No treaties or even diplomatic agreements of lesser forms last forever – particularly when existential threats to nations evolve over time through miscalculations, technology advances, and/or the changing course of human events. The so-called “Three Communiqués” between the United States and the People’s Republic of China are a case in point.
At the height of the Cold War, President Richard Nixon and his Secretary of State Henry Kissinger “opened China” to the civilized world in a 1971-1972 through the issuance of the Shanghai Communique in February 1972 after they met with Chinese premier Chou En Lai on their trip to China. The key provisions from the Shanghai Communiqué are:
The United States acknowledges that all Chinese on either side of the Taiwan Strait maintain there is but one China and that Taiwan is a part of China. The United States Government does not challenge that position. It reaffirms its interest in a peaceful settlement of the Taiwan question by the Chinese themselves.
This action shocked many China observers at the time, coming as it did during China’s “Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution,” during which Mao Zedong’s youthful Red Guard purged Chinese society of alleged “dissidents,” as noted here:
“Some 1.5 million people were killed during the Cultural Revolution, and millions of others suffered imprisonment, seizure of property, torture or general humiliation.”
In opening China, the US and Western elites – and especially the multinational corporations and banks – were convinced that PRC “excesses” like the Cultural Revolution could be excised from Chinese Communist Party behavior, and, over time, Communist China could be peacefully brought into the global system through open trade policies and access to world markets and Western technology. In short, money was considered to be more important than ideology in mitigating CCP behavior. Of equal significance in 1971, the UN General Assembly voted to admit the PRC to the United Nations, after which began the ChiCom corruption of the UN (with the World Health Organization being a key example during the “pandemic” over the past two years). The international prestige that China obtained through this action was also intended as a carrot in order to deter aggressive Chinese behavior. However, formal US recognition of the PRC would not happen until six years later with the issuance of the second communiqué.
On 15 December 1978, in an address to the nation, US President Jimmy Carter announced the Joint Communique on the Establishment of Diplomatic Relations between the US and the PRC (the “Second Communiqué”), which formally recognized the communist government of the PRC as the “sole legal Government of China” while “maintaining[ing] cultural, commercial, and other unofficial relations with the people of Taiwan.” To many American veterans of World War-II, especially those who fought in East Asia, this communiqué was considered a personal affront and an outright abandonment of their nationalist Chinese allies who fled to Taiwan after the Chinese Communist Party took control on the mainland in 1949. Taiwan became an afterthought among many US elites eager to reap the economic benefits of normalization of relations and engagement with China.
The Third Communiqué – the Joint Communiqué on Arms Sales to Taiwan – was issued on 17 August 1982 by the Reagan State Department. A key Chinese objective was to reduce US arms sales to Taiwan, paving the way for “winning without fighting” in the eventual future absorption of the island into the PRC. The US essentially committed to that eventuality with this statement from the Communiqué: “the United States Government states that it does not seek to carry out a long-term policy of arms sales to Taiwan…, and that it intends gradually to reduce its sale of arms to Taiwan, leading, over a period of time, to a final resolution.” The handwriting was on the wall.
After the Three Communiqués were concluded, the multinationals – at the behest of the Kissinger “engagement school” in the US political class – launched an era of economic expansion in China the likes of which the world had never before seen. Cheap labor, easy financing, bribery/corruption, and the lure of over a billion Chinese consumers were (and still are) choruses in the siren song that resulted in US and the West outsourcing much of its consumer goods (and other) production capabilities to China while turning the PRC into an economic powerhouse in the ensuing forty years.
With the economic rise of China came increased CCP belligerence and aggressive behavior on the world stage – in fact, the opposite of what the advocates of China engagement had promised:
- The crushing of the Tiananmen Square protests in 1989
- Genocide in Xinjian/East Turkestan and Tibet
- Border skirmishes with India
- The persecution of Falun Gong and Shen Yun adherents
- The expansion of CCP debt trap diplomacy financed by the gargantuan trade surpluses with US
- PLA-Navy belligerence in contested areas in the South China Sea
- Withholding of key SARS-CoV-2 virus clinical and diagnostic information from the international community
- Wolf warrior diplomatic threats against Taiwan (and any nation providing support to the Republic of China government in Taipei)
- Outright belligerence of Chinese diplomats at the “Anchorage meeting”
- The enforcement of a new national security law on the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) in violation of CCP promises of “autonomy for 50 years” in a “one country, two systems” arrangement
- A crescendo of violations of Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) by the PLA-Air Force
In light of the potential implications for Taiwan with the Russo-Ukrainian war and the emergence of a Russia-China alliance, it is past time to reassess and revise The Three Communiqués – unilaterally, if necessary. Because of US domestic political resistance to the Carter administration’s apparent abandonment of Taiwan, the Taiwan Relations Act was passed in 1979 to codify US commitments to Taiwan, including this very important provision: “[T]he United States shall make available to Taiwan such defense articles and defense services in such quantity as may be necessary to enable Taiwan to maintain a sufficient self-defense capacity.”
It should be noted that none of The Three Communiqués were ever approved by the US Congress as is required for all treaties. In fact, the Taiwan Relations Act is a legal document unlike The Three Communiqués and should serve as the starting point for their revision (if not outright recission), as well as for the future defense of Taiwan against PRC aggression.
The US portion of the Shanghai Communiqué contains this very important conditional statement: “[The US] will progressively reduce its forces and military installations on Taiwan as the tension in the area diminishes.” Conditions have definitely changed since that Communiqué was issued! The intimidation of Taiwan by the PLA-Navy, PLA-Air Force, and diplomatic corps has worsened since paramount leader Xi Jinping came to power in 2013 and has become acute in recent months. As the tension in the area is in fact increasing, so should US support for Taiwan be increased – materially, legally, and psychologically.
The second communiqué contained this assumption: “Normalization—and the expanded commercial and cultural relations that it will bring—will contribute to the well-being of our own Nation, to our own national interest, and it will also enhance the stability of Asia.” This statement has proven to be the wishful thinking of the US State Dept that it always was. In addition to the above aggressive actions, the deleterious economic effects of Chinese engagement on the US – and the world’s – economy are becoming increasingly obvious:
- Supply chain dependencies and disruptions, as well as the accompanying inflationary pressures
- Chinese manipulation of strategic commodities, especially rare earth elements
- Chinese theft of intellectual property
- Civil-military fusion of all Chinese high-tech companies
- PLA exploitation of Chinese information technology (IT) companies for surveillance and data-gathering purposes
- Widespread Chinese economic espionage
- Corruption and bribery of Western elites
None of these “contribute to the well-being of our own Nation.” The above Chinese actions, especially the abrogation of their stated promise that Hong Kong would have autonomy for 50 years under a “one China, two systems” arrangement, comprise a remarkable breach of faith on the part of the CCP. With Hong Kong as a direct example, why would anyone believe in PRC commitments to a “peaceful resolution” of the Taiwan situation? The PRC increasingly acts unilaterally in pursuit of its geopolitical and economic objectives, none of which warrant the US commitments expressed in the moribund and toothless Three Communiqués.
Conclusion. The PRC has increasingly demonstrated belligerence to its own minority populations, its neighbors, the US, and the rest of the world. Chinese obfuscation of SARS-CoV-19 virus-related clinical and diagnostic data and PLAAF and PLAN intimidation of Taiwan are two examples among many. The Three Communiques governing US-PRC relations have thereby become inoperative and thus obsolete. The time is now to revise them, especially given the blossoming China-Russia alliance.
Here is a recommended short course of action for the Biden administration:
- Rescind The Three Communiques citing the above background information, with emphasis on the PRC’s breach of faith with respect to the HKSAR.
- Increase tariffs on Chinese telecommunications and other advanced technology companies (for starters)
- Direct the Dept of Defense and the Director of National Intelligence to remove all PRC components and content from US military and intelligence systems and networks, replacing them with US-controlled (and/or carefully selected allied) sources
- Invoke the provisions of the Taiwan Relations Act, which provides the legal foundation for vastly improving Taiwan’s self-defense capabilities, particularly with respect to theater area air defenses, advanced aircraft, and long-range hypersonic anti-ship cruise missiles.
- Officially recognize the Republic of China (Taiwan) and open a US embassy in Taipei and a ROC embassy in Washington, DC.
- Formally commit to the defense of Taiwan in the event of a cross-strait attack by the PLA.
- Facilitate a mutual defense treaty among Taiwan and other countries in the region.
The PRC has proven that ideology trumps money. The US officially supported a divided Germany during the Cold War and still supports a divided Korea – all in the interests of preserving democracy, liberty, and freedom. Time for an official policy supporting a divided China, too. There is no reason to maintain the diplomatic exception (farce) agreed to under The Three Communiqués.
The end.
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