Recently, I wrote about a possible inflection point for West Point and the Army being the transformational change in the character of conflict. In other words, what happens in Land Warfare is changing rapidly with significant effects. The battlefield is getting much more lethal across much greater distances. My piece was prompted by the comment the Superintendent and Dean at West Point made about their West Point 20501 plan. A different inflection point, other than the character of Land Warfare, is what wars will be fought.
Ten years ago, in my last iteration as an Army futurist, we were forced to consider only the approved future scenarios. Other possible, or even likely, scenarios couldn’t be war gamed. Real world events are less constrained.
Funny how that works. Back in 1992, when we completed the last “Army 21” study, I was ordered to take two things out. Both actually happened within a year.
One was the Army in domestic operations – Los Angeles Riot – and the other was Army culture at odds with society – the Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell change for homosexual behavior.
News flash: Inflection points don’t ask for approval.
The U.S. Army faced multiple inflection points from its role in creating The United States of America by actually carrying the American Nation on its bayonets in 1775 to frontier fighting Indians to a huge War Between the States back to the frontier to deploying outside the U.S. to theater warfare to global war to Superpower Cold War with limited wars to twenty years of two long campaigns and other actions doing regime change and against Islamists.
So, let’s look at possible, if not starkly and scarily very probable, scenarios – and what they could mean to the Army and West Point.
- Domestic Operations. Sadly, there are several scenarios that commit the Army in domestic operations. One is a certainty. The millions of illegal aliens invited and accommodated to invade America by the Biden-Harris Administration guarantee that there are enough hostiles to give the U.S. another 9-11 along the lines of the October 7th, 2023 massacre in Israel.
- S. Oct 7th. The Army must defend its bases and housing if attacked. The Army will likely be called out to defend fixed sites after the attack, even if there are no follow on attacks. Much of that is feel good, closing-the-barn-door-after-the-horse-escapes, public relations. Army forces would be needed if the Islamists fight as military units above suicide squads and hold ground. The response to destroy whoever is behind the attack might be like the early operations in Afghanistan.
- West Point needs to name our enemies. Not refer to generic “terrorism.” Teach how Islamist Totalitarianism is the historical and natural outcome for devout Muslims. The 80% of Muslims who aren’t Islamists ignore the Koran and Hadith to just live their lives. Like our Indian allies on the Frontier, Muslims can help us fight other Muslims without accommodating to their backward, barbarian religion. Teach the history of how Islam is the enemy of Western Civilization. Understand that even non-observant Muslims are domestic enemies of the US Constitution if they support Sharia Law in America.
- Civil Unrest. The Great U.S. Culture War could become like the Spanish Civil War or our American Revolution where neighbors killed neighbors based on their politics. The 30k or so Antifa thugs in 2020 were a corps-sized force operating nation-wide as smaller unit disruptions. The millions of military age illegal aliens expands that potential significantly. Civil Authorities might need Army help as they did in the ‘60s and in the 1992 Los Angeles riot. Holding prisoners or deportees could exceed law enforcement capabilities as well.
- West Point must shape Cadets to identify with the Army and their oath to the Constitution above any politically correct identity group or political party. Young officers must have the discipline to lead soldiers with strict Rules of Engagement to protect civilians. They must deal with severe stress coolly.
- Cartel Conflict. Fighting the Cartels across the border and in the US is complicated like fighting Hamas and Hezbollah in crowded urban areas. It is intense close combat in direct fire engagements and discrete attacks requiring excellent intelligence.
- West Point must inculcate the Honor Code in cadets so that no amount of money or personal threats to family can compromise them. Provide specialists to counter Cartel sophisticated cyber ops.
- American Civil War 3.0. A Constitutional crisis might happen when one side of the Culture War and their political party insist the Constitution is invalid, should be trashed, is racist, should be ignored, etc. and the other side is dedicated to the Constitution – and its Federalism as written. So, what happens if free states stand up to a tyrannical Federal Executive or Judicial order? How does that play out? Recall the government excesses of Covid Pandemic. It could happen in response to our October 7th and any backlash to that attack.
- West Point must teach the Constitution, its historical-moral-ethical origins, and what the oath to the Constitution means to officers for all of their lives. Know which illegal orders to disobey. Know when to resign.
- War with CCP. War with the Chinese Communist Party includes Homeland defense and decisive operations overseas. The distinction between the CCP and Chinese People is useful for encouraging an implosion, but meaningless once the Barbarians (us) land in China. War with China could mean re-constituting society as well as the continuance of government and defense following devastating nuclear, biological, and chemical attacks. The war to destroy the CCP leadership could be a very lengthy, lethal war. The Army will have to expand greatly and be sustained through significant casualties.
- West Point must teach cadets enough of the basic sciences and engineering management to rebuild the nation – and its military-industrial base to stay in the fight. Cadets must have proven resilience to deal with severe shock at home and in their units after catastrophic losses. They must have the will to win a war of national survival.
- Europe’s Civil War. Sooner or later, there will be a “Jacquerie” of European peasantry against their resident Islamists. Outrages by one side will be followed by worse outrages from the other side. The fighting could include immigrants as well as the Muslims. Our NATO Allies’ armies and police may be insufficient to secure areas of their country. UK and French nuclear weapons deserve special attention.
- West Point can meet this contingency with preparation for like domestic operations in the US.
- Usual Rogues. If North Korea or Russia provoke war of their own doing or dangerously implode, those contingencies are reasonably planned. Excluding Ukraine from NATO would be a big help.
- West Point must prepare its graduates to serve with distinction as in past wars. Understand what has worked in the past and shouldn’t be lost.
- Avoidable Wars. The inevitable wars and rumors of wars across the rest of the world usually won’t threaten U.S. vital interests. Only go to war when you must, when you plan to win, and you already have a post-war plan for the peace to follow.
- West Point should keep the “Woke” out of international relations and economic instruction for graduates to understand truly how America fits in the world. And, to understand the non-military components of power.
- S. Oct 7th. The Army must defend its bases and housing if attacked. The Army will likely be called out to defend fixed sites after the attack, even if there are no follow on attacks. Much of that is feel good, closing-the-barn-door-after-the-horse-escapes, public relations. Army forces would be needed if the Islamists fight as military units above suicide squads and hold ground. The response to destroy whoever is behind the attack might be like the early operations in Afghanistan.
What wars are fought alter by degrees the character of war itself. That truism doesn’t change the need to prepare the Army and West Point for the full range of possible conflict. Be ready for the inflection point the next war will be.
- Military Review Online Exclusive, September 2024. https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Journals/Military-Review/Online-Exclusive/2024-OLE/West-Point-2050/
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