In the 1990’s, Steve Harrigan was an American student in Moscow when he asked CNN if they needed a translator. They did, and he was hired.
He ended up in Grozny, the capital city of Chechnya, where he witnessed a precursor of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Here’s what happened there:
“The 1999–2000 battle of Grozny was the siege and assault of the Chechen capital Grozny by Russian forces, lasting from late 1999 to early 2000. The siege and fighting left the capital devastated. In 2003, the United Nations called Grozny the most destroyed city on Earth. Between 5,000 and 8,000 civilians were killed during the siege, making it the bloodiest episode of the Second Chechen War.” (Source)
Recently, Harrigan, now a senior FOX News war correspondent, was asked on-air: “Is this country [Ukraine] going to end up the same way?” He answered:
“Chechenia may be a model for what we’re seeing now. If it is, it’s a horrible model. It’s basically: surround the city; shell it; kill everyone; and then pave it over and rebuild it. It might take a decade. It might take twenty years. But if a war goes on, one thing I noticed in Chechenia that might happen in this war, too, is that people change. The fighters on the ground change. If your houses are getting destroyed, if your family members are getting killed, you fight differently. The sphere of battle gets wider. You attack schools, like they did in Moscow [and] Beslan. Fears. Terror attacks. This kind of a war that goes on. People change. They get a little crazy.”
Bill Hemmer asked: “What you’re saying is that Ukrainians will change.”
Yes, that is exactly what he was saying.
The interview continues and Harrigan, when asked “How far will Putin go,” says:
“I think your assumption is the one that people make. And that is that Putin’s like you. Putin thinks like you. Like celebrities are [think] like us. Fascist dictators are not like us. He’s going to keep going. It’s a different mindset. One of his aides in the Chechenia War said, ‘It might take forty years, but in the scheme of history that’s not a long time.’”
The interview continues, and is worth hearing, as the FOX on-air pundits speculate as to “what’s in Putin’s mind.” And how the younger generation in Russia will respond.
Meanwhile, most of the American media is busy reporting on causalities, recruiting retired generals to speculate on Putin’s next move, debating the role of NATO, parsing the disposition of old Russian jets offered by Poland for more modern U.S. equipment, and tracking the plight of Ukraine civilians fleeing with their families, while fathers remain behind to fight.
All very important to know, but only for immediate analysis. Harrigan looked beyond the now.
The politicians in the West are bit players in what will likely be a long-running saga of death and carnage.
The Biden administration is staffed by wartime novices.
Romney and Graham think Poland’s jets could turn the tide against Russia. Neither has seen war.
Meanwhile, here is the irony: The World War II Battle for Stalingrad opened the path for Germany losing World War II. The Wehrmacht turned the city into rubble. That gave the Russians overhead cover to resist until the German forces surrendered.
True, the Russians were able to be supply the city from the west, at great risk to those who brought in materiel and soldiers.
But a supply path may also emerge for Ukraine long enough to bring lethal damage to the Russian forces.
Putin’s siege of Kiev may be a redux of the fate of the German Wehrmacht in the Battle for Stalingrad.
But if not, other venues for Ukrainian retaliation will open elsewhere. Perhaps within Russia.
Because it is not wise to anger some people.
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Thanks for the good commentary. I always Steve Harrigan was the best of all the current correspondents in dangerous places.