The situation in Iran must be understood within two contexts – (1) within a regional context, and (2) within context of the world-wide geopolitical situation. But in each context, there are common driving decision-making forces.
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First, the abstract.
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As nations interact with each other, they do so using the instruments of national power. There are a few models for describing those instruments, but the most commonly used model (in USA and NATO, that is) is DIME. That is, nations interact using Diplomacy, Information, Military, and Economic levers. Of those, two require commitment of tangible assets (Military and Economic), and two are less tangible (Diplomacy and Information). So nations are always engaged in Diplomacy and Information ops, whether that is positive or negative interaction. But they engage with each other using Military and Economic assets/levers/instruments (positively or negatively) only when motivated to do so by their self interest.
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Since commitment of Military and Economic assets require an expenditure of national wealth, a wise nation seeks to create the effects it wishes to create by leveraging other nations’ Military and Economic assets. “Other peoples’ money”. But when “other people” don’t have the right asset to do the job, and you cannot leverage those “other people” to create the effect, one must commit one’s own assets.
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That’s what has happened in the Middle East; and it is what is happening worldwide.
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In each case – Middle East and worldwide – we have a generally similar situation. In each we are faced with a decades-long enemy which – prior to a tumultuous revolution – we had had friendly relations; but which AFTER that tumultuous revolution we have had nothing but sustained, unprovoked antagonism. Specifically:
– Iran was a nation with which we were allied until the catastrophe of 1979, after which Iran has been at war with us ever since.
– Russia was a nation with which we had sustained positive interactions until the Tsar was deposed in 1919, after which Russia (pre-Soviet, mid-Soviet, and post-Soviet) has been at war with us ever since.
– China was a nation with which we were allied in WWII. But shortly afterward, China suffered the Communist Revolution; and they have been at war with us ever since.
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So the trick in addressing these warring nations – even if we choose to ignore the fact that they have been waging war against us for decades – is to defeat them using “other peoples’ money” to the maximum extent possible.
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That brings us to today.
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Against Iran, we are using Israeli assets to achieve effects we desire against a decades-long enemy in Iran. Forget, for now, that we have funded Israel’s growth and defense for even longer than Iran has been at war with us; because at this point, it is Israel’s assets which have done most of the work for us.
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But eventually, the job required tools which Israel doesn’t have because we haven’t allowed them (or anybody else) to have access to the most sophisticated of our assets. So we had to act, using capabilities unique to USA; but only after leveraging Israel’s assets to the maximum extent possible.
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This operation in Iran should have a ripple effect on our other largest foes – Russia and China. Each is quite invested in a strong Iran; so each is negatively affected by a destroyed Iran… or by an Iran which is no longer controlled by the repressive/evil government of the past 45 years.
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With reference to Russia and China, I believe that POTUS Trump is seeking to do something generally similar – use “other peoples’ money” to defeat those foes. Against Russia, the strategy seems to be to influence European powers to foot the bill by purchasing US military assets for donation to Ukraine in an effort to whittle Russia down for an eventual coup de gras… whether we deliver that final blow or not. Against China, I believe that we are influencing others in the region (Japan, South Korea, Australia, etc) to pony up a sizeable portion of their assets, but that’s an area in which I think we are investing a greater percentage of our own assets.
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In summary, I generally applaud POTUS Trump’s handing of the overall geopolitical conflict situation; but it hasn’t been 100% well handled. I think the effects in the Middle East are masterful… so far. The effects in Ukraine and Russia are clumsy and based on really bad advice and geopolitical assessments within the POTUS’ set of current advisors. And the situation in the Pacific and eastern Asia is still up in the air.
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As we move forward, I expect that we’ll see the Trump Admin seek to knock over dominoes to eventually defeat all foes. Syria was a small domino. Iran is a larger one which looks about to be fully toppled. Russia would be the next domino if played correctly, but that domino will splinter into a “wild-west” situation in present day Eastern Russia. And China would be the final domino once it is isolated with the removal of an antagonistic Iran and Russia; and after a controlled stabilization of the fragments of a splintered Russia.
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Will that strategy work? It could. It should. And it is off to a good start. But support to Ukraine will be vital to this strategy, whether that support comes from USA or European powers. Time will tell.
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