Maybe it is time to stop thinking about biological warfare as some mad scientist releasing a vial in a subway station.
Maybe the more important lesson from COVID-19 is that a biological event does not have to be an intentional attack to have the strategic effects of warfare.
That distinction matters, because I am not claiming somebody deliberately released SARS-CoV-2 as a weapon. Even with the extraordinary disclosures and accusations that have emerged since the pandemic, deliberate release has not been established. The current U.S. Director of National Intelligence has gone considerably further, however, publicly describing COVID as resulting from an unintentional laboratory leak associated with risky coronavirus research. That is the current administration’s position—not universally accepted scientific fact—and the origin debate remains politically and scientifically contested. ODNI
But from a military-effects perspective, here’s my uncomfortable question:
Can we finally call COVID Biowar 1.0?
Not because we know somebody fired the first shot, but because we now know what the battlefield looks like.
COVID demonstrated that a microscopic organism can accomplish things fleets of bombers cannot. Borders closed. Supply chains fractured. Schools shut down. Hospitals strained. Governments exercised emergency powers. Trillions of dollars appeared from nowhere. Military readiness was affected. Citizens turned against one another over masks, vaccines and lockdowns. Trust in governments, medicine, journalism and science itself took an enormous beating.
And almost none of the infrastructure had to be blown up.
That’s the strategic difference between nuclear and biological warfare that should keep defense planners awake at night.
A nuclear weapon destroys the prize. Cities, factories, ports, railroads, farmland and infrastructure disappear along with the population. Biological warfare potentially attacks the people while leaving much of the physical capital intact.
The World Health Organization itself acknowledges that biological agents can cause mass casualties, generate epidemics and mimic naturally occurring outbreaks—making attribution extraordinarily difficult. WHO also specifically warns that advances in gene editing and biological research create dual-use risks. World Health Organization
That last part matters.
Because now look around.
In the Democratic Republic of Congo, a massive Ebola outbreak has killed thousands. Recent reporting puts confirmed infections above 8,000 and deaths above 4,000. Stock Titan
Then look toward Siberia.
A 28-year-old employee of Russia’s Irkutsk Anti-Plague Research Institute died after developing severe pneumonia. Nearly 200 contacts have reportedly been placed under observation. Rumors say she was exposed to Yersinia pestis—the bacterium responsible for plague—after a laboratory accident. Russian authorities say there is currently no evidence establishing that story and officially describe the death as pneumonia of unknown origin. Reuters reports that no additional cases have emerged. Reuters
That’s an important distinction.
But put your intelligence hat on instead of your epidemiology hat.
It almost doesn’t matter whether Irkutsk is an accident, ordinary disease, bureaucratic confusion, Russian secrecy—or absolutely nothing sinister whatsoever.
Everybody is watching.
And Moscow knows everybody is watching.
That’s where biological warfare intersects with psychological warfare.
During the Cold War, countries rolled missiles through Red Square precisely because they wanted adversaries to see them. Strategic bombers flew conspicuous missions. Submarines surfaced occasionally. Nuclear tests made very large statements.
You didn’t necessarily have to use the weapon.
You demonstrated that the capability existed.
Today a mysterious incident at an institute specifically dedicated to dangerous pathogens can produce some of the same psychological effects—whether intentionally or accidentally.
And COVID taught governments exactly how powerful those effects can become.
The truly frightening weapon isn’t necessarily Ebola, plague or some laboratory-designed supervirus. It is the combination of biology + ambiguity + information warfare + fear.
Release something—or merely convince your enemy that something might have been released—and suddenly intelligence agencies, governments, markets and populations begin reacting.
WHO explicitly recognizes this problem: deliberate biological events may be covert and ambiguous, while accompanying disinformation can create fear, distrust and psychological trauma. World Health Organization
That’s warfare without mushroom clouds.
Meanwhile, ODNI disclosed this summer that U.S. funding has supported more than 120 biological laboratories in over 30 countries, including facilities in Ukraine that intelligence officials had worried could be attacked, seized or damaged during the Russia-Ukraine war. That does not make those laboratories biological-weapons facilities. It does demonstrate something more mundane and arguably more important: dangerous biological material and sophisticated research capabilities are distributed around a politically unstable planet. ODNI
So perhaps COVID shouldn’t literally be called the first biological war. We don’t have evidence establishing that.
But strategically?
Call it the Biowar 1.0 demonstration.
Humanity accidentally ran the world’s largest biological-warfare exercise and discovered exactly where the vulnerabilities are: hospitals, supply chains, laboratories, governments, communications networks—and above all, human psychology.
Now every major power got to watch the after-action review.
That should concern us far more than arguing endlessly about what happened in 2020.
Because the important military question isn’t whether COVID was Biowar 1.0.
It’s whether somebody took notes for Biowar 2.0.
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