Measuring the Red Wave

Everyone knows the Republicans will win some in the 2022 mid-term elections. The party opposite the President almost always does, but no-one knows how big the win will be in this rising Red Wave. Since politics is a business and getting elected is part of the profession, there’s tactics, techniques, and procedures to win elections. The measure of victory is the political math of votes gained when you rouse up your supporters, discourage your opponents, and convince people who are clueless.

“How high’s the water, Mama?” asked Johnny Cash in his song about the Mississippi flood of his youth. I can relate to the response in feet and “rising.” I live on the Chesapeake Bay. Water has flowed past my house six times in almost nine years. That’s why I raised it up seven feet on a foundation that will outlive me and my children.

Monday, October 3^rd, we’re supposed to get a seven foot high tide. At least a foot of water will rush around the home I call “Sanctuary.” Knowing how high’s the water is important to me and my neighbors. Likewise, measuring a wave election is vitally important.

While the estimates of tidal flooding aren’t perfect, but they’re pretty good, the measurements of wave elections are far less so. How people vote is more unpredictable than how wind, waves, and tide move water.

Voting is emotional. Ideologues, like yours truly, are the exception. Most people don’t vote for ideas, principles, or on facts. They vote as how what they see and hear settles in their heart and guts. So, the manifold reasons for voting for the Republicans, who claim to be Conservative, boils down to Make America Great Again. It’s been that way since Americans voted “No taxation without representation” and “We have no king, but Jesus” with their bullet box.

Most Americans don’t live and breath politics. Also, many Americans dislike politics intensely. Yet, they live lives that are impacted by politics daily and more deeply than their distaste for the blood sport. And, Americans are deeply divided on how they understand politics.

Frankly, while we are divided Left and Right – as Commie and Conservative, we are united in a common ignorance. Most folks don’t understand much about the civics and history that created the political storms that constantly swirl around America. Up until 2020, four out of ten voters didn’t bother to vote in a Presidential election. Many voting citizens are un-informed, mis-informed, and dis-informed. Ironically, both sides see the other side as cretins.

The Democrats see Deplorables. The Conservatives see Commies.

Yet, no one gets elected by scolding the voters as stupid. They win by ramping up their side, depressing the opponents, and convincing the mushy middle to go vote and vote for them.

The win, nationally and locally, is moving the middle of the electorate in every place that isn’t overwhelmingly Blue or Red. It isn’t the failed Establishment Republican way of washing down your rhetoric to bland, banal aphorisms. Think – McCain, Romney, Jeb Bush, etc.

Winning is persuading the persuadable. Getting the votes of those who vote “guns or butter” but aren’t conversant in either international relations or economics.

Enter, the professionals who get politicians elected. Politics is a business. Consequently, politicians have common skill set of one: Know how to win their election. The professionals are vital to that win.

Since voting is emotional, connecting to the voters at an emotional level matters. Making that connection takes money. It’s like selling any other product to the public. People have to see and hear about the new gizmo. They have to want the new gizmo. They have to make the personal calculation to buy (vote) the new gizmo.

This may seem obvious to the reader. But, it’s a bit of an epiphany for me after 30 years of activism in party politics. I didn’t understand how a big name appearance mattered in the last days of an election. Wasn’t everyone’s mind made up – like mine?

I worked in seven successful grassroots campaigns where we won while being outspent. Often by huge, like ten to one and beyond, margins. Those races were local and Congressional – one was regional.

But, I get it now, that the way to sell subtly to the sub-conscious or preach overtly, like a conversion of faith, is to sell constantly. Radio and TV ads matter. Bumper stickers matter. Signs matter. Social media really matters, because we are connected personally one to another by degrees of separation. A good meme well-posted carries weight in the circle of trust, respect, and affection of the sender.

Selling costs money. Hence, money is the mother’s milk of politics.

So, how high’s the Red Wave, America?

Given the facts of life since the Democrats have done so much damage in everything they’ve touched, the wave should be a tsunami.

Given that politics is a business and money moves votes, it’ll be a win, but not a total wipe out. The Liberal rich elites pump cash like wind whips up waves in every purple place. Their money reduces the Red Wave. Their social media suppresses the Conservatives. Their media and entertainment vilify Republicans.

And, there are two unknowns. What is the method and likely success for cheating? What will be the October Surprise?

The polls predict little until the very last polling cycle – which professional pollsters bend less to their predilections so they can claim more credit for accuracy after the votes are counted.

Measure the Red Wave through an election season of extended voting by calculating the ardor of Conservatives, the commitment of the Commies, and what’s the day to day living of the apolitical, ten to twenty per cent, middle voters.

How high will the water be in November, Mama

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