The United States appears headed for the largest one-year drop in murders in our history, according to a well-known crime analyst. That’s the conclusion of crime statistics expert Jeff Asher, who says new national data show killings plunging at a pace not seen in modern recordkeeping. According to Asher’s Real-Time Crime Index (RTCI), the United States is on track for the biggest single-year decline in murders ever recorded which is a striking reversal after the COVID-era crime surge and Democrat-funded BLM/Antifa riots.
In November, FBI Director Kash Patel said the 2025 homicide rate will be the lowest in “modern history,” crediting a bureau-wide shift toward fighting violent crime. Independent analysts such as Asher say the data strongly point in that direction.
RTCI is a large national database that compiles reported crime data from hundreds of law enforcement agencies and is updated regularly, long before official federal numbers are released. RTCI data currently available through October show murders down nearly 20% compared with the same period in 2024.^
VIOLENT CRIME DECLINING SHARPLY
Asher earlier this fall cautioned that national crime estimates are often revised and that final “official” numbers can take years to settle. Still, he argued the trend line is now so strong that the FBI will likely end up reporting the lowest US murder rate ever recorded when full 2025 data are released, possibly dipping below the previous record low set in 2014.
The plunge in murders is also part of a broader drop in violent crime.
RTCI data show other major categories falling nationwide, including motor vehicle theft, robbery, and aggravated assault, suggesting the decline isn’t limited to one region or one type of community.
Major cities are seeing some of the sharpest improvements. Axios highlighted drops of nearly 20% in murders in New York City and Memphis, close to 28% in Chicago, and significant declines in Los Angeles County. There are outliers, with a handful of jurisdictions reporting dramatic percentage spikes — a reminder that smaller agencies can see volatile swings from year to year.
The numbers arrive as President Donald Trump has made combating violent crime a major second-term priority. The Trump Administration is emphasizing stronger enforcement and expanded support for law enforcement.
DEMOCRAT-RUN CITIES HAVE MOST CRIME
It has long been recognized that cities that are controlled by Democrats have the most crime, including the most murders. This chart provides glaring proof that Democrats, regardless their race, have no concern for crime victims. Is that because the great majority of murder victims are black: 96% in Washington DC and 80% in Chicago? I can’t help but wonder if Democrat politicians and their bureaucrats aren’t directly benefiting from high crime since they seem to be comfortable being surrounded with violence. They can read these figures as easily as you & I.
City 2024 Homicide Rate Years Since GOP Mayor
- Birmingham, AL 58.8 50
- St. Louis, MO 54.4 76
- Memphis, TN 40.6 63
- Baltimore, MD 34.8 63
- New Orleans, LA 34.7 153 (last GOP mayor: 1872)
- Detroit, MI 32.1 63
- Cleveland, OH 30.5 36
- Dayton, OH 29.7 24
- Kansas City, MO 27.6 34
- Shreveport, LA 26.8 0*
- Washington DC 27.3 64
- Atlanta, GA 24.7 146 (last GOP mayor: 1879)
- Milwaukee, WI 23.9 117 (last GOP mayor: 1908)
- Indianapolis, IN 23.8 9^^
- Richmond, VA 23 35
- Cincinnati, OH 21.8 53
- Louisville, KY 21.7 56
- Chicago, IL 21.7 94
- Compton, CA 20.1 62
- Oakland, CA 18.6 48
- Hartford, CN 18.4 54
- Albuquerque, NM 18.4 8
- Montgomery, AL 18.1 6
- Rochester, NY 18.1 52
When figures for the entire year of 2025, it will be interesting to compare them to 2024. Can the improvement be credited entirely to the Trump Administration?
Chicago Mayor Johnson: “The Shooting Will Continue”
The millionaire who has 150 Chicago policemen protecting him and his wife is claiming that his city has no crime problem. Ok, then discharge your taxpayer-funded security detail and allow them to return to the tasks they were hired and trained for. So proud is he that Chicago has the highest murder rate in the nation that he recently declared
^The index’s glossary notes that its murder category excludes cases such as accidental deaths and deaths caused by negligence, meaning the index aims to track “willful (nonnegligent) killings,” aligning closely with standard FBI definitions.
*Current mayor was elected in 2022. There have only been two Republican mayors in the last 152 years, totaling just eleven years in office.
^^In Indianapolis, the homicide rate has been elevated ever since Democrats gained control of the mayorship in 2017. From 2010 through 2016, the annual number of homicides averaged around 120. Since then, it has averaged 201.
The author, Diane L. Gruber, is a First Amendment advocate who writes for Substack. She calls her Substack newsletter America First Re-Ignited. Follow me on X @DianeLGruber.
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