China’s main adversary in South Asia is India. The two countries have fought several recent military skirmishes and also a border war in 1962 over disputed territory in the Himalayan Mountains and the Seven Sister States of northeast India (Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Manipur, Mizoram, Nagaland, and Tripura).
An area unknown to most of the world is the Siliguri Corridor, nicknamed “The Chicken’s Neck,” that strategically connects the isolated Seven Sister States to the rest of India via the only rail service in the area. Sikkim joined the rest of India as a state in 1975, it having been quasi-independent until then. The Seven Sister States are bordered on three-and-a-half sides by Bangladesh, Myanmar, China, Bhutan, and Nepal, the latter two being effectively controlled by China.
On China’s side of the border, China’s Chumbi Valley is the leading edge in a Mexican stand-off between Chinese roadbuilders and troops against the Indian army. Chinese leader Xi Jinping doubtless has a desire to absorb those Seven Sister States into Communist China in order to ultimately gain yet another major trade route access to the Indian Ocean from the Bay of Bengal. This, then, is a major source of the China-India border dispute.
Last year’s military talks between the two sides ended in a stalemate, and both sides are hunkering down for continuing tensions in the region, with Chinese state-run Global Times crowing about the PLA’s superior logistics in the area here.
As part of a strategy to encircle and isolate India, Communist China has long sought to dominate the Indo-Pacific region, both economically and geopolitically. China seeks to develop an integrated economic market consisting of “all Eurasian nations,” with emphasis on South and Central Asia. Integral to the growing Chinese hub-and-spoke network is the development of a series of land corridors to facilitate overland trade, including the China–Central Asia–West Asia Corridor running from Western China to Turkey. The Spider-Dragon is focused on developing a land route through Pakistan to the Gulf of Oman, too.
China has maintained a long relationship with Pakistan, as noted here. The Chinese are investing billions under their Belt Road Initiative to develop the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor consisting of highways, rail lines, and pipelines from the port of Gwadar on the Indian Ocean to Xinjiang. This Corridor will be the transmission belt to China for Middle East oil, including oil from Iran, as noted here. The Chinese are also “building infrastructure for Pakistan on the disputed India–Pakistan border inside Pakistan-controlled Kashmir,” as noted here.
A key Chinese geopolitical-military goal in the Indo-Pacific region is to expand PLA/PLA-Navy bases throughout the region in order to counteract longtime US geopolitical dominance there. The establishment of PLA bases is used to intimidate Indo-Pac nations into taking more neutral (if not outright pro-China) stances in geopolitical affairs. This strategy has worked well with key ally Pakistan at Gwadar port. That strategy is being used elsewhere in the region, as reported by the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies: “The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is already making serious headway securing new bases in Cambodia, Tanzania, and the United Arab Emirates, among other locales. … The current push for a Chinese base in Kiribati is eerily reminiscent of Beijing’s efforts to secure its first (and for now only) overseas military base in Djibouti in 2017.” [Note: Kiribati is within striking range of Hawaii. It is not just the smaller nations whom Beijing seeks to intimidate, but also their “Main Enemy” (the United States of America).]
The Chinese have been steadily focused on improved ties with Iran since the 1960’s, as summarized here. Their methods have included well-timed diplomacy, bribery, and strategic investments over the years. CCP patience has paid off handsomely as the two nations are well on the way to developing a strategic relationship. As reported here, China and Iran have recently signed an agreement that involves “Chinese investment of $400 billon in Iran over a 25-year period in return for lower Iranian petroleum export prices.” There is a military element of that deal, too, as the countries will exchange military personnel, China will be permitted to deploy/station 5,000 PLA personnel in Iran, and maritime cooperation between the two will be enhanced. Lastly, the deal provides the PLA-N with access to the Iranian port of Chabahar, which is an alternative access to the Gulf of Oman besides Gwadar port.
Increased CCP influence in Iran could have a major impact on Iranian operations throughout the Middle East. Iran is already heavily engaged in funding Hezbollah, Hamas, and Islamic Jihad, as well as providing Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps military resources to its allies and proxies as a means of undermining and dominating the smaller Arab nations in the Middle East over time. Chinese purchase of Iranian oil funds all of these activities and the increasing CCP political influence being exerted in Tehran may tilt the balance of power in the Middle East away from the US to Communist China.
It has been postulated that China is in effect orchestrating a three-way alliance with Iran and Pakistan in order to control and influence matters in Southwest and South Asia. The above actions would appear to confirm that a de facto alliance is already in effect.
Add Afghanistan to the mix. The CCP achieved a great geopolitical victory when the US abandoned the country to the Taliban last August. In doing so, the US also abandoned Afghanistan’s rich deposits of copper, gold, bauxite, lead, zinc, coal, iron ore, and rare earth elements to the Chinese. China has been steadily working for years behind the scenes to influence their long-term prospects in Afghanistan. Unbeknownst to many in the West, China had already become Afghanistan’s biggest investor before the Biden administration cut and ran, as noted here. The Chinese have a $3 billion, 30-year lease on the Aynak copper mine and have their sights now set on lithium mining, as reported here. Lithium is used for the production of lithium-ion batteries, a major component of the China’s burgeoning green technology production base. Chinese investment in roads and railways will complete the addition of Afghanistan to the Spider-Dragon’s hub-and-spoke network as an extension to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.
The Chinese also have their sights set on Sri Lanka with BRI-related investments at Colombo International Container Terminal (CICT) and the southern port of Hambantota. The usual CCP debt-trap diplomacy may be more effective in Sri Lanka, as the country maintains high debt levels accompanied by a poor trade balance, making it more difficult for Sri Lanka to pay back the Chinese loans. Plus, the Chinese insist on importing Chinese labor to “facilitate” completion of projects, which displaces local workers. It is speculated that China will ultimately gain some control over Hambantota in order to allow access to the port by PLA-N ships.
Conclusion. Communist China’s geopolitical and economic moves in South Asia are transparently aimed at reducing India’s influence in the region, partly in order to achieve Chinese territorial growth objectives along the disputed China-India border. The Spider-Dragon’s web continues to expand and ensnare several countries on India’s periphery. Additionally, China seeks to diminish US influence in region, especially in the Middle East. Thus, India and the US are natural allies with a common adversary.
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