The Deep, Deep State of Intelligence. Lede: I only had one Intelligence job in the Cold War Army. 90 days as a Brigade S-2 in the Fulda Gap got me read on monthly to the Division’s “Black Book” latest on terrorists and the Soviets. It was an eye-opener on what our people knew. As a DoD contractor, I was program manager for a classified demo of sensor capabilities for a proposed Navy procurement. Another eye-opener on what information can be gained – by technologies. Consequently, I know just enough to know I know nothing about Chinese spy balloon capabilities or intent. Nor, do I know what the U.S. knew about it and when. That makes me wonder.
Capabilities and intentions measured in when, where, how many, etc. are the intelligence business of some 17 Intelligence agencies in the U.S. Government. The more I got “read on” to Top Secret Special Compartmentalized Information (TS-SCI) programs, the more I wondered about what else was there. The Intelligence world truly is the deep, deep state of secrets hidden in complex puzzles behind myriad restricted accesses.
Yet, based on my dated (since 2013) and limited access, I’m confident that our Intelligence agencies know one hell of a lot about the Chinese balloons. The public may not be told diddley squat, but that doesn’t mean there’s not a lot of information moving through the intel world right now.
The truly amazing stuff is Human Intelligence, HUMINT. Old-fashioned spying. Modern day portrayals in film for the French, Le Bureau, and Israelis, Fauda, demonstrate enormous complexity and danger. I was never fit for this line of work, but I find the organization, planning, and operations fascinating. I’ve seen how they operate through history.
I wonder how much the French learned from WW II with their experience in the Maquis and at the hands of the Gestapo to exploit it so successfully in Algeria a decade later. How much of that success in the Deuxieme Bureau is working now? Despite their competence, they leaked like a sieve to the Soviets, while the Germans and Brits did to a lesser degree, during the Cold War because of Communist infiltration.
Meanwhile the Islamist Totalitarians – the terrorists – and the drug Cartels have their Intelligence services. It’s rough business dealing with them in real life spy vs. spy. I’m glad I know nothing of interest to them. I’m hopeful, though, that the right people know enough about them to counter successfully.
Likewise, I’m confident that our Intelligence services knew the origin of the Wuhan Virus by March 2020. It may be super-classified, because of the sources, but they knew. So what happened to the information? It stayed buried in the deep, deep state of the Intel world. A few people in two administrations with the clearances, need to know, and horsepower of high muckety-muck got the scoop. Eventually, it’ll come out as always.
So, once informed, why did they keep the information locked away? What should anyone at the highest levels of government do with such information?
First, wait. Even with Chinese spy balloons.
Because, every action has a narrative. The narrative to Americans isn’t the same as the narrative to leaders of the Chinese Communist Party or the people living under their dictatorship.
Consider the flip side. Most of the Japanese High Command thought a devastating attack on our Pacific Fleet in December 1941 would set the U.S. back on its heels and keep us there. On the contrary, Admiral Yamamoto supposedly said, “I fear all we have done is to awaken a sleeping giant and fill him with a terrible resolve.” The Admiral understood the American narrative.
Then, what is the narrative that speaks most clearly to Xi Jinping? I don’t know, but I’m sure enough scholars and experts can put together a consensus understanding of what actions have what narratives – to China. If there is disagreement among the cognoscenti, then lay them out. What is the action that best tells a story of strength?
Because strength and weakness are the universal language of power. The whole planet speaks it and understands it well.
Watching and doing nothing in the eyes of the watching world is probably not the right answer.
What will keep the Chinese for nuking us or hitting us with an EMP to send America back to the 19th Century? What worked with the Russians isn’t the answer. I doubt this administration is competent enough or capable of getting it right. If we’re still here, maybe different leadership will someday.
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Unfortunately, the “Intelligence Community” has, like most federal government agencies today, been politically corrupted.
I track the end my confidence in them to the Phoenix Program in the Mekong Delta of South Vietnam where the Agency could screw up one-car funeral procession.
I’ll go even farther back in time, with the hindsight of a History major. Just the mere PROPOSAL of Operation Northwoods should have meant mass roundup and summary execution of the oathbreaking traitors-to-their-uniforms behind it.
I had to look up Opn Northwoods. Wow. Yes, dismissal if not trial and execution.