A glorious victory for Trump
By all measures, Election Day was a stellar night for President-elect Donald Trump. His victory surpassed all expectations. He swept the battleground states: Arizona (+6.2), Georgia (+2.2), Michigan (+1.4), Nevada (+3.1), North Carolina (+3.3), Pennsylvania (+2.1), and Wisconsin (+0.8). He even won the popular vote by more than 3 points. The last Republican candidate to do so was former President George W. Bush in 2004.
Trump predictably dominated in red states, including Florida, where he won by double digits. Likewise, he won Iowa by 13.2 points despite the shock poll from the Des Moines Register’s Ann Selzer that dropped the weekend before the election. Her poll showed that Vice President Kamala Harris was ahead of Trump by 3 points in the Hawkeye State. Given Selzer’s long history of accuracy and integrity, the poll caused quite a stir.
Naturally, Democrats pounced on the news. If the poll was accurate, they thought, then maybe Trump was losing in other reliably red states. Why, Harris might even win the election by a landslide.
Their hopes were dashed, and Selzer’s reputation smashed, when it became clear she’d missed the mark by 16.3 points. This poll will live in infamy, right alongside the ABC News/Washington Post poll that showed Biden ahead of Trump in Wisconsin by 17 points the week before the 2020 election.
Trump also outperformed expectations in several deep blue states. In some cases, he cut the size of his 2020 losses in half. For example, four years ago, Trump lost New York to President Joe Biden by 23.2 points. In 2024, he narrowed the gap to 11.2 points. CBS News reported Trump won 30% of the vote in New York City, which is the biggest margin for a Republican candidate since Ronald Reagan in 1984.
Trump’s gains in the Big Apple were in part due to a deliberate effort by his campaign to win over urban voters that most Republican candidates ignore. In town for his “hush money” trial in May, for example, Trump held a rally in the South Bronx which drew a huge crowd. And although the event will be remembered by many for an unfortunate joke told by an insult comedian, Trump also held a massive rally at Madison Square Garden in October.
Trump’s gains in urban areas trickled down across the eastern seaboard. In 2020, Trump lost New Jersey by 15.8 points. In 2024, the gap was just 5.4 points. Just as in New York City, Trump held a giant outdoor rally in Wildwood, New Jersey in May which reportedly drew 100,000 supporters.
Similarly, Trump cut his 2020 loss of 16.9 points in Illinois to 9 points in 2024. And in California, he narrowed his 2020 loss of 29.2 points to 19.3 points.
A Democrat might look at these changes and blame low enthusiasm for Harris. But I look at these numbers and see an expanding electoral map and a growing coalition.
There’s no question that a significant political realignment has occurred in America. The makeup of both major parties has changed dramatically over the past decade. Democrats have become the party of the educated elites and the wealthy. As a result, working class voters, once an integral part of their membership, have been drifting away for years. This was made clear by the Teamsters union’s decision not to endorse a candidate. According to Fox News, this was the first time in more than 25 years that union leadership did not endorse a candidate in a presidential race.
One of the biggest stories of the 2024 election cycle was that nonwhite working class voters have begun leaving the Democratic Party, too.
Reacting to the election results on X, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) wrote: “It should come as no great surprise that a Democratic Party which has abandoned working class people would find that the working class has abandoned them. First, it was the white working class, and now it is Latino and Black workers as well. While the Democratic leadership defends the status quo, the American people are angry and want change. And they’re right.”
Clearly, the Trump campaign recognized this trend early on and capitalized on it. Republicans should focus their attention on this group to expand their coalition even further.
By the numbers
Just look at the numbers. Trump’s support increased in nearly every demographic group this year. Most notably, he carried 45% of the Latino vote, a 13-point gain from 32% in 2020. Although Harris won 53% of the Latino vote, that’s 7 points lower than Biden’s 60% share four years ago.
Based on data from the 2024 Fox News Voter Analysis, Harris led Trump among women by a margin of 53% to 46%, a 7-point gap. Among men, Trump won by a margin of 54% to 43%, an 11-point gap.
Back in 2020, Biden won women by a margin of 55% to 43%, a 12-point gap. Harris’s 7-point gap pales in comparison. Harris won 2% fewer women than Biden did, and Trump increased his 2020 vote share among women by 3 points.
Biden also fared better than Harris among women under 30. This group supported Biden over Trump by 32 points in 2020, but supported Harris over Trump in 2024 by just 18 points.
Among male voters in 2020, Trump won by a margin of 51% to 46%, a 5-point gap. Once again, Harris underperformed Biden’s results. Men under 30 supported Biden over Trump by 15 points in 2020, but remarkably supported Trump over Harris by 14 points in 2024.
Among nonwhite voters, Harris led Trump by 35 points. Biden’s margin was 48 points in 2020.
Among black voters, Harris led by 67 points, 16 points lower than Biden’s 83-point margin in 2020.
This year, Trump won 16% of the total black vote. However, among black men, he won 24%.
The bottom line is that in 2024, Trump outperformed his 2020 results and Harris underperformed Biden’s.
This is not to say that Biden should have remained the Democratic nominee. Former Obama aide and co-host of Pod Save America Jon Favreau revealed on Friday that the Biden campaign’s internal polls in the weeks before he withdrew from the race showed him losing to Trump by 400 electoral votes.
“Joe Biden’s decision to run for president again was a catastrophic mistake. It just was,” Favreau concluded.
Favreau is right, of course. And we can only wonder if former President Barack Obama agrees.
“Joe Biden’s decision to run for president again was a catastrophic mistake.” – @JonFavs
Listen to more Pod Save America wherever you get your podcasts. pic.twitter.com/nhtO9hs4aA— Pod Save America (@PodSaveAmerica) November 8, 2024
Harris wrongly believed abortion would save her
Part of Harris’s struggle stemmed from her campaign’s overreliance on abortion as a motivating issue. It is true that the reversal of Roe v. Wade in June 2022 galvanized Democrats and helped the party head off the much anticipated red wave. But it is now clear that, more than two years later, abortion access is not a top priority for most voters.
And yet abortion was Harris’s only issue. She warned voters that Trump would push for a national abortion ban, despite his repeated assurances that he would not. As a result, many young women actually believe that Trump’s win means they not only will lose access to abortion, but they will lose access to birth control.
Indeed, the number of young women posting woeful messages on social media about losing their reproductive rights since the election is astounding. One 20-something-year-old posted a photo of herself on Instagram looking absolutely wretched. She wrote: “I am tired. My heart hurts. I just spent $300+ on OTC birth control and Plan B for the next year or so to be prepared for all of my rights to be taken away. I will not back down, but I am exhausted. I just booked an appointment at Planned Parenthood before it disappears. WTF are we doing America?”
This woman obviously still believes the hype Harris sold her or she wouldn’t have spent $300 on birth control. And she’s not alone. Similar posts abound on every social media platform.
Voters were smarter than Democrats thought they were
Ultimately, despite the media’s elevation of Harris to rockstar status, and despite Democrats’ relentless fearmongering and gaslighting, voters overwhelmingly chose Trump — across every demographic, and in every part of the country.
They chose America First over America Last and common sense over insanity. Trump’s resounding victory was a collective shout of “Enough.”
Trump’s coalition has strengthened as the Democrats’ has weakened. A coalition consisting of well-educated and affluent citizens who are concentrated in large coastal cities will not win them many elections.
How did such a highly educated, elite, and enlightened bunch not see this coming?
A previous version of this article appeared in the Washington Examiner.
If you enjoyed this article, then please REPOST or SHARE with others; encourage them to follow AFNN. If you’d like to become a citizen contributor for AFNN, contact us at managingeditor@afnn.us Help keep us ad-free by donating here.
Substack: American Free News Network Substack
Truth Social: @AFNN_USA
Facebook: https://m.facebook.com/afnnusa
Telegram: https://t.me/joinchat/2_-GAzcXmIRjODNh
Twitter: https://twitter.com/AfnnUsa
GETTR: https://gettr.com/user/AFNN_USA
CloutHub: @AFNN_USA