Figure Source: https://www.voanews.com/a/6224958.html

Winston Churchill said, “Russia is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma.” I suspect China goes even further. The enigma is wrapped in a coded manuscript like the Voynich Manuscript. It still maintains the fig leaf of communism with all the trappings, to include the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), but in reality it is a fascist, mercantilist state. As with many things, if you listen to just their words, you miss the significant change. They want you to miss it and keep buying their products. If you want to understand China, you have to look at their actions.

And their actions have been uniformly hostile to the west. Some examples include:

• The fentanyl crisis it started that is killing thousands of Americans (see The Fentanyl Attack).
• Chinese products have poisoned Americans.
• Highly mercantilist policies in Africa and Latin America, as well as their Belt and Road initiative.
• Chinese companies that are controlled by the CCP acquire western companies and then use them to pursue Chinese interests. A good example is Smithfield Hams.
• China’s increasing aggressive maritime policies and actions in key choke points and resource zones, such as the Spratley Islands and now their basing deal with the Solomon Islands.
• China is buying up ports. They now control over 100 ports in 63 countries. This includes the Panama Canal and other high volume and strategically located ports.
• China is conducting aggressive cyber attacks against the west.
• China is conducting extensive commercial and military espionage and stealing technology.

Now, I understand China has the same right to a National Security Strategy as the US and other countries. But when their policies and actions erode western interests, the situation gets dicey. When attack western interests with cyber and other means, are acts of war. That is especially true in the age of Multidomain Operations (MDO). MDO is an explicit recognition of Clausewitz’s maximum (On War, vol 1) that “war is a mere continuation of policy by another means.” China, the home of Sun Tzu, has understood this maxim for thousands of years.

China is not a benign player. It is a dangerous adversary that seeks global power. But power is not really an end in itself. It is a means to achieve ends. So what are China’s strategic ends? Perhaps going back to 1421 may help shed some light on China’s actions.

I first came across references to China’s naval prowess in Jared Diamond’s Guns, Germs, and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies. He mentioned in a discourse on the power of one man to change a country. He noted that construction of China’s huge ships was deforesting China and the emperor order the navy dissolved and ceased shipbuilding. Gavin Menzies, in 1421: The Year China Discovered America, provides a history of China’s powerful navy and exploration until it stopped.

China is simply returning to its historical drive to dominate trade and spread its influence throughout the world. While their navy is still growing and not really a power projection platform is very much of an area denial platform can control key Sea Lines of Communications (SLOC). This ties in nicely with their control of major ports and chokepoints.

The Chinese then use this power to wrest trade and technical concessions from multinational corporations (MNC) that want to do business in China. China potentially has greater influence over US-based MNCs than the US has. They do this with foreign governments as well. China owns $1.06 trillion in US Treasuries, equally 3.5% of total US debt. While this fact is sobering by itself, when we look globally, the picture is even more interesting. China is the largest lender in developing world. And many of these projects have tentacles into Europe. As I noted in Thoughts on Ukraine Part12, China is Ukraine’s largest trading partner and had plans for extensive rail networks to better tie Europe to China.

There is a term for this strategy: mercantilism. China uses its corporations as a means to extend its control of resources and food and bring them back to China for production. That is exactly what does on with China’s acquisition of Smithfield Hams, for example. Many of China’s companies are the modern equivalent of the British East India Company and the Hudson Bay Company.

And if China can control Siberia’s resources, the picture will get even starker.

The question is whether or not China can sustain this strategy.

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