Kharg Island-America’s Coming Dien Bien Phu

Most Americans today have never heard of Dien Bien Phu. Yet, it was a pivotal battle in Vietnam a decade before the United States got formally involved in that war. In that operation played out in early 1954, French forces, supported by local militias, dropped an airborne assault group deep into Vietnam, just east of the upper Laos border. The goal was simple. Block the Viet Minh army from threatening Laos, who would then possibly leave the French orbit. The resulting battle proved a disaster for the French, and culminated in their exit from Vietnam and the creation of North and South Vietnam.

French journalist Bernard Fall listed four key reasons for the French defeat: 1) fighting a key battle so far from French supply and support; 2) underestimating the enemy’s capabilities; 3) having a tactical layout of the forces in Dien Bien Phu which left key parts isolated; 4) and most importantly, the overestimation of their own worth, the notion that the French could defeat any enemy.¹

And that brings me to Kharg Island.

Kharg Island is situated off the coast of Iran, and just south and east of Iraq and Kuwait. It is a small, flat plate of rock, only four kilometers long and two wide, surrounded by a hostile sea. Yet, it is the strategic hub of Iranian oil exportation, handling close to 90% of shipments. Up to ten tankers can line up and upload from its massive storage tanks on the south half of the island. Recently, American forces bombed portions of the island, but spared the oil tanks and loading facilities. The reason for this is simple… to cripple Iran’s ability to export oil would be a serious blow to the world’s oil supply. And even though Iran has effectively closed off the Strait of Hormuz to the south, they have allowed tankers taking oil to friendly countries like China to pass. Indeed, it is very probable that they have largely emptied the storage tanks on the island.

The above explains why the United States would want to capture… not destroy… Kharg Island. The thinking is simple. If the U.S. controls Iran’s ability to export its key cash product it will bring Iran to their knees and they will sue for peace, thus handing Iran’s oil to the Americans and denying it to China. Or so goes the assumption by American planners. However, I believe American planners are dead wrong, and if they go through with an invasion of Kharg Island they will set themselves up for their own Dien Bien Phu.

Just like Dien Bien Phu, Kharg Island is isolated from support and supply. The waters of the Persian Gulf around it, coupled with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, means that the only way of ingress and supply would be by air. It is also in easy range of artillery and missile fire from Iran. To make matters worse, there is no real cover and protection on the island. It is a tempting target… and a trap.

If I was a combat general in Iran, how would I defend Kharg Island? Initially, it must be understood that it cannot be defended. There are no serious defensive facilities there, and it’s devoid of cover. So, instead of defending it, I would use it as bait… to lead American forces to their own Dien Bien Phu.

First, I would have every square meter of the island already preregistered for artillery and rocket fire. Couple that with near-universal Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities, the island would be an open book. Second, I would empty out the storage tanks and fill them one-third to one-half with gasoline. The heat from the sun would cause the gasoline to vaporize in the tanks, making them massive napalm bombs waiting to ignite. Of course, I would turn off the oil tap to the island.

Now, you might ask, “wait a minute Russ! Are you saying you would preplan to blow up your own economic jewel in the Gulf?” Ahhh, yes indeed, because the Americans would not expect this. They will assume that I do not want to destroy my island. Thus, the Americans will underestimate me, their enemy. Concurrently, they are already overestimating their own abilities, the daily bluster of President Trump and Secretary of War Hegseth show this amply. They already act as if they have won. All they have to do is send in a flight of Ospreys with 500 Marines to land on the island, and in their mind it’s “game over.”

The next part of my plan would be to not seriously oppose their air landing.² I would offer some desultory fire, perhaps a few missiles that would be easily intercepted. I would encourage their arrogance.³ I would let them land. I would let them deploy. I would let them celebrate. I would lure him with bait… and then… I would massively strike.⁴

I would hit the island with 100 missiles, armed with one and two-ton warheads. The tanks would explode and hurl flaming fuel over the southern half of the island. The rest of the island would explode in massive fireballs and crippling concussive effects. And I would allow the Marines to burn and die… slowly. After all, didn’t America’s own General Sherman say that “war is cruelty, and you cannot refine it?”

And when the Ospreys return to reinforce the island and pick up their wounded, I would blast them as they land with missile fire, just as the Viet Minh chopped up a C-47 ambulance plane on the Dien Bien Phu airstrip. But they will keep coming, because the Neocons in American don’t have a reverse gear. They get angry and double down, sending more to die.

I would turn Kharg Island into a death trap for the arrogant Americans. Of course, it would also destroy the island. But it would cripple the economies of the rest of the western world for their hubris, even as I spend the next few years working hard with my neighbors in central Asia to develop a direct oil pipeline to China. I would humiliate the arrogant American military and send Donald Trump into political hellfire, because he launched a war of aggression on my nation… the very thing cited at the Nürnberg Trials as the first war crime of Nazi Germany in World War II.

But don’t worry, dear reader. American planners won’t read my article and avoid their own Dien Bien Phu. Rather, I fear that they will sadly fall right into it. One can only hope that Iran hasn’t planned to destroy Kharg Island when the Americans land on it.

But so far, Iran has out-foxed us strategically, and so I fear that they are prepared to do just that.

 

Russ Rodgers’ books can be found on Amazon.

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