So Quid Pro Joe Biden has finally decided not to run for re-election. This turns out to have been one of the worst kept secrets in Washington history. While I have zero sympathy for him because of his deliberate opening up of our border, disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan and his unintentional and clumsy “greenlighting” of a “minor incursion” by Putin into Ukraine, the decision to push him aside by other Democrats demonstrates a lack of belief in the democratic process on their part and is quite cynical.
So what happens next? Biden did endorse his Vice President Kamala Harris to be his successor. The Clintons did as well, but Barack (and Michelle) Obama have decided to hedge their bets and not endorse a specific candidate for nomination, indicating some remaining bad blood between Team Biden and Team Obama. They are endorsing the idea of an “open convention.”
Harris does have a huge advantage over any other potential nominee because of the huge war chest that can only go to her. I also see it very unlikely that the Democrat Party will be willing to nominate another candidate for President because of Harris’ ethnicity and gender. If the DNC nominates someone else next month, I predict that many African American Democrats who would have otherwise voted for Biden-Harris will simply abstain from voting or vote for Trump. Trump is already polling as high as 24% with this demographic, which if it holds, makes it all but impossible for Democrats to carry swing states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Georgia. I see no way the party of identity politics will abandon Harris.
So here we have the presumptive nominee, Harris. How about the potential Vice-Presidential nominee? Several names come to mind. First, although Democrats are obsessed with intersectionality, I don’t think they will try to “push it” by selecting Gretchen Whitmer, despite the likelihood she helps Harris in Michigan (where a new poll shows Trump leading by (gasp) seven percent. Two liberal women may be too much for many swing voters to abide, especially since both come across to many as grating and, in the case of Whitmer, as authoritarian.
Likewise, Pete Buttigieg will not be selected, despite his sexual orientation, because he adds nothing to the Electoral College calculus. The three names that make the most sense for Democrats would be
(1) Governor Roy Cooper of North Carolina. He is about to leave office and has been a Democrat governor in a red swing state. While he lacks national name recognition, he could theoretically put the Tar Heel state back in play.
(2) Governor Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania. The calculus is the same here, but for the Keystone State. He has more national name recognition because of his history as Attorney General of Pennsylvania. The fact that Shapiro is Jewish may give him some intersectionality points…and he has won a statewide race more than once, but whether or not that hurts Harris is an unknown. Shapiro’s religion/ethnicity is likely to alienate some of the Muslims in Michigan who are already sour on Biden because of the policy with Israel and Gaza. Shapiro is a rising star in the Democrat Party and if Trump wins, is likely to run for President in 2028, while Cooper is not.
(3) Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona. He is another “moderate” Democrat in the eyes of the press, despite the fact he has voted with Biden and Chuck Schumer almost 100% of the time. He also puts Arizona back in play despite the fact Trump has a decent lead in that state. He also lacks national name recognition. I am ruling out Gavin Newson because of the issue with the 12th Amendment having both ticket-mates being from the same state. For him, his best play for 2028 is to campaign for the new ticket, hope Trump wins, then start to campaign for 2028 with his slogan of “Make America California Again,” but that is the subject of a future article.
Now, all of this may get upended if several Democrats decide to say “no” to the anointing of Harris; this may be battled out at the convention. The irony that the last “open convention” of either party was in Chicago in 1968 is not easily ignored. The division there between the various factions led to the nomination of then Vice President Hubert Humphrey and the subsequent election of Richard Nixon…a man who had been given up for dead politically in 1962. There is likely to be a certain amount of violent protest at that convention because of the deep division, especially over policy differences with regards to Israel.
In the end, most Americans still vote for the top of the ticket rather than the Vice President, whose primary duty on the campaign trail is to be a proverbial “pit bull.” J.D. Vance will be excellent at that, especially in midwestern swing states. His book Hillbilly Elegy is now the best-selling book on Amazon, which will likely help his name recognition and public opinion of him. The eventual debate between Trump and Harris will be more interesting than the one we saw in June. We should expect every single criticism of Harris by Trump will be used as an excuse to gaslight Americans via accusations of “racist!” and “misogynist!” The thing Trump should keep pointing out over and over is “Vice President Harris-you had one job – the southern border – you failed!”
Republicans should still campaign as if they were behind in this race and not become complacent. Democrats have had a much better voter turnout operations for decades, although the new team in charge of the RNC seems to be ahead of the game in that department. Buckle up friends! It’s gonna get real interesting!
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