Quantus Insights tweeted its October House forecast:
🔵 Democrats: 85%
🔴 Republicans: 13%
⚪️ Unresolved: 2%
Median Seats
🔵 D 229
🔴 R 206
Up from 82% in September. In September the environment held and our confidence rose. In October the environment moved.
The real news is Democrats have a 13% chance of blowing a 3-seat putt. Come on, it’s a gimme. Democrats only have to pick up 3 seats. The average loss for a president’s party in the last five midterms is 31.2 seats.
And yet Republicans have a 13% chance of keeping the House. Come on now. That’s too optimistic even for me. Remember how I said Trump would take 37 states in 2020?
Democrats are running on how bad the economy is. Gasoline is 5 bucks a gallon, right?
AP tweeted, “The U.S. stock market hits an all-time high as expectations rise for companies to keep making more money.”
Mo’ money, the happier Larry and Curly are. Nyuk, nyuk, nyuk.
I am not going to say Democrats are getting desperate, but they have Kamala out there campaigning for them. She made the case for voting in the midterm, “I feel like it’s two minutes from ‘last call’ and I’ve got to get out of the bar.”
That is the saddest moment of her day, every day.
But drink up, Kamala. Professor Allan Lichtman, known for successfully predicting the presidential outcomes since 1984 except the two close ones (2000 and 2016) and 2024, is predicting Democrats taking the Senate back 52-44 with 4 tossups (Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska and South Carolina).
Presidents Al Gore, Hillary Clinton and the aforementioned Kamala Harris approve Lichtman’s message.
Maybe he based one of those forecasts on the Iowa Poll, you know the one that two days before the election said Trump would lose the state by 3 points. He won by 13.
In the past, I have said don’t follow the polls, follow the pols because what they do tells more about who is winning than anything else.
Trump is out in the hustings hustling votes and having the time of his life: “My wife told me, ‘Sir, do me a favor, please pronounce vegan properly.’ I called it vaygan. How the hell would I know? I like steak.”
And he is pissing off Democrats by saying Iran could bomb Southern California. (“Oh no. There goes San Diego. Go, go, Trumpzilla.”)
Johnson’s numbers run through September 30. Hakeem Jeffries raised $15 million through June 30. He’s too ashamed to post his new numbers.
Trump has $416 million in cash to spend on the midterms. Obama has a Netflix deal. Biden is eating an ice cream cone.
Elon Musk has $120 million to spend. I don’t know how much money Chairman Xi has.
Politico’s spin is Democrats could take Kansas, Florida, South Carolina and Mississippi if only they had the money.
Scott Colom, the Mississippi Democrat Senate nominee, whined, “It’s very clear in the polling: If we get our message out, we’re going to win. We’re also not an expensive state to advertise in. When it comes to Mississippi, we’ve been ignored for far too long.”
Politico said, “Democrats, despite polling well, are being massively outspent on the airwaves across the core battleground states. They’re already heavily investing in a swath of states President Donald Trump won in 2024 by double-digit margins—Alaska, Iowa and Ohio and, most recently, Texas. And they’re wary of spending big in states where major money chasing good polls have yielded very little in past elections.”
The reason Democrats have no money is donors do not believe in them.
Look if Hakeem Jeffries becomes House speaker, Republican donors are screwed and possibly indicted. He needs to pick up just three seats, but the money is going to Mike Johnson.
In a separate story, Politico said, “Capitol agenda: GOP ads have yet to overwhelm voters, poll finds.”
Sour grapes or not, I do note that Hillary spent twice as much as Trump only to become the First Woman Major Party Nominee instead of president. TV ads go largely unwatched. Maybe billboards and mailers are the way to go. Democrats can afford them.
All I know is despite the polling and despite the history of midterms, the bookies give Democrats a 13% chance of blowing a 3-seat putt.
This article first appeared on Don Surber’s Substack. Reprinted here with permission.
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