President Trump has embroiled the United States in a Middle East mess of his own making. He campaigned on a promise of no more “forever wars.” Unfortunately, his inept handling of the Iran nuclear problem has put us in a position where a forever war may be our only course of action.
Trump’s missteps on the Iran nuclear issue began eight years ago, in his first term, when he unilaterally canceled the “Iran Nuclear Deal.” At the time, I was a vocal critic of this approach. Don’t get me wrong, I was no fan of the deal brokered by Obama. I openly criticized it at the time. And Trump correctly assessed that Obama’s nuclear deal was a bad one because the deal left Iran on the path to an eventual nuclear weapon. But it was a very slow path – one that gave us time to develop a plan to deal with Iran’s nuclear ambitions. However, having no deal is worse than having a bad deal. Bad deals need to be strengthened, not canceled. Canceling the Iran Nuclear Deal quickly put Iran back on the fast track to a nuclear weapon.
While the Obama nuclear deal didn’t go far enough, it did have international backing. And international consensus is necessary when forcing a country to abide by international law. If Trump was the great leader he claims to be, he would have united the world in revising the Iran Nuclear Deal to make it impossible for Iran to develop a nuclear weapon. Instead, he ignored our international partners and unilaterally canceled the deal. Now the United States is left to deal with the fallout on its own. And Trump has absolutely no idea how to do that.
Trump thought he could destroy Iraq’s nuclear capabilities through an air campaign. But that approach failed to yield the desired results. While American bombs did damage a great deal of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, it appears that much of their enriched uranium remains intact. Trump’s current plan to use military might to force Iran into giving up its enriched uranium does not appear to be working. Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz is driving an even greater wedge between the United States and its allies around the globe. Trump’s “America First” agenda is turning into “America Alone”, and that is not a recipe for success in international negotiations.
The Trump administration has touted successful regime change in Iran, but only the names have changed. Iran’s current regime is as evil as the last. And they appear to be just as determined to get a nuclear weapon as ever. Trump claims he is having good discussions with Iran’s new leaders, but that view is not shared by those same Iranian leaders. They have refuted every claim that Trump has made. Trump supporters and Trump opponents have debated which side is telling the truth. The reality is that it is likely that neither side is telling the truth. Both are simply posturing to project control to their base.
This week we saw Iranian proxies in Iraq attack Saudi Arabia and Kuwait with drones – a move straight out of the Ukrainian playbook in their war with Russia. Trump has claimed the war will be over within a few weeks. All appearances are that the war is expanding. A regional war in the Middle East could have economic consequences worldwide, including here in the United States.
Trump appears to have no coherent plan to deal with Iran’s nuclear ambitions. His story changes daily. His supporters will claim that he does this just to throw our adversaries off their game. They believe that Trump is a brilliant negotiator and that the American public should just trust him. To date, that does not appear to be the case.
Despite Trump’s missteps on Iran, we are now in a place where we must finish the job. Trump has claimed that we must not allow Iran to get a nuclear weapon. But eliminating a nation’s nuclear capabilities through force is a tall order. I served on the U.S. military team that eliminated Iraq’s nuclear program in 2003. That was a difficult task even after Iraq’s military had been defeated. Iran’s military is still in place. Taking their enriched uranium will not be easy. But Trump has put us in a position where any other outcome will be perceived as failure.
Richard Jonas is a nuclear weapons expert with more than three decades of experience in government nonproliferation operations.
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