The Economy May Be Key To A 2024 Win For Republicans, But Are They Smart Enough To Not Get In Their Own Way?
Americans’ perceptions of the economy and their well-being will have an impact on the 2024 elections. Economics issues, namely inflation, are the most pressing problems of the day for most Americans. For quite a while, there has been a lot of speculation that the economy was going to soften. It appears we are starting to see signs of this as of late.
The Wall Street Journal reported on August 6th, 2023 that earnings for the nation’s biggest companies are poised to fall for the third straight quarter, hurt in part by the decline in energy prices. The members of the S&P 500 are on pace to collectively report a 5.2% decline in earnings, their worst performance since 2020.”
The only reason why the U.S. hasn’t slipped into a recession is because consumer spending remains high and a large amount of easy money is being pumped into the economy by the federal reserve. It takes a while before that is all washed out of the financial system, but as that starts to happen, consumers will not be able to outpace producers.
Producers are cutting back because they see the writing on the wall. They are starting to consolidate their gains as they realize that if they continue to expand their actual manufacturing and production, they are going to undercut themselves.
Virtually all major companies in the U.S. are starting to see earning declines. As mentioned earlier, members of the S&P 500 are on pace to see their worst performance since 2020. Revenue is on track to only rise 0.6% from a year ago. However, this is mostly due to inflation at this point.
Most of these losses are due to declines in oil prices. The energy sector is taking it right on the chin. There are also declines in materials and the tech industry. Apple Sales fell for the third consecutive quarter amid softening demand for consumer devices.
The only areas that continue to have quarterly revenue growth are the healthcare industry and communication services. The real estate sector is somewhat holding steady along with consumer necessities. But I expect to see companies even in these industries start to feel the pain and report bad earnings soon.
It is also important to note in the midst of all of this, the unemployment numbers that came out two weeks ago were weaker than expected. As a harder economic pinch is felt by Americans, this could mean real trouble for Joe Biden and the Democrats because we are likely to see the economy take a real noticeable downturn in the coming quarters leading up to the 2024 elections.
The big question for Republicans will be, “Can they take advantage of this soft, stagnated, and recessive economic environment?” While cultural issues and the two-tier justice system we see unveiling right before our very eyes are important, these issues won’t be the main ones to bring home the bacon in the next general election.
The bread-and-butter topics will be inflation, education, taxation, crime, and foreign affairs. These are issues that if practical solutions are offered, WE the Republicans can win on, and most important, WE THE PEOPLE WILL WIN ON.
The Democrats believed that the Republicans had a poor 2022 election because all eyes were on Trump. Their strategy for 2024 is to keep Trump in the public eye.
So pay attention when the Democrats and/or the mainstream media try to make social issues front and center or focus everything on what is going on with Trump. Don’t fall for or feed into the narrative. There is too much at stake. If the message during the general election is mainly about any of these issues and not kitchen table issues, we Republicans are going to lose the election.
On the other hand, if this is about Joe Biden and his horrible handling of the last four years, we have a good chance of winning. We all want change and to save our country. Well, we can’t do anything if we don’t win.
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