Apologies to William Shakespeare’s Hamlet, but that phrase fits the present times like a glove. Consider the first lines of Hamlet’s soliloquy in the context of Xi Jinping who is approaching the end of his second five-year term in office:
To be, or not to be, that is the question:
Whether ’tis nobler in the mind to suffer
The slings and arrows of outrageous fortune,
Or to take arms against a sea of troubles
And by opposing end them.
Xi has supposedly read Goethe’s Fauste and other “world masterpieces.” Has he read Shakespeare, too? If so, what must Xi be thinking about in terms of the “slings and arrows” – the unpleasant events – that have littered his path to glory over the past decade? Are they of his own making, or were such events as the SARS-CoV-2 virus outbreak, the apparent bursting of the domestic property bubble, and the increasing awareness worldwide of Chinese belligerence and bellicosity “inevitable”? And what to do? Continue the present course of action, double-down, retrench, or “take arms against a sea of troubles”? Or does Xi’s megalomania prevent any rational examination of courses of action other than domestic repression in order to guarantee CCP control for the foreseeable future with also an external focus on consolidation of overseas Chinese into the PRC (Taiwan being the next target)?
Chinese leader Xi Jinping had a big week last November when he made his case for an unprecedented third five-year term in power at the Sixth Plenary session of the 19th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party. The groundwork was laid beforehand by state-run media for his “historic resolution” that Xi intends will chart the PRC’s future in continuing the supposed benefits of “socialism with Chinese characteristics.” Increasingly, Xi’s definition of those “Chinese characteristics” are coming into clear view, both domestically in China and also on the world scene.
The number three (and multiples thereof) retain important historical significance – and even superstition and luck – in Chinese culture. The number three represents Buddha and stands for Heaven, Earth, and human being. Confucius once said, “Three people are walking together; at least one of them is good enough to be my teacher.” There are a lot of “threes” in Chinese culture and history, for example:
- The Three Sovereigns (and five Emperors)
- The Three Kingdoms (Wu, Wei, and Shu Han)
- The Three Gorges of the Yangtze River
- The Three great sages (Lao Tzu, Confucius, and Mo-tsu)
- Mao Zedong’s Three Warfares
- The Three US-China communiques
Xi plans on capitalizing on the luck and superstition surrounding the number three with a third 5-year term in office and a third historical resolution, which would together elevate him as the “third paramount leader” along with Mao Zedong and Deng Xiao-Ping – in effect a trifecta or triple threes! The confluence of luck and superstition among that triple three is certainly off the charts.
Mao’s resolution completed his purge of his political opponents as part of the “Rectification Movement.” Deng’s resolution rectified the chaos after the Cultural Revolution and set China on course to incorporate “market mechanisms” into the Chinese economy. Xi’s resolution laid the groundwork for his third 5-year term by touting the progress the PRC has made during his first two terms, as well as providing clarity on what he means by the next stage of “socialism with Chinese characteristics.” His resolution was summarily accepted by the 6th Plenum, and that signals that the CCP’s 20th National Party Congress in 2022 will almost certainly endorse Xi’s third term.
But neither the Chinese people nor the rest of the world should be happy that the 6th Plenum rubber stamped what state-run Chinese media were saying about Xi’s resolution. Some of those “Chinese characteristics” about which Xi is so fond include:
- Purification of the Chinese Communist Party and elimination of dissent within (with a distinct nod to Mao Zedong)
- The implementation of “whole democracy,” which translates into a reduction of freedoms for the average Chinese in order to “guarantee” perpetual CCP control of the country in all ways
- Tightening of domestic surveillance through the implementation of a social controls system
- Increased domestic censorship of journalists and citizens
- Use of the new national security law as a legal framework to control overseas Chinese (and others)
- Continued repression of minority populations
- Continued suppression of religious expression – except when made on the CCP’s terms, which includes virtual deification of Xi
- Accelerated modernization and expansion of all elements of the People’s Liberation Army and their use in intimidating neighboring nations
- A doubling down on Xi’s strategic initiatives, including Belt and Road and a “Global Development Initiative, at the expense of the rest of the world
- Efforts to corrupt and replace the existing international system with a new framework dominated and controlled by the CCP
The PRC’s internal problems are non-trivial: a real estate sector bubble, a corresponding debt bomb, a demographic nightmare thanks to arbitrary past forced limitations on the number of children per family by the CCP, turmoil in the financial sector caused by CCP-directed opaqueness and the unraveling of the myth of “leveraged prosperity,” the tightening of regulations and rules on technology and other sectors, the unknown impact of the property tax pilot on the economy, the world’s realization that the PRC is not a benign power but instead is aggressive and avaricious, domestic concerns about long-term food security and energy supplies, the CCP’s increasing focus on “wealth redistribution” as opposed to economic growth, the rising belief that the CCP should indemnify the world for economic and personal damages associated with the SAR-CoV-2 virus, companies relocating out of China, and more.
Furthermore, the PRC’s rising military and economic power, as well as the increasing CCP propensity to leverage that power to achieve geopolitical and military goals, is expediting the creation of various coalitions of nations that intend to balance and counteract that power, including India, Australia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, and the US. PLA intimidation of India and Taiwan in particular is awakening world leaders to the long-term CCP threat.
Has Xi already chosen Hamlet’s option to “take arms against a sea of troubles” as summarized above? What could Xi’s definition of “take arms” possibly be? A cross-strait attack on Taiwan could be in the offing in order to achieve a long-held CCP goal to eliminate an historical enemy and absorb the remnant into the PRC. Such an attack would certainly refocus Chinese citizens away from their domestic problems, as well as provide the regime with some prestige at home. But that is unlikely to happen before Xi has cemented his three threes at this fall’s CCP Party Congress. After that, all bets are off.
The world may very probably hope that the number three is not as lucky for Xi as he seems to think it is.
The end
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