The 2024 Army-Navy game didn’t go well for the Army Team. So it goes year to year. However, 80 years ago, 16 Dec 1944, was an unforgettable red-letter event – the Battle of the Bulge began. It was the largest battle in US History. The Bulge, like D-Day, was a historic indicator of what the Army achieved in World War II. In the next 80 years, the U.S. Army must rise to the occasion again. Maybe more than once.
80 years ago, World War II was a war of survival for the Nation and all of Western Civilization. The U.S. Navy war gamed the Pacific Campaigns against Japan. The U.S. Army planned the grand strategy to win global war with the Victory Plan. The Army planned ahead for the Occupations of Japan and Germany. Such forward thinking is needed for the next 80 years when a war of national survival with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) or an epic Civil War across Europe are likely.
One of three soldiers across the entire European Theater of Operations was in the Battle of the Bulge. It took 33 Divisions, many Corps, 3 Armies, and 2 Army Groups. Since World War II, the largest ground force fielded in combat has been 10 Army Divisions and 2 Marine Divisions. A long war against the CCP will require Field Armies and Army Groups again. That takes planning and training different from the high level Command organizations in Iraq and Afghanistan.
The Battle of the Bulge had more than 3k civilian deaths and the Malmedy Massacre of captured Americans. A European Civil War would be a morass of civil conflict that makes tribal warfare in the Middle East seem simple. Civil War, call it a “Jacquerie” is a spark away from some Islamist outrage. It could split the forces of our NATO Allies. It would quickly overwhelm European police and armed forces.
The Army that went toe to toe with the Wehrmacht at the Battle of the Bulge and won could consider the following to win throughout the next 80 years.
Victory Plan 2.0. Take another 42 year old Army officer, like Albert Wedemeyer, and plan how the war should end with the conditions set for a 75 year peace with China. Plan the status Post Bellum and work backwards from the CCP’s culminating point to the present.
Remember, our Army marched to Beijing and back again in the Boxer Rebellion. It can be done again. Don’t try to occupy China when you can divide it regionally and only hold enclaves as needed.
CCS Wargame. It’s unlikely our NATO Allies will wargame the Civil War they hope won’t happen. But, they might be persuaded to participate in wargame against a “hypothetical” world hegemon. The exercise would be about establishing relationships and processes like the American and British Combined Chiefs of Staff (CCS) who ran World War II for Western Civilization.
The war gamed would be global. India, Brazil, Mexico, South Korea, and Indonesia would play unprecedented roles for their war industry as much or more than their forces.
LAM 2.0. World War II’s Louisiana Maneuvers (LAM) practiced Division, Corps, and Army staffs which had never been exercised. The exercises to reinforce South Korea are the closest to the old REFORGER Exercises in Europe which served the Army for Operation Desert Storm success and 30 years of overseas deployments to follow.
Large scale exercises are expensive and necessary. Likewise, a division size force and its “Corps slice” of support are necessary to continually keep up with experimentation for technology, organization, and operational concepts. The Army has done this in the decades before 9-11 from the 9th Infantry Division High Tech Test Bed to Ft. Hood “Digitization.”
Airland Battle 2.0. Both operational and tactical level concepts are needed for the worst case scenarios in Asia and Europe. The “Quality of Firsts” is a strong basis for tactics – despite its association with the Future Concept Systems (FCS).
The concepts should be exercised and modified continuously in the LAM 2.0.
Long War Challenges. Both plans and exercises are needed to deal with an intense war of many years. Maybe decades. That includes reconstituting government and armed forces after a devastating nuclear, EMP, and biological attack. Responding to our October 7th-like attack.
Since so much of the population is unfit for military service, perhaps the Army could go beyond its current “fat camps” to a Depression Era Civilian Conservation Corps (CCC)-like program of one or two years to both educate and train tens of thousands of young Americans to meet recruiting shortfalls. Get them up to basic training entry standards. Such a program could be vital to meet the manpower needs of a long, bloody war.
Thoughts for the incoming Secretary of the Army to consider.
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