David Axe writes in Forbes that a Russian Army Battalion Task Force was attacked during an attempted river crossing operation in Eastern Ukraine, losing some three dozen tanks, an estimated 1000 people and the bridging units. From the piece:
“The better part of a Russian army battalion—50 or so vehicles and up to a thousand troops—in recent days tried to cross a pontoon bridge spanning the Siverskyi Donets River, running west to east between the separatist provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine.
Ukrainian artillery caught them at the river bank—and destroyed them. The rapid destruction of around three dozen tanks and other armored vehicles, along with the bridge itself, underscores Russia’s deepening woes as its troops try, and fail, to make meaningful gains in eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region.”
This article reminds me of a lot of things, but what comes to mind immediately is what an inept, incompetent hack job this operation was on the part of the Russians, apparently lacking any intelligence, situational awareness, air or artillery support-or common sense-in attempting to conduct a river crossing under these conditions. I’ve been retired from the military for a day or two (okay, 28 years) and I was an intel guy, but I was in Armored Divisions a handful of times and if I was associated with this type of thing, I would expect to be hurt by somebody in the chain-of-command-badly…Hell, I might have done it to myself.
The city that was the apparent target of the crossing-Lyman-population some 20k or so, is about 17 miles or ~30KMs west of the ill-fated crossing point. The Ukraine military forces lack the numbers or resources to directly take on these Russian Task Force units, being outnumbered some ~6 to 1 in terms of Battalion combat elements (like ~99 to 16.) They are quantitatively and also qualitatively outgunned in terms of force ratios-particularly artillery-modernization of combat equipment and nominally all other facets that matter-close air support resources, radio electronic combat, direct and indirect fire combat systems, missile systems, communications-intelligence support-pretty much all the factors considered in these operational decisions.
But experience on the one hand and incompetence on the other can be great equalizers on the battlefield. Any force commander worth their salt would be concerned in the extreme to undertake a laborious river crossing-under the best of circumstances, with well trained, experienced and motivated troops-during daylight or darkness in the open apparently without securing the far bank terrain. From all reports on the Russian efforts thus far, these units are replete with conscripts who lack experience and may barely be qualified for their positions.
The US Army I was part of takes an operation like this with utmost attention to detail, caution and all deliberate speed. I’ve watched hundreds of these efforts unfold during exercises but all the ones I was involved with-providing intel support-followed pretty much the same script. The most important thing as preparation for this type operation-which in effect is a series of synchronized operations that complete along a timetable, the completion of which results in the crossing-is to know where the enemy is-and with an objective within 30Kms and known forces associated with Ukraine’s 17th Tank Brigade, equipped with the 2S1-122mm self-propelled howitzer (artillery,) as well as the T-64 Russian Main Battle Tank and the BMP Armored Personnel Carrier-no American leader would have undertaken such an effort-or even shown themselves on the east side of the river-until the elements of the 17th-all four battalions-were located.
With no more than an hour travel from Lyons to the crossing site-but more importantly with the range of munitions options for the 2S1 putting it within range of the crossing site at just half of the distance from the town itself (15 Kms)-this was pure malfeasance on the part of the Russians.
No armor tactician in their right mind would undertake this effort without having scouts out in the vicinity of the town-it’s just too close to risk one of the elements of the 17th being in proximity to where they could attack the river crossing while underway-and there are few things as vulnerable as military vehicles conducting a river crossing-unless it’s some type of passage of lines where two adjacent or rotating units are in close proximity to each other from a targeting perspective.
Russian tactics-based upon former Soviet Union military doctrine-calls for a task force such as this to have a combat reconnaissance patrol (CRP) consisting of 6-9 vehicles (BRDM-RKH, BMPs, MTLBs or BTR-60s) that would be operating a minimum of 9 to up to 20Kms in front of the force. With the town as the objective-in this case it would be far enough out-and away-to observe the town and the lines of communication leading to the crossing. Doctrine also calls for an advance guard of the main body of forces that could be up to one third of the force including tanks and self-propelled artillery-as many as 30 vehicles, as well as regimental level air defense protection and other assets based on the threat assessment. The advance guard protects the main force but also provides reinforcement should the CRP be engaged.
Finally, there would be aviation support in terms of reconnaissance-unmanned aerial vehicles-close air support available, as well as artillery and other direct or indirect fire support anchoring the crossing and prepared to conduct counter-battery fire should something like what happened, happen. From the piece:
The Ukrainian army’s 17th Tank Brigade spotted the crossing, perhaps using one of the many small drones that function as the Ukrainian army’s eyes over the battlefield. The 17th is one of the army’s four active tank brigades. Its four line battalions operate T-64 tanks and BMP fighting vehicles. But it was the brigade’s artillery battalion with its 2S1 122-millimeter howitzers that apparently got first crack at the Russian bridge.
The 17th’s shelling destroyed at least seven T-72 and T-80 tanks, 17 BMPs, seven MT-LB armored tractors, five other vehicles and much of the bridging unit itself, including a tugboat and the pontoon span.
36 vehicles taken out, the pontoon bridge and a tugboat.
This is becoming a weekly occurrence for the Russians who seem to be sticking to well-known lines of communications-roads-rather then transiting through fields-but with little to no cover available these units are sitting ducks when they are detected. This news week article describes a similar circumstance where Russian forces were detected by a UAV and similarly destroyed earlier this week. The overall numbers being reported for the war thus far-if accurate-are staggering:
The Ukrainian military also claims that Russia has lost 1,187 tanks, 2,856 armored fighting vehicles, 528 artillery systems, 185 multiple launch rocket systems, 87 anti-aircraft systems, 199 warplanes, 160 helicopters, 1,997 motor vehicles and fuel tankers, 12 vessels, 390 unmanned aerial vehicles, 41 units of special equipment and 94 cruise missiles.
The numbers of equipment lost could well explain why a Russian unit would be attempting a river crossing without the necessary force needed to make it successful.
Finally, we used to track very carefully the so-called training cycles for the Soviet conscripts. There is a very real possibility the Russians have gone deep into the experience barrel in conducting operations to this point and it would not surprise to find that these forces being decimated are now thinly manned by replacement troops who we used to describe as being “challenged to reach the pedals.”
Much like what happened in Syria when Russian and Syrian forces-but described as mercs in the tradition of the little green men in Ukraine of the winky, winky variety-tested a small US military security force of some 30 special operators-guarding the Conoco Gas Plant and got their little green cundingies handed to them, the Russian Army is simply not “all that and a bag of chips.”
Despite what our student of white rage believed-maybe the worst prognosticator when it comes to military and foreign policy with the exception of his commander in chief, first the most woke GEN Milley was flabbergasted and never expected the Afghanistan government and security forces would fall in 11 days-but of course he was the one singing their praises to congress right up to the point where they collapsed. Now we are about 3 months into watching a battle continue to unfold that he told congress would be over within 72 hours.
With advisors like he and SECDEF Austin-who missed the rise of ISIS and the re-establishment of the ISIS Caliphate on his watch while US CENTCOM Commander, and then did not resign as our Afghanistan withdrawal went into the toilet, it is easy to feel sorry for Lesko Brandon who has surrounded himself with what appear to be dimwits and lightweights. But much like Obama before him, Biden seems to be surrounding himself with folks in his own image-and you only have to look at the aforementioned pentagon officials, his cackling vice president, and secretary of state to realize why and how we came to be in a position where Ukraine is into its 3d month of Russian mischief with no resolution on the horizon.
Personally-it seems odd to read about winning or losing in Ukraine while one side is simply trying to survive and the other seems hell bent on not letting that happen. What does winning in Ukraine mean for the Russians? It is certainly clear on the Ukraine side….
14 May 2022
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Is it possible that maybe Ukraine is much more motivated than anyone expected, and that Russia has been greatly overrated since the fall of the Soviet Union, an idea we clung to believing that the old Soviet Union had superior, but in reality, their implements were vastly inferior?
As far as our military leadership goes, decades of rot induced by leftist ideas and social experimentation, not even having to have been forced on a leadership model that has, as its primary function only to keep their jobs, makes for the possibility of this Biden induced war(in my opinion) to just reduce our military to a day care facility, and further the down a few notches, as Obama wanted.
I really hope the Ukrainians are beating the Russians, if only I could find accurate reporting. That’s hard to do, still.
Thanks for reading. The reporting has been dreadful, but the conflict goes on…that is a metric all its own that indicts Milley and Austin’s “72-hour Russian victory” testimony to congress….