This should be an easy year for Democrats. History says the opposition party wins the midterms. In the past century, there were only three exceptions: 1934, 1998 and 2002. FDR was a popular president while both Clinton and Bush 43 enjoyed 63% approval in the polls.
Trump is very unpopular.
Polls today show an unpopular president. The Hill reported:
President Trump’s approval rating on Monday reached a new record low with two weeks left until the November midterm elections, when Republicans could lose the House and Senate to Democrats.
The latest polling from Reuters/Ipsos shows the president with a 31% approval rating, down 1 point since the previous poll two weeks ago and the lowest point in both of his terms. 66% say they do not approve of his job performance.
To put this in perspective, he had 44% approval in October 2018. Republicans lost 40 House seats.
Obama had 45% approval in October 2010. Democrats lost 63 seats.
Given that Democrats need to win just 3 seats to take the House (and the average loss by a president’s party has been 31 seats in the last five midterms), the House should be a lock for Democrats.
But Kalshi and Polymarket give them only a 92% chance of picking up 3 or more seats. Huh?
There are several explanations, the most likely being that bettors are suckers and those betting on Republicans are simply idiots. Also likely is pollsters are twice bitten and finally shy. Trump supporters fooled the pollsters in 2016 and again in 2024. They won’t be fooled again.
And then there is my favorite—the polls lie.
Ha! MAGA cultists say that robotically without any proof.
 |
 |
 |
OK, maybe there is a little proof.
But that never happened before—well, if you ignore the Daily Kos/Research 2000 scandal in which the company made up numbers that told Daily Kos what it wanted to hear.
Frank Luntz said of Trump supporters:
We know that they don’t respond to phone calls. We know that in the exit polling back in 2016, and I say this publicly because I want people to hear this. You know, I teach at West Point. I cannot lie, cheat, or steal. The cadets can’t. I can’t. I got 2016 wrong. I believed in the exit polls. Trump voters walked away, refused to participate, because they thought that it was against them. They thought that the polls were all biased. And that’s what Republicans are being told right now: “Don’t believe the polls. They’re not accurate.” Well, they may be. We’re about to find out. But I’m still skeptical. In the end, Republicans are less likely to participate. They’re less likely to believe the polls are happening. But I’m most interested in turnout in the end, and there are ways to measure it, and I’m not sure that they’re doing it. They’re polling how the electorate overall feels and not polling the people that are actually going to participate.
He said the magic word. Turnout.
President Trump is out there turning out the turnout. The polls can say what they may but what matters is his approval among the 77 million people who voted for him in 2024. And according to the Pew Research Center, his approval is 67%. Get them to the polls and Republicans keep the House.
And so the 80-year-old leader of the free world is hitting the trail one last time and holding rallies to keep the House and the Senate. This month, he’s hit:
- Oct. 1: Denton, TX (Peterbilt Motors Company) and Durant, OK (Choctaw Event Center)
- Oct. 2: Mobile, AL (Mitchell Center)
- Oct. 3: Vandalia, OH (Butler High School)
- Oct. 5: Grand Island, NE (Pinnacle Bank Expo Center)
- Oct. 7: San Antonio, TX (Freeman Coliseum)
- Oct. 9: Syracuse, NY (Nicholas J. Pirro Convention Center / Oncenter)
- Oct. 10: Clarksville, TN (F&M Bank Arena)
- Oct. 12: Youngstown, OH (Covelli Centre)
- Oct. 13: Wasilla, AK (Curtis D. Menard Memorial Sports Center)
- Oct. 14: Bullhead City, AZ (Laughlin/Bullhead International Airport) and Kalispell, MT (Majestic Valley Arena)
- Oct. 16: Dalton, GA (Dalton Municipal Airport)
- Oct. 17: Highland Heights, KY (Truist Arena)
- Oct. 19: Park City, KS (Heartland Credit Union Arena)
- Oct. 20: Greenville, NC (Pitt-Greenville Airport)
Still to come are:
- Oct. 21: Pendleton, SC (T. Ed Garrison Arena)
- Oct. 22: Sioux City, IA (Sioux Gateway Airport)
- Oct. 23: Fort Myers, FL (Alico Arena)
- Oct. 24: Macon, GA (venue TBA)
- Oct. 25: Port Huron, MI (McMorran Place Arena)
- Oct. 27: Lubbock, TX and Waco, TX (venues not fully detailed in the latest list)
Trump is the modern Harry Truman.
78 years ago, Truman was headed to defeat by Republican Thomas Dewey. The Democrat Party had split and placed three candidates on the ballot. He represented the center. Henry Wallace represented the communist wing. Strom Thurmond represented the segregationists.
Truman hit the road, Jack. Traveling in his private armored railcar, the Ferdinand Magellan, the president saw the USA in his little train, stopping at small stations along the way, delivering a speech to a cheering crowd, and going to the next stop.
His first tour was a western swing that began on June 3, 1948. It covered roughly 9,500 miles, involved about 73 speeches, and visited 18 states. The man just wouldn’t shut up. His supporters loved it. They said give ’em hell, Harry.
On September 17, he began a 15-day cross-country trip to California. He later did a 6-day Midwest swing. Finally, he had a 10-day run through the Northeast.
All told, the four tours covered 31,000 miles and 275–352 speeches. Truman targeted the “Do Nothing Congress” that Republicans had won back in 1946 after a 16 year absence. Dewey would lose and Republicans would lose the House.
Trump tells supporters, “Pretend I’m on the ballot.” Democrats say the same thing, of course, and for a guy with a 31% approval, it’s a pretty ballsy move.
Besides touting record deportations, a solid economy and taking on Iran, Trump is going after Abdulrahman Mohamed El-Sayed, the Democrat Senate nominee in Michigan who doesn’t want anyone saying his full name. He’s like Francis in the movie Stripes. Well, let’s call him Psycho then.
Trump tore into El-Sayed and Ilhan Omar at a rally in Ohio, saying, “These people are crazy. You look at the guy running in Michigan. He’s a jihadist.”
Trump then he praised El-Sayed’s opponent, Republican Mike Rogers, before saying, “Somalia bandits, Third World gangsters, jihadist sympathizers do not belong in Ohio.”
He added: “They don’t belong in America. Better get them the hell out of here.”
The crowd shouted, “Deport!”
Bringing up El-Sayed and Omar is designed to crank up turnout. Ohio’s choice for Senate is between two boring white men. Trump spiced it up. When you vote for (reads card) Jon Husted, you are also voting against Mohammed.
The president is fighting for our lives. This is not hyperbole.
Democrat deep stater (she’s ex-CIA) Senator Elissa Slotkin of Michigan (where else?) said, “I want to look at these signature cases and not just focus on the president, but on the people who enabled him. I want young people coming out of school to say, should I go work for the Trump administration? Like that sounds fun. I might get an opportunity. I want them to be like, Lord, that might be buying myself a ton of problems that I don’t want, and so let me avoid participating in that. I want that deterrence message.”
 |
And she said, “If you have aided in the corrupt use of U.S. taxpayer dollars to benefit the president or his family, or you have violated the law in order to carry out guidance from the president, you should be held accountable. And given how rampant that corruption appears to the average American, people looking to work for his Administration should realize that while the Supreme Court has granted the president immunity, it has not done the same for those who do illegal things at his behest.”
Barack Obama approves that message because his intelligence director, Susan Rice, said earlier, that Democrats will punish corporations and other institutions who have “taken a knee to Trump.”
Rice said, “It’s not going to end well for them. If these corporations think that the Democrats, when they come back in power, are going to play by the old rules, they’ve got another think coming. There will be an accountability agenda. This is not going to be an instance of forgive and forget.”
Can Trump save America? NO, but we can.
Yesterday, I posted a video of Donna Arthur, the mother of Amy Acton, urging people not to vote for the Democrat nominee for Ohio governor. That was a mistake. It turns out the mother allowed her husband to rape Acton at age 12 in 1978, lost custody of her children and stayed with the stepfather until he died in 2004.
You can subscribe to Don’s Daily Substack Here.
This article first appeared on Don Surber’s Substack. Reprinted here with permission.
If you enjoyed this article, then please REPOST or SHARE with others; encourage them to follow AFNN. If you’d like to become a citizen contributor for AFNN, contact us at managingeditor@afnn.us Help keep us ad-free by donating here.
Substack: American Free News Network Substack
Truth Social: @AFNN_USA
Facebook: https://m.facebook.com/afnnusa
Telegram: https://t.me/joinchat/2_-GAzcXmIRjODNh
Twitter: https://twitter.com/AfnnUsa
GETTR: https://gettr.com/user/AFNN_USA
CloutHub: @AFNN_USA