President Trump sending in the National Guard is a bold initiative, a temporary surge, and a band-aid that doesn’t fix the crime problem. Glad for his action, yet I’m wanting state and local fixes. Unfortunately, there’s no paying, powerful constituency to move Virginia’s General Assembly to action. So, here’s a look how to analyze what should be done.
First, is there are new crisis or the usual case for way too much crime round here?
America and, especially “Hey You – Virginia”, do you want to solve crimes, slow crimes, or stop crime? What you want makes a difference on what your government does.
And, how much of the crime problem is caused by mental illness or addictions or fatherlessness or pagan secularism or criminal free will?
Ask the right questions if you want to get the best answers.
Even before that, describe what is happening.
Like what is the demographic profile of crime look like. Make graphics.
If there are 8.7m Virginians and the marginal propensity to be a criminal among men – at this point in time with our current culture in the Commonwealth – is roughly 10% of the 2.5m Virginia men that means 250k men, ages 18-60, have committed criminal behavior.
Disaggregate that number by type of criminal offenses.
If roughly 25k men are locked up in Virginia, then about 1 in 100 men who have committed crimes are incarcerated currently. If, perhaps, 2% of the men who commit crimes are too dangerous for their community, then double Virginia’s prisons and keep 50k men away from people they may harm.
Do the same math for how many mentally ill Virginians need to be locked up. Write laws that keep the judges from re-writing the will of the people and putting dangerous crazy people loose on the people. Restore and improve the mental hospitals to house these people.
Consider all the alternatives to locking up criminals and the insane to include strict supervision in halfway houses, education and training, many gradations of more limited impingements on freedom.
Consider all the alternatives for those who have broken the social contract so irrevocably that they’ve forfeited their right to life. Exile or execution?
After you do the math on how many people are in what categories of crime, mental illness, and addiction and estimate the costs for corrections. Corrections calculated in human resources, physical facilities, and programs.
Take a field trip to El Salvador and look at their numbers. Those won’t be our numbers or reach the totality of a multi-discipline solution. But, they show how to frame the problem in part.
Turn the news off. A temporary surge of National Guard troops is a band aid, not a cure.
Ultimately, real changes in the culture can truly change what crime remains. There will always be crime and addictions and mental illness, but the criminal outcomes can be severely reduced. That’s a separate subject to study, but intimately related to every social pathology.
Finally, is there one member of the Virginia General Assembly who’ll work with the next Attorney General and Governor to champion the study needed to give guidance for legislation?
[Crickets]
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