The fall of the Soviet Empire was an epochal shift in the order of international relations around our world. A “New” world order was the inevitable outcome. President Bush the Elder understood it. Unfortunately, New World Order became the bogeyman for too many gullible people. The only truth in putting scare quotes around the word New was the degree to which the globalist elites really wanted, and still crave, to rule the world from their palaces of wealth and privilege. Think World Economic Forum (WEF), Davos, George Soros, and EU. Remarkably, Trump 2.0 truly may be shaping up a New New World Order.
It’s remarkable, because I don’t see Trump having the intellectual grasp of a Metternich, Bismarck, or Kissinger. He is wheeler dealer and promoter. That helps to a degree, but International Relations is a different kind of vision. Regardless of who is actually doing the thinking, a fascinating plan may be coming together.
Consider the world as it is. Get out your old large world atlas or unfold your Risk game board from its closet storage.
Look at the new Axis of Evil. Russia, Iran, China, and North Korea are contiguous states. That’s the biggest bad guys on the planet. Their borders form one bloc.
If Europe minus Russia and Ukraine gets its act together as NATO, you have the Western flank covered.
If you neuter the Middle East – because you don’t need their lousy armies and they have Islamist Totalitarians to control on their own – then you have the Southwest plugged.
Add India, Japan, and South Korea and you wrap all the way around from the South to the East to the North to Alaska, Canada, and Greenland to fully contain the bad guys.
Contain? Where have we heard that before? Containment was the geostrategy of the Cold War. From the 1947 Truman Doctrine to the Fall of the Wall in 1989, it worked and won.
Now, look at Africa. The population there is doubling from 400 to 800m people. There is one nation – Egypt, the two ancient kingdoms of Ethiopia and Morocco, and many tribes. The colonizing powers of the UK, France, Portugal, Italy, and to lesser degrees Spain and Germany left their unique cultural shadows in bits and pieces of Western Civilization on tribal societies.
China is competing for resources and military bases in Africa. Islam is warring with Christianity and residual tribal Animism. Boers and other Whites in South Africa are threatened with extermination. The “countries” are incapable of growing per capita income anywhere population grows, so poverty grows and the magnet of welfare in the First World glitters as gold. The out migration from Africa will increase with greater desperation.
Ceteris paribus, many hard decades lie ahead for Africa.
Now look at Latin America. Especially, the small countries of Central America – after a first look at Mexico.
Mexico is a huge Narco-state. The Cartels are in charge, in fact if not in public. Mexico and the U.S. are at a crossroads together. The Cartels must be pacified by payoffs or by punishment. They can still run Mexico, but not to the detriment of the Gringos. There are many, many ways this can play out.
The rest of Latin America are oligarchies as they have been for 500 years. Some are more stuck on a stupid and criminal Socialist totalitarian form of oligarchy, like Venezuela and Brazil. Some are dramatically fixing crime and their economy like El Salvador and Argentina. But, what if the former banana republics started making stuff instead of just shipping bananas and immigrants to the U.S.?
What prevents U.S. businesses from investing in Central and South America to produce what is made in China, Taiwan, and all the Asian Tigers? Business went to Asia for cheap labor. Cheap labor is available next door in Latin America. Mexico has already cashed in on that idea, but the rest of Latin America could really exploit it.
That requires schooling the ruling oligarchs about how they will go from filthy rich to astronomically rich, if they don’t steal too much. They can’t take too much on the side and crush business with bureaucracy, rules, and regulations to pay off more people.
Pull back and look at the whole world map. The new new Axis of Evil is contained. Also, there is sufficient military power to defeat it if necessary.
Someday, regime change in Russia, Iran, and North Korea could completely change their orientation. There is no inevitability to make their hostility implacable.
If the U.S. develops new, better productive countries in our Western Hemisphere, which also will grow as better markets for us, then Chinese power in Asia is less of an economic threat to the U.S.
Finally, the fly in the ointment is the ruling European elites’ suicidal importation of Muslim and other immigrants. The Muslims will provoke a “Jacquerie” sooner or later. That civil war across Europe, like the crossroads with the Cartels in Mexico can play out many, many ways. Who knows what happens once they let “slip the dogs of war?” Conflict, if not conflagration, is coming across Europe.
An October 7th attack is possible, if not likely, in the our U.S. homeland.
The clash of Civilizations has nothing to do with Ukraine and Russia. That awful war, like World War I, is just another sad testimony to the folly of man and the tragedy of an unnecessary war. It can be resolved and kept so, but the residue of hatred will last at least another 150 years.
This New New World Order continues and improves the post WW 2 Pax Americana – unless the CCP decides to take the U.S. on in a global war of U.S. national survival. We are already at Cyberwar as countries. Or, the U.S. bankrupts itself with spending and settles the issue unilaterally.
One final note on the military aspect of the New New World Order. The limits of U.S. military power will stay very finite. The huge expense of U.S. military power means the U.S. has firepower, not population or land control.
Our U.S. Army isn’t big enough. The multiple mega-cities of millions and tens of millions of people can’t be conquered or controlled by firepower. Even with willing Allies, there are severe limits on what territory and populations can be pacified, controlled, conquered, or occupied. And, to those who never want boots on the ground to do it, they should note that firepower never pacifies, controls, conquers, or occupies territory or a population to win a conflict. Yes, some place can be nuked into oblivion. Where, when and how often is that the right answer? None since 1945.
Furthermore, the Army doesn’t need to be big enough to occupy, say, Mexico City. It needs to be big enough to defeat any other Army on the planet and be able to go anywhere on Earth, break things and kill people, and come back. Think 1900 Peking Relief Expedition. Or Roman punitive expedition. That Army should be 5-600k Active Army with the National Guard and Reserves to follow. Especially in a truly global conflict with the CCP.
If the New New World Order seems an odd statement, remember the New New Look for strategic forces in the 1950’s Eisenhower Administration. It defines what is what as the New World evolves into its next arrangement – a New New World Order.
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