Although former President Donald Trump enjoyed strong support among voters of Cuban heritage in 2020, Hispanic voters as a group supported President Joe Biden by a margin of 28 percent.
For years, Democrats could count on the loyalty of a large majority of Hispanic voters.
Eleven months into the Biden presidency, however, a Wall Street Journal poll shows a major shift has occurred and this important demographic is now evenly split between the two parties.
Hispanic voters were asked which party they would support if the election were today.” Thirty seven percent of respondents said they would favor the Republican candidate and 37 percent said they would prefer the Democrat. Twenty-two percent were undecided.
Another question asked whom they would support in the event of a 2024 rematch between Biden and Trump. Forty-four percent chose Biden compared to 43 percent for Trump. Considering they had voted for Biden by a 28-point margin last November, this is a seismic move.
This poll was conducted for The Journal by two polling firms, one led by Democratic pollster John Anzalone and the other led by Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio.
Anzalone told The Journal that “Latinos are more and more becoming swing voters. … They’re a swing vote that we’re going to have to fight for.”
According to the report, “Hispanic voters account for about 1 in 8 eligible voters and are one of the fastest-growing groups in the electorate, factors that compound Democratic fears about any deterioration in support.”
Both pollsters agreed that concern over the economy was the biggest reason for the shift toward Republicans, particularly for Hispanic men.
When asked if the economy was headed in the right direction, 25 percent of Hispanic voters said it was headed in the right direction and 63 percent said it was headed in the wrong direction, a 38-point gap.
This shows that Hispanic voters were slightly more pessimistic about the economy than the average American voter, where the gap was 31 points.
President Trump’s support among Hispanics was higher in 2020 than it had been in 2016.
One in-depth study, by Catalist, which compiles and analyzes voter data for Democratic candidates and progressive causes, found that Hispanic voters swung toward Mr. Trump by 8 points compared with 2016 in the two-party vote.
Shifts in some parts of the country were larger. In its analysis of the 2020 electorate, Equis Labs, which studies the Latino electorate, found swings toward the GOP of 20 points in parts of Florida’s Miami-Dade County; of 12 points in the Rio Grande Valley of Texas; and double-digit swings in parts of the Northeast. In South Florida, the shift was big enough to flip two congressional seats to the GOP, the firm concluded.
Analyses by various groups have cited a range of causes for the shift, including higher turnout among the most conservative Hispanic voters, GOP success in persuading voters who turn out infrequently and frustration over job losses due to pandemic-related business shutdowns.
…
In last month’s election for governor in Virginia, AP VoteCast found that Republican Glenn Youngkin, who won the race, outpolled his Democratic opponent among Hispanic voters.
Democrats should be worried about this rather stunning new change in sentiment among this group.
In 2002, liberal journalists Ruy Teixeira and John Judis published a widely read book titled “The Emerging Democratic Majority.” They predicted that the growing diversity in the U.S. population would lead to Democratic dominance for years to come.
Teixeira and Judis were right about the browning of America. By 2045-50, whites will comprise less than 50 percent of the population.
However, they were wrong to assume this automatically meant Democratic dominance. They assumed that most Hispanics would remain loyal to the party.
(Teixeira explains the new dynamics in an Aug. 31 article on Substack.)
The whole idea behind the party’s open border policy was/is to import future Democratic voters in large numbers. If these people are turning toward Republicans, and at such a rapid pace, this is a major problem for Democrats.
What will they do to fix it?
PSSSST! Maybe they should secure the border.
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