A short time ago I wrote a couple pieces on President Zelenskyy and his chances of rolling the hard six and by doing so, defeating Vladimir Putin’s ill-advised military adventure in Ukraine.
Read: Zelensky Can Win (Part 1)
Read: Zelensky Can Win (Part 2)
I have been somewhat loath to write on the tactical and operational aspects of this fight, as my former boss, good friend and fellow Infantryman, Bill Crews, AKA “Streiff” over at Red State, has been doing a bang-up job of this. If you are interested in real, no-kiddin’ military analysis far better than the talking heads on the networks, you can see his entire article cache here.
My focus has been instead, on the strategic and political levels. In this case, I will once again leverage off of Streiff’s thoughts. This past Saturday, he published two pieces that tie together nicely. In the first, Ukraine President Zelensky Sets His Terms to End Russia’s Aggression in Ukraine and Vladimir Putin Isn’t Laughing, he wrote about how President Zelenskyy isn’t intending on giving up an inch of ground to settle with Putin.
The most important takeaway from this is that President Zelensky feels that he will prevail. While Russia has backed off the demands for disbanding the Ukrainian armed forces and changing the regime in Kiev in favor of a land grab along the Black Sea, Zelensky’s terms have hardened.
It is said however, that talk is cheap. It’s actions that matter, which brings us to Streiff’s second piece, Ukraine’s Attacks on Snake Island Hint That Russia’s Black Sea Fleet’s Influence on the War May Be Over. It’s a good explainer on one important aspect of the operational art of war. I draw your attention to this particular part (emphasis mine):
For the past week, we’ve seen the Ukrainians begin a deep shaping operation directed at Snake Island. “Deep” and “shaping” are not merely adjectives; they are terms of art. A deep operation seeks to disrupt uncommitted enemy forces. Depth can be defined in terms of distance or in the time it would take for the uncommitted forces to reach the battlefield. A shaping operation sets the conditions for success in the commander’s planned decisive operation.
To put point on it, “shaping operations” are rarely if ever used by forces reeling, demoralized, about to be overrun and defeated in detail. Shaping operations are all about commanders setting the proper conditions for decisive operations…usually offensive operations. More importantly, they are not directed by Presidents who are about to make major concessions to an enemy who has savagely brutalized his population. What this particular shaping operation indicates to me, is that Zelenskyy along with his senior staff, believe they can win this and are setting conditions for that victory. I agree.
Returning to Streiff’s first piece, again, emphasis mine:
Right now, neither side is in the mood to talk about a cease-fire; the only people calling for a ceasefire are the Putin-bots watching the Russians get their clock cleaned and trying to preserve their man-god’s aura of invincibility.
Neither side is calling for a cease-fire, except certain pundits, who are irrelevant and can be easily ignored. However, this can change rapidly when a critical mass of women and religious leaders start calling for “compromise to end the killing.” Of course, ”It’s for the children,” will also play a role in that call.
This is what Zelenskyy has to guard against. It is quite natural, especially given the nature of Russian brutality against Ukrainian civilians, for people to want the carnage to stop. It’s quite natural, even to the point of “compromise.” In this case however, compromise cannot be the answer. At this point, it is what Putin is counting on to save some modicum of face. However, compromising with him an any form will merely encourage him to try this type of thing again and perhaps against a less determined opponent.
As I stated in a previous piece, the only negotiation that needs take place, is:
- How soon there is a complete Russian withdrawal of all Russian Forces from Ukrainian territory, including Crimea.
- The manner, duration and amount of restitution and;
- The manner, targets and location of war crimes tribunals.
Zelensky can win this. He needs only to stay the course, while ignoring pundits, administration officials and others who would have him snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory.
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After I do my best to sort through all the reporting about Ukraine, most of which I believe to be lies, I’m left with this kind of reporting, which indicates to me that Ukraine is currently, and for quite a while, has been more on the offense than has been usually reported.
I think the media has its hands full making up how their agenda fits whatever it is meant to, and has rather feeble access to data about the fighting. I know the so-called Youtube reporting is mostly made up of one clip being repeated for fifteen minutes, which may or may not be from the last week or the last month.
I think Ukraine is actually winning, already, and behind the scenes, there is a lot of trying to figure out a good way for Putin to save face, and power.
“It is quite natural, especially given the nature of Russian brutality against Ukrainian civilians, for people to want the carnage to stop. It’s quite natural, even to the point of “compromise.” In this case however, compromise cannot be the answer.”
Amen to that!
I am so tired of hearing ‘diplomats’ saying that we need to pause the war without anybody mentioning that Russia must, must, must get out of Ukraine because, you know, it’s not their country.