Learn From Mistakes, Or You Will Make Them Again

Both parties have recent defeats to guide them in future elections. The question is will they.

Fools learn from experience. I prefer to learn from the experience of others.

Otto von Bismarck

Chancelor of Germany

One of the great reforms of the American military in the post-Vietnam era was the After Action Review (AAR). After an exercise or event, you gather all persons (or as many as practical) involved and go over what happened. Emphasis is on “intended vs actual outcomes, focus on learning, not blame, and produce insight for future operations.”

This concept has been adapted to corporate and other endeavors, such as politics. But for both parties, they seem to be missing the big lesson. If what you did failed last time, don’t do it again.

In 2012, the Republican Party nominated former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney for president. While a decent honorable man, Governor Romney had issues connecting to the GOP base, as well as contesting his opponent. Understandably he was defeated by President Barrack Obama.

In the aftermath of the 2012 election, the Republican party conducted their own AAR, or autopsy. Unlike an actual AAR, this one did not involve all people, but only party insiders.

RNC Completes ‘Autopsy’ on 2012 Loss, Calls for Inclusion Not Policy Change

…While unveiling the 100-page report at the National Press Club today, RNC Chairman Reince Priebus said he wanted the report, or autopsy, to be “honest” and “raw,” stressing the message of inclusion to Americans who might not be on board with all the party’s policies.

“Our message was weak; our ground game was insufficient; we weren’t inclusive; we were behind in both data and digital; our primary and debate process needed improvement,” Priebus said of Mitt Romney and the GOP’s 2012 loss. “There’s no one solution. There’s a long list of them.”

Valid point on the technology, but the thoughts on the ground game are off. To have a ground game, you need people on the ground. If you message is, again, and again, and again, “We suck slightly less than the Democrats,” you will lose. People will not make the donations, volunteer at events, or knock on doors. For example.

The report, called the “Growth and Opportunity Project,” lays out an extensive plan the RNC believes will lead the party to victory with an extensive outreach to women, African-American, Asian, Hispanic and gay voters. Among the plans: hiring paid outreach staffers across the country in a $10 million push that begins right away; backing “comprehensive immigration reform…”

And the outcome of this was…JEB! In 2012 you had angry milquetoast (McCain), followed by Northeast milquetoast (Romney). So let’s do it again with another milquetoast RINO the base will not vote for, but hopefully enough will vote against the Democrat to win. RINOs, hate to tell you, the base will not vote in enough numbers unless they think there is a choice.

Back to RINOs hill they will die on, “comprehensive immigration reform.” Since the second term of the George W Bush administration, amnesty has been the focus of the GOP Establishment. The party base (the “working man,” small business owners, etc.) react to this like a vampire to sunlight. They are the ones who will suffer by an invasion of cheap foreign labor. Maybe you should not push what pushes off your voters. The powers that be should look at the results of Trump with minorities:

2012 OBAMA ROMNEY

WHITE               39%       59%

BLACK               93%       6%

HISPANIC            71%       27%

2016 CLINTON TRUMP

WHITE               37%       57%

BLACK               57%       37%

HISPANIC            66%       28%

2020 BIDEN TRUMP

WHITE               41%       58%

BLACK               87%       12%

HISPANIC            65%       32%

2024 HARRIS TRUMP

WHITE               42%       56%

BLACK               83%       16%

HISPANIC            55%       43%

A candidate who made his central issue illegal immigration and closing the border got almost half the Latino vote in 2024. You would think the smart people in the GOP would discover amnesty is not going to play on main street. You would be wrong.

Fortunately, the Democratic party also has major issues. In their 2024 AAR, they identified several problems. They just don’t want to discuss them.

A large number of Democratic voters are in opposition to Israel and its operations in Gaza. While this is indicative of the growing anti-Semitism in the party, it was not addressed in any fashion by the Harris campaign.

Democratic voters did not know Harris well. This is largely explained by the last-minute placement of her as the presidential candidate. Building a campaign takes years of planning and work.

The apparent decision to not go after the male vote. Harris declined an invitation to the Joe Rogan Podcast, which has a large male audience. Donald Trump accepted his invite and spent almost three hours on it

Insufficient funding for voter contact operations. In a two-billion-dollar campaign, voter contact was less than eight percent of the budget.

Other parts of the document were left out, but they show other major issues:

Author of Democrats’ 2024 Autopsy Says Party Left Out Key Chapter

The Democratic National Committee…published a draft of its autopsy of what had gone wrong in the 2024 election, saying it was releasing the unfinished document “in its entirety” in the interest of transparency.

But, according to the man who wrote the autopsy, there was a missing chapter…

…Paul Rivera, the author of the autopsy, provided the chapter to The New York Times…

The disputed “What Happened” chapter addressed several politically delicate subjects that were not included in the draft the party published in May:

– It questioned Mr. Biden’s decision to seek re-election in the first place: “Is there a single point of failure for 2024? Perhaps it is a decision of the President to seek re-election instead of passing the torch.”

– It analyzed the party’s loss of support among Hispanic, Black, Asian American and Native American voters, which had been mostly missing from the public draft.

– And it pointedly raised the concern that most senior Democratic strategists in 2024 were “financially secure” and thus removed from the challenges facing many Americans. “It is therefore possible the people ‘in the room’ at the highest levels of 2024 decision making misunderstood the mood and practicalities facing everyday America,” the report read.

It might have to do with nominating a very unqualified candidate who in two presidential primary cycles never got one vote. Kamala Harris dropped out of the 2020 nomination before the first primary. A presidential election is an ordeal that must be endured to be believed (see What It Takes: The Way To The White House by Richard Ben Cramer). But the trial focuses and disciplines you on what is needed.

While I’m uneasy about the upcoming midterms, I have more faith in the 2028 election. The Republican Party currently has a major advantage in funding. The GOP bench, while smaller than previous elections, is strong (VP JD Vance, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Senator Ted Cruz). The Democratic bench is truthfully weak (Harris, Governor Gavin Newsome, Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Congresswomen Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Governor Josh Shaprio and Senator Mark Kelley). They also have no excitement and less money.

But the most critical issue is the issues. Trump, for many shortcomings, has shown the way to win. Address the major problems (immigration, fuel cost, inflation). Offer a solution and keep your promise to the best of your ability. The border is secure for the first time in my life. The US is deporting illegal aliens, and many others are self-deporting. The Trump Accounts are starting, giving lower income children a head start on life. Oil prices, higher than the beginning of 2025, are still cheaper than the Biden years. Inflation is still below the levels during the Biden years.

The Democrats will keep appealing to its more radical base. When you are openly nominating/electing socialists for high office, that’s bad. When they are openly calling for fanatical changes in the US (e.g., eliminating borders, ICE, the Senate, Presidency and Supreme Court) it will not play well with the majority of voters. Francesca Hong in Wisconsin wants to eliminate Christmas and Thanksgiving. James Talerico says there are “six genders” and headlined a Texas pride event with an eleven year old drag queen.

This is not Bill Clinton’s party, but Barrack Obama’s and Bernie Sanders. James Carvel, the man who put Bill Clinton into the White House says he will not be in a party with Hasan Piker. Enough said.

Now, again, we pray. If the Republicans can actually nominate a strong candidate who will give people a choice, they will wipe the floor with any Democrat. If they nominate another RINO (Mike Pence is looking at a run), we are in serious trouble.