Remember, “Speak softly and carry a big stick?” Now is the time for Americans to watch, listen, and wait – not war. There’s much to consider.
Putin isn’t Hitler. And, Putin isn’t crazy. The former KGB agent is calculating and very, very Russian. Being Russian is really different from being American. Culture commands. Don’t dream that you or anyone else can read his mind. Clearly, Putin is the aggressor. He is guilty of crimes against humanity for starting a war. But, no one knows his endgame or what he will settle for if he can’t achieve his war aims – except Vladimir Putin.
Zelensky isn’t George Washington. Zelensky has shown great bravery along with public relations savvy. He shut down opposition television stations. Some journalists are “missing.” Ukraine is a very corrupt country. The Biden Crime family scammed a lot of money there. Just as the Clinton Crime family got a lot of Russian money – don’t know how much they grifted in Ukraine. Zelensky is trying to get the U.S. and NATO into the war.
Historical memes inflame more than inform. Everyone should stop what they are doing and read my old professors’ “Thinking in Time: The Uses of History for Decision-Makers.” It’s brilliant and clear analysis showing how powerful people use and misuse “history” while making critical decisions. At the risk of invoking aspects of history, what is happening looks more like 1914 than 1939 (or 1936) to me.
Emotions govern. Humans act on emotions. Thoughts inform, but emotions rule. Read the “Guns of August” and weep at Western Civilization rushing to attempt suicide in the awful, unnecessary slaughter that was World War I. Consider the same for our Recent Unpleasantness in 1861. The handful of powerful people who will decide more war or no war for us should divorce themselves from their emotions and the emotional hysteria around them. I doubt some can do so.
The complexity that matters is hidden. There actually are battalions in the Ukrainian forces that sport NAZI symbols. There are Muslim auxiliaries in the Russian forces. The web of business, crime, corruption, language, religion and culture in mixed populations of Russians and Ukrainians is like the goo that was in the former Yugoslavia, or even Northern Ireland. There are many different reasons for the actions of all. Life – war – isn’t the cartoon the media and social networks may draw.
We don’t know ground truth. U.S. intelligence services may have a good read on the disposition of forces in Ukraine. But, no one sitting at home has a clue what is what across a battlespace the size of Texas with 40 million inhabitants. We are looking through bent soda straws.
U.S. and NATO hasn’t helped freedom fighters. The Free World watched the Russians crush revolts in East Germany (1953), Hungary (1956), and Czechoslovakia (1968) because the Soviet Union had nuclear weapons. It was a sad but prudent policy. Applies today because Russia has nuclear weapons.
U.S. and NATO watched war crimes. The Free World watched Croats, Serbs, and Bosniaks (Muslims) murder each other from 1991-95 before stepping in. That’s not a proud record, but a stark fact.
U.S. and NATO killed for self-determination. Over 2k Serb civilians were killed in the bombing campaign to force Serbia to give up their ancestral and cultural heartland – Kosovo – to the Albanian Muslim majority that moved there. What right of self-determination applies to the Russian majorities in Crimea and eastern Oblasts?
Russia has legitimate security concerns. The U.S. didn’t allow the Soviet Union to keep missiles in Cuba. If anyone put significant forces and missiles in Venezuela, what would the U.S. do? Since the West failed – and key Russian leaders resisted – embracing Russia, helping it recover its pride, and pulling it into a web of allegiances that would make it the eastern bulwark of Western Civilization, Russia still sees its “near abroad” as a defense buffer. Historical past attacks prove the case in Russian thinking.
Domestic Politics will muddy reality. Partisan zealots from both political parties will play the blame game and spin the present to their advantage. This is as dangerous as it is petty – and contemptible.
Russia will lose. Ukraine will win. Russia doesn’t have the forces or will to occupy all of Ukraine if enough Ukrainians keep fighting for their freedom. The sanctions – especially if everyone quits buying Russian oil – will impoverish Russia. Putin’s propaganda can’t sustain the Russian will to fight for long. Russia will be divided – see “complexity” above – but, ultimately, the anti-war segment will be more significant – as it was in their 1980’s Afghanistan and WW I.
Don’t punish Russia. When the war is won, don’t punish Russia like Germany was after WW I. Russia has been an autocracy for over one thousand years. It shouldn’t be a surprise that Russia is one now and will likely be one in the future – until, and if, the culture changes dramatically. Regardless, Russia is better as an autocratic ally or partner to the West. Be as generous as possible after Putin leaves – whenever that happens.
More awful things can happen. The slaughter of innocents is an awful aspect of war. But, a nuclear war or EMP strike is worse. Those screaming for a “no fly zone” or Putin’s assassination advocate America committing acts of war. The U.S. and NATO have no legal or moral responsibility to go to war. Our morality motivates our economic sanctions and humanitarian aid, but it doesn’t demand more war.
How Russia loses this war and Ukraine wins is to be determined. I hope it unfolds without a nuclear war ending life as we know it. It’s Putin’s war, not Russia’s.
Pray for peace. Provide humanitarian aid, supplies, and weapons.
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Right on target!! I agree on all counts.
Thank you. Fire for effect.