Yes, Actually, Crime Rates Can Be Brought Down!

St Louis, Missouri used to be our nations murder capital, but has been downgraded to second place behind New Orleans. The Gateway City saw a whopping 263 homicides in 2020, which, with the city’s population being 304,709 that year, the homicide rate was an astounding 86.31 per 100,000 population.

In 2021, the city dropped to a still horrible 199 murders, and, using 2021’s population guesstimate of 293,310, that works out to a homicide rate of a still horrible 67.85, but at least it’s improving.

As of October 6th of this year, St Louis has seen 154 murders in 278 days, which is on pace for 202.19 homicides for the year. With St Louis population for 2022 guesstimated to have slightly increased, to 298,034, the homicide rate works out to 68.11 per 100,000 population.

Philadelphia’s Democratic leadership have tried to blame the huge increase in homicides on just general stuff, saying that homicide is increasing everywhere, but the actual numbers from St Louis demonstrate that homicides, even one of our deadliest cities, can be reduced.

Part of the solution just might be simply telling the truth about murders. The Philadelphia Police Department issue a gross numbers daily update, while the St Louis report breaks down the statistics the police have. Of course, the statistics are very, very, very politically incorrect!

This year, murders in the City of Brotherly Love have been moving up steadily, and with 416 homicides as of 11:59 PM EDT on Thursday, October 6th, the city, at 1.4910 killings per day, is on pace for 544.22 murders in 2022, a slight improvement on last year’s 562, but still easily in second place all time.

Yeah, Mayor Jim Kenney, District Attorney Larry Krasner, and Police Commissioner Danielle Outlaw are doing what some older Kentuckians would have called a fine, fine, super-fine job.

This article is 10 months old now, but nothing has changed:

Turning the Tide on Gun Violence . . . Everywhere but Philly

Some big city mayors are saying enough is enough and are—finally—doubling down on smart policing and prosecution. Here in Philly? Not so much

by Larry Pratt | December 32, 2021

Last week started with our incredibly shrinking mayor releasing his annual holiday video message to the citizens of Philadelphia. A stirring call to arms in the middle of a gun violence crisis it was not. Instead, it had all the optics of a hostage video—the dour-faced protagonist, reading cue cards in a lifeless monotone, no doubt counting down the days, hours and minutes until he’s free. Someone arrange a ransom payment to Jim Kenney’s City Hall captors!

Watching, it was tempting to feel deflated. Two more years of Kenney fiddles while Philly burns? Breathe, I told myself. Turns out, inspiration was to be had last week, once I widened the aperture of my lens beyond the see-no-evil—and warring—triumvirate of Kenney, District Attorney Larry Krasner and MIA Police Commissioner Danielle Outlaw.

In fact, last week may turn out to be an inflection point in the war on murder and mayhem in our cities. On Tuesday, two former two-term mayors appeared at our Ideas We Should Steal Festival, and made one of the most full-throated arguments we’ve seen for investing in smart policing while reforming what needs fixing in law enforcement. As if a clarion call, within days two current big city progressive mayors delivered the same “enough is enough” message—a nuanced argument that you can be tough on crime and (be) just at the same time.

This is the problem: for ‘progressives,’ “reforming the police” means reducing policing, cutting policing, and, let’s be frank about this, eliminating a lot of laws as well. We saw that in Philadelphia, where the idiotic City Council approved the Driving Equality Act, which prohibits the police from stopping a vehicle for some specific “secondary offenses,” something which enabled carjackers like the ones who committed the Roxborough High School shooting to drive a stolen vehicle with an expired Delaware temporary paper tag. The City Council wanted to decriminalize ‘driving while black,’ but the cops can’t usually tell if a driver is black or white when they are behind a vehicle.

“It seems that there’s this notion that we can either reform the police or we can be safe, and I think that’s just bullshit,” former Mayor Michael Nutter said at the Festival. Under Nutter, Philadelphia posted its lowest murder rates in over 60 years, and he went on to paint a picture of how that gets done. “You have to do both. There’s a lot of focus on the numbers, but it’s not just numbers. There are people behind those numbers. Thats a life in this city. That’s a family that’s been damaged. That’s a neighborhood. When someone is shot or killed on a block, it is not just a personal incident. That entire block and community and neighborhood is affected. Those kids are going to have nightmares at night. Just washing down the sidewalk does not take away the trauma.”

That’s a mayor striking at the emotional heart of a searing issue, something we’ve seen far too little of recently. And then he shifted into game-plan mode: “I had a district attorney, Seth [Williams], who we could work with, and talk to,” he said. “Obviously, he had his other issues and challenges, but as DA, Seth Williams did a better job than the person who is in the job right now because he understood the importance of public safety. That partnership—of our administration, Commissioner Ramsey, the DA, the courts, the federal agencies, the A.G.’s office, the governor’s office, and citizens who said we are not gonna tolerate this shit going on in our neighborhoods—that’s why crime went down in Philadelphia.”

Kasim Reed, the charismatic two-term mayor of Atlanta who hired more than 900 cops during his tenure and lowered crime by nearly 40 percent while growing his city into an economic juggernaut, argued that those two things—safety and prosperity—go hand in hand. “When Mayor Nutter cut crime, you see a thriving economy run right on the tails of that because people believe in their hearts, the city is mine, too,” he said. “And murder and violence make you believe less and less that the city is yours. And fundamentally we’re at our best when everybody believes the city is ours.”

It was a great applause line that makes one wonder: Have we heard anything from our leaders that makes us want to applaud? Hell, they won’t even talk to one another. Kenney and Krasner snipe and snub, while the body bags pile up.

There’s more at the original, but it points out that some — certainly not all — major cities have cut their overall crime rates, and homicide rates specifically, by supporting law enforcement.

Why hasn’t Philly? Because the city has a District Attorney who is actually a defense lawyer, someone who wants to get criminals off the hook. Solutions like “Broken Windows Policing,” which has been proven to work, are appalling to Larry Krasner, who prefers to excuse the ‘little’ crimes, even though some of the ‘little’ criminals are emboldened enough to start committing worse and worse crimes. We’ve seen this time and time and time again: someone treated too leniently by law enforcement — Nikolas Cruz being the most extreme example — has been enabled by that lenient treatment, and then goes out to commit a far worse crime, one which can get him locked up for decades, perhaps the rest of his life, and, in extreme cases, sentenced to death. Have such criminals really been done any favors by the ‘progressive’ prosecutors fighting ‘mass incarceration’?

Crime can be reduced, but it cannot be reduced by ignoring the lesser offenses. And it certainly cannot be reduced by treating actual criminals like poor, mistreated, young people.
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