With the exception of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, it is widely expected that Republicans will win control of the House next month. Victory for the party in the Senate, however, is far less certain. But if recent shifts toward the GOP in two key battleground states continue, it just may happen.
In Wisconsin, Republican Sen. Ron Johnson was trailing his opponent, Mandela Barnes, by 1.7 points in mid-September. In the past few weeks, Johnson has pulled ahead decisively in that race. The RealClearPolitics average of polls now shows Johnson leading by 3 points. Out of the last six polls in this race, Johnson leads in five and is tied with Barnes in one.
It’s worth noting that right up until the 2016 election, Johnson trailed his opponent, longtime former Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold by 2.7 points, but won the race by 3.4 points.
Both RCP and data website 270toWin are projecting that Johnson will win reelection. Axios’ political analyst Josh Kraushaar acknowledged Johnson’s momentum in the race.
Kraushaar cited a new Fox News poll which showed Johnson up by four points and noted that just one month ago, Fox had Barnes up by four. The poll also found that 44 percent of respondents consider Barnes’ views to be “too extreme,” up a whopping 14 points from the previous month.
Moreover, the poll uncovered a significant enthusiasm gap between the two candidates. Just 50 percent of Barnes’ backers said they supported him enthusiastically, a drop of seven points from last month, compared to 68 percent of Johnson’s supporters.
Despite the shift in momentum, Democrats refuse to give up on this race just yet. Barnes spokeswoman Maddy McDaniel told Axios, “This race is neck and neck despite Ron Johnson and his dark-money donors spending millions on a smear campaign against Mandela Barnes. The GOP’s fear-mongering playbook failed them last cycle and it will fail again this cycle.”
And Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spokesman David Bergstein said, “All cycle long we’ve been preparing for our battleground races to be extremely competitive, and in the final month we’re going to continue taking nothing for granted.”
Kraushaar also recognizes there’s been a major shift in momentum toward Republican candidate Dr. Mehmet Oz in the Pennsylvania Senate race. He and the state’s current lieutenant governor, John Fetterman, are vying for the open seat currently held by Republican Sen. Pat Toomey, who is retiring.
As of Wednesday, the RCP average of polls in this race has Fetterman ahead by 4.3 points. But throughout the summer, Fetterman held a high single-digit lead over the Trump-backed Oz. In late July, a Fox poll showed Fetterman ahead by 11 points. Fox’ latest poll shows Fetterman up by just four. Similarly, in late August, polling group Franklin and Marshall had Fetterman up by 13 points. In a recent survey, his lead had dwindled to 4 points.
Until recently, Democrats saw this seat as a likely pickup. On Tuesday, The Cook Political report moved this race from “leans Democrat” to a tossup. RCP rates this seat as a GOP hold.
A Democratic congressman told Axios, “This will be a 50-50 race, and it will determine control of the U.S. Senate.”
Kraushaar attributes the shift in voter sentiment away from Barnes and Mandela to their soft-on-crime positions. He writes, “Barnes came out against cash bail during the primary, and since winning the nomination has been slammed relentlessly by Republicans for being soft on crime. Likewise, the bulk of Republican attack ads against Fetterman have focused on his role in pushing for clemency while leading the Pennsylvania Board of Pardons. Under Fetterman’s leadership, the number of inmates serving life sentences who were recommended for an early release increased significantly.”
Oz needs to keep hammering Fetterman on crime. During a 2020 interview, journalist Jason Flom asked him, “If you had a magic wand and you could wave it and fix one thing, what would it be?”
Without missing a beat, he replied, “Life without parole in Pennsylvania. We could save billions in revenue long term. We could save thousands of lives and not make anyone less safe. And also expunge as many permanent records of people that have been living their best lives and have been paying well beyond when they should have for a charge that they caught, you know, 10, 15, 20 years ago.”
Fixing “life without parole in Pennsylvania” was more important to this man than, say, job creation, access to quality healthcare for all, or making our streets safer. Considering Fetterman supports the immediate release of one-third of all prison inmates in the state, this shouldn’t surprise us.
Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich joined Fox News’ Sean Hannity on Tuesday night to weigh in on the midterms. He said, “By any reasonable standard, Fetterman is a nut. Only the modern Democratic Party could have carried him all the way to the senatorial nomination. And when you look at his record of 25 times voting to release murderers who nobody else on the Parole Board would vote for.” [Timestamp: 1:48]
After citing the spike in crime in the state, Gingrich said his brother, who lives in Pennsylvania, believes Oz is going to win because, “[I]n the end, he’s [Oz] the candidate of lower prices, … affordable gasoline, … energy jobs in western Pennsylvania, and he’s the candidate of locking up criminals and protecting the innocent.” [Timestamp: 2:30]
Of course, the biggest issue of all in this race maybe Fetterman’s health. He suffered a stroke in May and has been reluctant to share a full medical report with voters.
Other races in the tossup column include New Hampshire, which is a long-shot for the GOP; Arizona, also unlikely, but possible; and Georgia, a race which could truly go either way.
In Georgia, Democratic incumbent Raphael Warnock is polling ahead of his Republican challenger, NFL great Herschel Walker, by 1.3 points, according to RCP. Walker trailed by as much as 10 points this summer when revelations of his illegitimate children and history of mental health problems surfaced, but he has rebounded strongly over the past month.
On Monday night, however, The Daily Beast reported that in 2009, the pro-life Walker paid for his then-girlfriend to get an abortion. This was followed by another story in The Daily Beast which said his adult son, Christian Walker, had lashed out at his father on Twitter for lying. Walker has vehemently denied these allegations, and there are still five weeks to go, but this could hurt him.
The bottom line is, if Republicans can win in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, they stand a good chance of taking back the Senate. If, in addition to winning these two races, they also prevail in Ohio, North Carolina, and Nevada, all states in which GOP candidates currently lead, they will win the Senate.
A previous version of this article appeared in The Western Journal.
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Pretty quick and nimble of the pollsters to have ready made polling right on he heels of the Hershel Walker debacle, wouldn’t you say?
Almost like it got baked in the same oven.
Someone might recall Warlock had his own problems with his family, in the public eye, in 2020, but no one remembers that.
Yeh, let’s take another narrative hot off the press, and run with it, cause Hershel, he don’t speak so well as the communist incumbent.
If this costs Hershel, then there are a lot of gullible and flat out stupid Georgians. Hershel got hit in the head with a bronze football, by the left.