The recent meeting of the “Ramstein Group,” headed up by the American Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, laid out bad news… not just for Ukraine, but for the West in general.
The SECDEF’s comments that “there’s no one capability that will in and of itself be decisive in this campaign,”[1] was revealing, but surely not as he intended.
Over the last half-century, the United States has relied on high tech “wonder weapons” to assert its will on a host of small nations. In contrast, Russia has been fighting arguably one of the largest land wars since World War II, and against the collective West no less. Over the last two years, the Russians have bombarded key targets in Ukraine with over 8,000 missiles of various types, along with thousands of smaller drones. And yet, Ukraine, while now clearly losing the war, is still fighting on, while Ukrainian return strikes have been but pin pricks to the Russian military and economy.
So, what does this mean for the West in general and the United States in particular?
It is now obvious that in a peer-to-peer encounter, such wonder weapons, especially missiles and drones, will not do the trick. If Ukraine can continue fighting despite being bombarded, how will Russia, China, or even Iran fare in such a fight?
The reality is that such wonder weapons will not win a major war. Indeed, missiles and drones are not a paradigm shift in warfare, as they really just represent a modified form of aerial bombardment. Mass bombing of Germany and Japan in World War II did not win the war. It still required amphibious invasions and ground combat to bring about a decisive result. History has demonstrated time and time again that key elements for winning wars are cheap, mass-produced weapons of various types, and a large, robust population to use them in ground combat. Western governments have fallen victim to the same errors of Germany during World War II, relying upon small numbers of high-tech weapons to compensate for a lack of military manpower.[2]
Austin’s admission laid bare the reality that the United States is a paper tiger. Western nations, even the United States, do not have the conventional military force to impose their will on any peer-to-peer opponent, and would even have serious trouble with a nation like Iran. For Neocons in Washington, DC, this leaves them only two important tools in their toolbox… various forms of economic sanctions to instigate regime change via “color revolutions,” and nuclear weapons.
The rise of BRICS may spell an end to sanctions as a means of leverage. Neocons will soon have only the nuclear option to try and maintain the United States in its role as the one world government, or else they must face the crumbling of their empire.
Will the Neocons peacefully accept their decline?
Russ Rodgers has several books published on Amazon.
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[1] https://www.reuters.com/world/biden-sign-250-million-ukraine-security-assistance-2024-09-06/
[2] Analysts Tony Cordesman and James Blackwell warned of this problem over 30 years ago. See Strategy and Technology: Compensating for Smaller Forces: Adjusting Ways and Means Through Technology. Carlisle, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, 1992.