 40 living hostages of the 132 still in Gaza be released in the first phase of the three-phase plan — all of them in the so-called ‘humanitarian’ category: women, children, elderly and sick people.” When Hamas informed negotiators they did not have enough living hostages to comply, the Israelis lowered their requirement to 33.
Rather than admit they were unable to produce even 33 living hostages within the humanitarian category, Hamas amended the proposal to read, “During the first phase, Hamas releases 33 Israeli detainees (alive or corpses).” Needless to say, the change was unacceptable to the Israelis.
According to details from Hamas’s announcement on Monday and the Times’ conversation with an individual briefed on the negotiations, Hamas in its counterproposal had reportedly agreed to the following terms:
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A first 42-day phase, in which Hamas releases 33 hostages (dead or alive) in exchange for Israel’s release of Palestinian security prisoners and a partial Israeli withdrawal from Gaza.
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A second 42-day phase, in which Hamas releases all remaining hostages in exchange for further Palestinian prisoner releases and an agreement to put in place a “sustainable calm” in Gaza.
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A third phase in which all remaining hostage bodies are handed over to Israel, and Gaza’s reconstruction begins, alongside an end to the complete blockade of the Strip.
President Joe Biden spoke to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday morning prior to Hamas’s formal announcement about the deal to the media. A White House readout of the call said only that the president had updated Netanyahu on the progress of the negotiations, which were still ongoing at the time, and “reiterated his clear position” that Israel stay out of Rafah.
But unless and until Israel can eliminate Hamas’s four remaining battalions and the group’s leaders who are believed to be hiding in Rafah, they cannot defeat Hamas. Biden’s vehement opposition to the one action Israel must take to win the war has created a serious rift with Israeli leaders and has prolonged the war.
It is no doubt Biden’s determination to appease Muslim American voters in the crucial states of Michigan and Minnesota that has clouded his judgment and led directly to his betrayal of our closest ally in the Middle East – a fact that few Democrats are willing to acknowledge.
Since Biden’s initial display of support for Netanyahu in the immediate aftermath of the deadly Oct. 7 attacks, his actions, including his administration’s alleged slow-walking of arms sales to Israel, leave many of us wondering just whose side he’s really on.
While it might be unfair to say that Biden wants Hamas to win the war, I have to ask: Is he actually hoping for a stalemate, at least until Election Day? It sure looks like it.
A previous version of this article appeared in the Washington Examiner.
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