10 days prior to his tanks crossing into Ukraine to begin his version of wanton mayhem, President Vladimir Putin was already making his excuses for what was to come, even as he denied that anything was to come. Here is some video from the 14^th of February.

 

From that same site, NBS News writes,

The Russian president said he sees “the forceful containment of Russia as a direct and immediate threat.” He also referred to the situation in the Donbass region as “genocide.”

There are many who agree with Putin and a few that don’t. On one side, there are the folks who spread the “everybody knows” line, that expansion of NATO backed Putin into a corner. “Everybody knows” that Putin quite rightly viewed NATO as a threat. I participate in a number of discussion groups with retired (and a few active duty) military officers. There is a large plurality, maybe even a majority, who believe that it is NATO’s fault for expanding into terrain formerly in the thrall of the late Soviet Union. They also agree that Putin rightly views an expanding NATO as a threat to Russia’s security

On the other side, there those who believe that NATO poses no threat to Putin and Russia. Over at Bloomberg.com they write:

Yet this was a red herring, because NATO posed no military threat. The alliance committed, in 1997, not to permanently station foreign troops in Eastern Europe. After the Cold War, America steadily withdrew most of its troops and all of its heavy armor from the continent. U.S. allies engaged in a veritable race to disarm. 

The prospect that NATO could invade Russia, even had it wanted to, was laughable. What the alliance could do was tame the perils that might otherwise have menaced the Russian state.

Further down, they go even further, stating that NATO was actually a good thing for Russian security concerns (emphasis, mine).

NATO expansion hadn’t just alleviated Europe’s security problems; it had protected Russia’s vital interests as well. Moscow might have lost an empire, but it had gained remarkable safety from external attack. 

Read: Putin’s Biggest Lie: Blaming NATO for His War

Both groups are right and both groups are wrong. First of all, NATO is in no shape to threaten, much less execute an invasion of Russia and has no intention of doing so…and Putin knows that. However, NATO expansion is indeed the catalyst that made Putin decide that now is the time to grab Ukraine. How can both of those things be true? Simple. The answer is Ukraine along with certain other border countries…but mostly Ukraine.

The single most important thing to understand, is that Ukraine was the breadbasket feeding most of the former Soviet Union. Even now, Ukraine exports foodstuffs to Europe and even the United States.

Although the US is generally reluctant to import agricultural goods, it did purchase around $143 million of agricultural products from Ukraine in 2019. This was in large part due to the $48 million of fruit and vegetable juices and $31 million of vegetable oils imported.

Read: What products does the USA import from Russia and Ukraine?

However, agricultural production isn’t the only thing in the Ukrainian economic arsenal. It has abundant natural resources, especially minerals. Even the United States imports these from Ukraine. From the same article:

The most prolific sectors in 2019 were iron and steel ($567 million) and iron and steel products ($170 million). The invasion of Ukraine as seen the price of steel in particular soar in recent days and benchmark steel prices in the US are up around 21% since Russian forces first crossed the border.

To recap, along with its agricultural prowess (something that eluded the Soviet Union for the entirety of its existence) Ukraine has something else. It also has a plethora of mineral wealth that can be mined for Putin’s use, or exported in exchange for hard currency, giving him yet another resource cudgel to rattle world markets.

In short, Putin was always going to either install a friendly government in Ukraine (as he did once) or outright invade, topple the government and install a new one. Putin wants Ukraine, for its agriculture, mineral deposits and port facilities. The only part played ny NATO and its Eastward expansion, was in the timing of the takeover. Putin needed to get it done before Ukraine became a member of NATO, thus bringing Article V into play. It was never about Russian security. It was always about Putin’s Westward ambitions.

 

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