Putting paid to the pronouncements of political and military pundits, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has led the armed forces of Ukraine in a successful resistance to a Russian onslaught predicted to be finished in 3-5 days, with Zelenskyy living in exile. As I noted yesterday, we are now the better part of two months into this and rather than occupying Kiev, the Russians have retreated 70 miles to “refit, rearm, as all operational objectives having been met.”
Read: Zelenskyy Can Win (Part 1)
As I also noted Wednesday, it’s still too early to be celebrating. However, it is way past time to be talking about, “What’s next and when?” for Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian people. First, let’s have a look at where we were and where we are.
My friend and fellow Infantryman, Streiff turned me on to this little gem on Twitter.
Maximum extent of Russian advance in UKR compared to today. pic.twitter.com/EaCB0lkaLJ
— streiff (@streiffredstate) April 7, 2022
nbsp;
Here is a blow-up of the two maps.
Image: Streiff TweetNote where the Russian advance had progressed and note where the Russian forces are now. Doesn’t look very much like the, speedy, overwhelming blowout predicted by the chattering class and armchair generals. Given the original Russian objectives of taking Kiev, deposing President Zelenskyy and installing a puppet regime, it would appear that the offensive has failed on all counts but one, the establishment of a land bridge to Crimea. And that one is increasingly in doubt.
So what’s next for the Russians and for the Zelenskyy government? At this point and absent some significant injection of fresh, experienced troops, there appears to be only one (possibly) viable direction of advance for Putin’s Army. At least that’s what the battlefield geometry and Russian actions appear to indicate. From my foxhole, it looks a lot like Putin has decided to stop supporting failure (attack on Kiev) and instead, according to old Soviet doctrine, reenforce (from his point of view) success. In this case, “success” is in the Donbas region where the Russian have still not taken Mariupol, but the Ukrainians have not tossed them out either…yet.
As I mentioned previously, from the very beginning, the presumption among all the pundits has been that it wasn’t whether Zelenskyy/Ukraine was going to give up territory, and autonomy. It was abut how much. Even given the radically changed correlation of forces, there are some who keep insisting that Putin will get what he wants out of this.
Russian forces have been significantly attritted. They are unlikely to be restored to anywhere near full combat effectiveness in the foreseeable future. They are also unlikely to be reenforced with experienced individual troops or unit sets. On the other hand, Ukrainian forces, including the civilian volunteer militia, are growing in numbers and capability. Couple of high profile attacks on key targets inside Russia, have demonstrated that they are still much more capable than a mere civilian militia with hunting rifles, doomed to be overrun by a Russian juggernaut.
There is one more aspect, ephemeral, but possibly more important than the raw numbers of troops, tanks, helicopters and tube artillary. Morale, Will-to-Win. The Ukrainians have, and in spades. From the President Zelenskyy down to the babushka in the street excoriating armed Russian soldiers, they have it. That morale, boosted by several battlefield successes is being fed by a white hot anger at the atrocities the Russians have been inflicting on the civilian population, including children.
Then there are the Russians…the 1-year conscripts who were told next to nothing abut what they were in Ukraine to do…and what they were told, turned out to be lies. Instead of wearing their dress uniforms for a victory parade through Kiev, they have been forced to retreat 70 miles to the Northern border of Ukraine, with the unhappy prospect of being once again shown into the cauldron in a reinforcement effort in Donbas. No matter where Putin draws other reinforcing resources from, they will not be as uninformed as the initial forces. They will be well aware of previous failures and even more aware of Ukrainian determination to defend their homes.
At this point, if I am President Zelenskyy, I’m becoming even more adamant that I will cede no territory to Russia…including the illegally occupied Crimea. If I am Zelenskyy, the only negotiation I’m interested in, is the timing of the complete Russian withdrawal and the manner and amount of Russian reparations for the war crimes Putin ordered his armed forces to commit.
Follow AFNN:
Truth Social: @AFNN_USA
Facebook: https://m.facebook.com/afnnusa
Telegram: https://t.me/joinchat/2_-GAzcXmIRjODNh
Twitter: https://twitter.com/AfnnUsa
GETTR: https://gettr.com/user/AFNN_USA
CloutHub: AFNN_USA
“There is one more aspect, ephemeral, but possibly more important than the raw numbers of troops, tanks, helicopters and tube artillery.”
For a number of weeks now I have been watching the Ukrainians maul the Russian armor in places like Irpin and Bucha (the Ukrainians pushed the Russians back three times through both of those cities) and, being an analyst in real life I wonder if we aren’t missing something in our balance of forces calculations.
One site I saw totaled up the number of anti-tank weapons that have been given to the Ukrainians and, although there’s a wide mix of systems in sophistication, they arrived at a total of 27,000 anti-tank weapons that have either been given to the Ukrainians or will be arriving soon.
From what I can tell, two or three man teams armed with MANPADS are, in many ways, equivalent, or in many environments superior, to a tank, firepower-wise. Without a screening force for the tanks to protect them, the teams can maneuver in ways that tanks can’t and they can do it while being stealthier than columns of tanks. In well-planned ambush positions I’d almost think that I’d rather be toting a MANPAD than I would be riding in a tank.
It just seems to me that it would be interesting to either wait until the war is over and analyze the way the MANPADS were used in Ukraine or… and this is the approach I’d like to see, conduct some war games over in, say, our Fort Irwin desert training center and see if they couldn’t come up with an answer to how effective teams of MANPAD assassins (so to speak) can be and how you’d use them to maximum effectiveness.
Anyway… it just doesn’t seem to me that what we’re seeing about the use of these weapons systems in the hands of the Ukrainians completely captures the strategic and tactical balance and results in this war and… maybe, just maybe… the reason why so many experts have gotten it wrong is that we haven’t really given proper weight to some of the weapons systems that we’ve been nice enough to give to the Ukrainians in great abundance.
My buddy Streiff over at Red State notes that the Russians are keeping to the roads….that in and of itself demonstrates and causes issues.
Staying close to the roads certainly makes the it easier to use the MANPADS, that’s for sure.
A buddy on a mil-centric gunboard posted a comment describing it as “Putin’s Bargain Basement Barbarossa has turned out to be less Blitzkrieg and more Schitt’s Creek.”
As each day goes by, Zelensky is becoming more resolved to not cede an inch of territory, and has mentioned taking back Crimea, at least once.
All those absolutely fabulous US military leaders, active and retired, who have claimed that Ukraine would fall, are beginning to eat crow. That’s what happens when a bunch of thugs try to do to you what they did, before, as in what Stalin did to its breadbasket. And what a Romanov or two tried to do to them.
Ukraine has been down this path a lot of times in the past. Now they have a leader who has a backbone and a willing civilian population who don’t wish to see their country become another conquered land, once again.
The one thing that really angers me is that Biden has claimed to have forced a lot of sanctions, that aren’t really sanctions, like what the EU and several European countries have done, and Biden and the media have made their share of claims of how they have helped Ukraine, which is a load of nonsense.
Then, there is that thing about a people who have had a taste of freedom, as Machiavelli proffered, to The Prince. Interesting how Volodomor is Ukrainian for Prince, and Vladimir is Russian for the same, isn’t it? I wonder who will be the one who lives up to their name? My bet is on Volodomor.