The Cycle of Civilization: From Strength to Weakness and Back Again

John Adams, one of America’s founding fathers, eloquently captured a fundamental truth about the progression of societies in his famous quote about the necessity of studying war and politics. His insight highlights a cyclical pattern observed throughout history: hard times create strong men, strong men create good times, good times create weak men, and weak men create hard times. This concept, mirrored in the more recent theory of the Fourth Turning, illustrates the inevitable cycles of civilization and the lessons that must be continually relearned.

In times of strife and conflict, societies are forced to prioritize survival. Men study war and politics not out of choice but necessity, as the stability of their communities hinges on their ability to navigate and overcome external and internal threats. These hard times demand resilience, strength, and a deep understanding of power dynamics. This foundational knowledge and experience forge strong men who are capable of defending their people and establishing order.

Once stability is achieved, the focus shifts from survival to flourishing. The strong men who mastered war and politics begin to explore and develop other fields such as mathematics, philosophy, geography, agriculture, natural history, and commerce. These disciplines contribute to the creation of prosperous and enlightened societies. Their efforts lay the groundwork for advancements in technology, culture, and economy, fostering a period of good times where peace and prosperity become the norm.

During these good times, the emphasis moves towards the finer aspects of human expression and creativity. Men study painting, poetry, music, statuary, tapestry, and porcelain, enriching the cultural fabric of their societies. These pursuits, while valuable, often lead to a gradual decline in the emphasis on the hard-earned lessons of war and politics. As generations grow up in comfort and security, they become more detached from the realities of conflict and governance, leading to a weakening of the societal fabric.

This weakening sets the stage for the inevitable downturn. The complacency bred in good times results in the rise of weak men who lack the fortitude and insight to maintain the systems built by their predecessors. They forget the harsh lessons of history and become ill-equipped to handle emerging challenges. Consequently, the systems begin to deteriorate, and the society faces a resurgence of hard times, thus restarting the cycle.

The cyclical nature of civilization, as described by both John Adams and the authors of “The Fourth Turning,” serves as a poignant reminder of the importance of historical awareness and preparedness. Each generation must strive to balance the pursuit of peace and prosperity with the vigilance required to safeguard against future adversities. By recognizing and understanding this pattern, societies can better navigate the transitions between these phases, ensuring a more resilient and enduring civilization.