About a year ago, my wife and I watched Netflix’s A House of Dynamite, and found it mildly entertaining. We watched it again last week and found it disturbingly chilling. What changed between the two viewings? Only one thing: Our President was honest with us, and we learned that Iran had 440 Kg (almost half a ton) of nearly weapons grade uranium, and was within weeks of going nuclear.
In the movie, a radar station in Alaska detects a missile launch from somewhere in the Pacific Ocean, but can’t determine who launched it. Within a few minutes, tracking and intelligence indicates that the missile could be nuclear armed, and is headed for Chicago.
Officials assume that the attack may have been launched by North Korea, with a previously unknown sea-launch capability. But that’s only a guess, because they don’t know what other nuclear power would have insane enough to do it. The reality is that the missile could have been launched by anyone.
Ground based interceptor missiles attempt to neutralize the threat, but fail. The Secretary of Defense learns that his interceptors only have a 60 percent likelihood of success. America’s safety had been bet on a coin toss, which didn’t go our way.
Federal officials have less than 20 minutes to understand what is happening, and take appropriate actions. Continuity of leadership evacuations begin. Strategic bombers are scrambled. Loved ones are covertly warned, because humans are still human. The President is rushed out of Washington, to an unknown location. The military chain of command is disrupted when the Secretary of Defense commits suicide, after his last phone call to his daughter – who lives in Chicago.
In response to America’s changing military posture, Russian and Chinese naval forces begin leaving port. Tensions escalate further when a Russian ballistic missile submarine “goes dark,” eluding NATO tracking.
Conflicting advice from diplomatic, intelligence, military, and political advisors flood into the President. The country is under attack and POTUS needs answers, but all he gets is a growing list of questions. That’s typical in the early stage of crisis management. Unfortunately, in a nuclear attack, the early stage may be the only stage.
The President faces the ultimate command authority dilemma: what to do, when the wrong decision could end the world. And he must make that decision, within minutes, not knowing for sure what’s actually happening, nor what’s in the hearts and minds of other world leaders.
Should he retaliate against the presumed aggressor – North Korea? But if his advisors have guessed wrong, could he be starting WWIII?
Should he wait the hours or days necessary to gather reliable information? But if the attack was misdirection from China or Russia, could his inaction be seen as weakness and trigger escalation?
If he does retaliate against North Korea, should it be a limited engagement? Mightn’t even a limited engagement provoke China or Russia, pragmatically fearing that they could be next?
Given the risks of a limited response, should he preemptively attack Chinese and Russian nuclear assets, to prevent them from escalating?
The movie ends with the President’s military aide, opening the nuclear “football,” handing the President a three-ring binder of attack plans, and briefing him on his options. Will he choose restraint, limited retaliation, or preemptive escalation? Based on his choice, will our geo-political adversaries stand down, or end the world? As I said – chilling.
The point of the movie was that when a nuclear attack is underway, all good options to deal with a nuclear threat will have lapsed. Chaos will be the order of the day and world changing decisions will be made based on incomplete, and perhaps even incorrect, information.
Government “experts” claim that the movie is unrealistic, but I find their rationale unconvincing.
They claim that our interceptors are much more effective than depicted – with a 100 percent success rate in testing. Note that qualifier: “in testing.” I’m an engineer and I know that claims of perfect system reliability are based on either delusion or dishonesty. Our ballistic missile shield is not infallible.
The “experts” claim that an actual missile attack would involve a “swarm” of missiles. That may be what their war planning is based on. But what about a nuclear armed third-world lunatic, who may only have one or two missiles? Do we presume all our adversaries are rational enough to avoid a fight they can’t win? Are we sure that the Chinese wouldn’t use deception as a prelude to all out warfare?
As the credits for the movie rolled, I wondered: How much more chaotic would the situation be if one of our cities were destroyed, not with 20 minutes warning, but with no warning? If Iran had managed to build a nuke, how hard would it have been for them to smuggle it into New York harbor aboard a container ship, and snuff out the lives of millions of New Yorkers – as say a 4th of July surprise for the “Great Satan”? Could such an act bring us to the brink of a global war, as the movie suggested? Are the “Twelvers” rational enough to avoid global apocalypse, when apocalypse is a precondition of the “Twelfth Iman’s” return?
The answers to those questions led me to a conclusion: Our current conflict with Iran is messy, expensive, and absolutely necessary. The only good option a President has with regards to a nuclear confrontation, is to prevent one from happening. Deter those who are rational, and eliminate those who are not.
We’ve been unknowingly living in a house of dynamite since Iran began enriching uranium over twenty years ago. Trump is the first President of this century who has decided to deal with the world as it is, rather than as he wishes it were. It’s clear he wants to avoid being faced with his own command authority dilemma – being handed a three-ring binder and asked to decide. But that requires something his predecessors avoided – preventive measures.
Author Bio: John Green is a political refugee from Minnesota, now on strike in Galt’s Gulch – which the locals call Idaho. He is a retired engineer who spent much of his career applying engineering principles to organizational development (yes, really). He has written for The American Spectator, Convention of States Action, and American Free News Network. He can be reached at greenjeg@gmail.com.
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