As political analysts sift through the results of the 2022 midterms, they’ve come to a disturbing conclusion: Turnout among black voters was down.
Unlike the increasing numbers of Hispanic Americans who have abandoned the Democratic Party in recent years, these voters did not defect to the GOP. They simply stayed home – in significant numbers.
“The evidence so far raises the distinct possibility that the Black share of the electorate sank to its lowest level since 2006,” The New York Times‘ Nate Cohn wrote, calling this “an unmistakable trend in the post-Obama era.”
“With the important exceptions of Georgia and North Carolina,” Cohn said, “the black population share was below the national average in virtually all of the key districts and Senate contests.”
He compared the gap between white and black turnout in Georgia, North Carolina, and Louisiana in elections. In 2008 and 2012, the years former President Barack Obama was on the ballot, the gaps were 2 percent and 4 percent, respectively. Between 2014 and 2020, the gaps fluctuated between 12 and 15 percent. In 2022, the gap jumped to 26 percent.
Cohn noted that election data from Georgia and North Carolina provides analysts with “an unusually clear look at the racial composition of the electorate” because both states ask voters to identify their race on the registration application.
The statewide turnout gap in North Carolina in 2022 was 16 percent. While this was lower than the national average, it was twice as high as the gap in 2018 and three times higher than in 2014.
Lower turnout among black voters may have made a difference in the Wisconsin Senate race, Cohn wrote. Republican incumbent Sen. Ron Johnson prevailed over his Democratic rival, Mandela Barnes by one percent, or 26,718 votes. He points out that “the Democratic margin in the City of Milwaukee fell by a nearly identical 27,612 votes compared with 2018.”
This increasing apathy among black Americans, typically a reliable a voting bloc for Democrats, has raised the alarm among party operatives.
CNN spoke to a number of Democratic Party operatives and black leaders about the implications of this growing trend, one of whom said, “This is how we lose in 2024.”
According to the report, the most worrisome scenario for the operatives would be if former President Donald Trump and extremist candidates are not on the ballot in 2024, because Trump’s presence would cause “suburban and independent voters to vote for Democrats again.”
The prospect of facing Florida’s popular Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis is likely the most frightening possibility of all.
CNN reported that analysts at Democrats’ House and Senate campaign offices have been digging into the numbers, “precinct by precinct” to determine “how deep the problem really is.” And they’re already taking steps to turn this situation around. For example, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has recently expanded a planned black voter outreach campaign.
The article suggests the reason for the lower turnout among black Americans might be “footage of long lines to vote in predominantly Black neighborhoods and what they’ve heard about new voting laws.”
They cite comments from Nevada Democrat Rep. Steve Horsford, the incoming Congressional Black Caucus chair, who said, “It’s hard for people to vote when they literally feel attacked to vote.”
Sounds like they’re buying their own spin and may want to look a little deeper.
Democrats have become an out-of-touch, elite party. Other than expanding the social safety nets intended to keep black Americans reliant on the federal government, leaving them stuck in an endless cycle of poverty, what have Democrats really done to justify their perpetual loyalty?
Maybe blacks are beginning to understand that Trump, who made a concerted effort to reach out to black communities, did more to help them than Democrats have in the past 60 years. He signed the First Step Act into law, criminal justice reform legislation which lead to the early release of thousands of blacks from prisons and eased their transitions back into society. He reversed Obama’s federal funding cut for historically black colleges and universities.
In an October 2020 op-ed, Fox News’ Gianno Caldwell, who is black, wrote: “Trump also recently unveiled his Platinum Plan, which pledges to create 3 million new jobs in the Black community, open 500,000 new Black-owned businesses, and increase Black Americans’ access to capital by almost $500 billion over the next four years. Plus, want to designate the Ku Klux Klan as a terrorist group — something that President Obama never did.”
Caldwell added, “On the other hand, Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden has a history riddled with policies that have harmed African Americans.”
While the overwhelming majority of black voters still support Democrats, the gradual shift away from the party is real and leaders’ concern is not misplaced. Republicans should seize the opportunity to bring them into our tent.
America has declined under Democratic leadership, and it looks like some black voters are starting to notice.