Have the objectives of US policy-makers over the years with respect to the People’s Republic of China been achieved? Is the PRC more democratic and less belligerent, as so-called “China hands” have argued would be “inevitable” as they pushed free trade, massive Western investments in China, and appeasement policies since the 1970s? Is there less intimidation of the PRC’s neighbors now than there was during the Mao Zedong era? Is the PRC more democratic – by Western definition? Appeasement of the CCP has had disastrous results. Let us examine some of the consequences.
Background
The US relationship with China has flipped several times over the last hundred years: pro-China before and during World War-II, adversarial after the Chinese Communist Party took control of the Chinese government in 1949, wartime enemies during the Korean War, back to adversarial and a virtual quarantine of the People’s Republic of China after 1952, the surprise “opening” of the PRC to the international system by Nixon and Kissinger in 1971-2 and subsequent US and Western appeasement of the PRC in the misguided belief that aggressive CCP behavior could be curtailed or at least lessened over time, and the Trump administration’s efforts to return to a more adversarial posture with the realization that the appeasement efforts pushed by the US political elite and multinational corporations had failed to curtail rogue CCP behavior. More on that last part later in this article.
When was the CCP’s real animus against the US truly ignited? It could be argued that the ideological chasm between the Communist Chinese and freedom-loving Americans virtually guaranteed an adversarial relationship, but the Korean War certainly fanned the flames. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) fought the US-led UN coalition to a standstill until the Armistice was signed at Panmunjom in 1953. According to estimates, about 180,000 Chinese (these are PRC numbers; other estimates were as high as 500,000 KIA) were killed as opposed to 36,000 Americans KIA and 227,000 South Koreans plus about 3,700 from other UN countries. Total Chinese and North Korean casualties (KIA, wounded, missing, prisoners) were estimated at 1,500,000, with two thirds of those being Chinese.
While the Chinese Communist leadership has never been shy about sacrificing its people to achieve the “glorious goals of Communism” over the years, nevertheless, suffering 900,000 casualties in a stalemated war on their periphery had to have left a lasting effect on Mao Zedong and the CCP leadership’s psyche. It could be argued that the Chinese plan for world domination began in earnest after the Korean War. The Chinese if nothing else retain grudges and long-term animosity for their perceived enemies. There’s nothing inherently wrong with that, as that is an element of human nature. But there is nothing in Chinese history and culture similar to the ideology of “turning the other cheek” as is found in Western civilization. Rather, the Chinese play the long game, especially against their adversaries.
A major milestone in that long game occurred when Mao allowed President Nixon and Secretary of State Richard Kissinger to “open China” through secret negotiations in 1971 and ultimately granted a state visit to Nixon at the height of the Vietnam War in 1972. This began the Chinese manipulation of the US political class which continues to this very day. The US political class was convinced that the PRC could be peacefully brought into the global system through open trade policies and access to world markets and Western technology.
In 1979, the PRC was granted temporary Most-Favored Nation (MFN) status, which has been extended continuously to the present day. This was a boon to the Chinese economy, giving the PRC a favored trade status and direct access to the US economy. The PRC was eventually brought into World Trade Organization in December 2001 as a crowning achievement by the “China hands” – acolytes of Kissinger who facilitated the PRC’s rise while feathering their own nests through CCP sinecures, awards, and bribes.
Observers might wonder when the PRC will have transitioned from “developing country” to “developed nation.” After all, China is now “is the world’s largest producer of over 220 types of industrial products, including vehicles and computers,” as bragged in Chinese state-run People’s Daily. But those are certainly not the only “unexpected effects” of the US’s China policy from 1972 through the present.
The Results
Economic. Through Western investment and CCP theft of technology and intellectual property, the PRC has become a manufacturing powerhouse and the number two economy in the world. Modernizing China included implementation of “free trade” policies and the off-shoring of US manufacturing facilities to mainland China. These policies helped create the US “Rust Belt” in the Upper Midwest of the US. One dire consequence was the offshoring of virtually the entire US pharmaceutical supply chain to the PRC – a fact made abundantly clear during the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus over the past 29+ months. Even erstwhile pro-PRC Democrats like Joe Biden have come to realize the threat posed by PRC control of critical supply chains, as noted in Executive Order 19017, America’s Supply Chains. The US Congress and various think tanks are also examining ways to “de-couple” from China in order to protect US technology and intellectual property and also address Chinese mercantilist practices by state-owned enterprises that are heavily subsidized by the CCP government. The continuing Chinese economic espionage and theft of intellectual property and technology was previously discussed here. None of these CCP practices will be stopped without concrete actions taken by the US and other nations.
Military. The PRC is pursuing a policy of massive military militarization. The PLA has achieved several important milestones in recent months, several of which have shocked Western observers:
- The PLA Rocket Force is on the brink of a breakout in nuclear-tipped intercontinental ballistic missiles with the discovery of 350 new missile silos under construction in Inner Mongolia. A harbinger: the PRC is not bound by strategic arms limitation treaties as are Russia and the US.
- Two tests of what could lead to the world’s first Hypersonic Glide Vehicle/Fractal Orbital Bombardment System (HGV/FOBS) were completed this fall. Note: The DF-17 Dongfeng medium-range ballistic missile system entered PLA-RF service in September 2019.
- The first launch of a carrier-based variant of the Chinese FC-31 stealth fighter was conducted last month, which looks remarkably similar to the US F-35 stealth fighter.
- The launch of a Chinese satellite with potential dual-use capabilities: space debris mitigation (for public consumption) and anti-satellite applications (for military use). It should be noted that the PRC had virtually no satellite launch capabilities until the late 1990s after “tech transfer” authorized by the Clinton administration. The PRC is now launching prestige space missions to Mars and the Moon with great fanfare.
- The PLA-Navy now possesses more ships than the US Navy, as reported here, with PLAN shipbuilding expected to continue at a rapid pace for years, according to a new DoD report.
- Commercial SAR imagery indicates that the third PLAN aircraft carrier, the Type-003, will soon be launched and is equivalent in size to the US’s Ford-class nuclear aircraft carrier.
Geopolitical. Chinese aggressiveness on the world scene has increased dramatically under Xi Jinping; some examples include:
- The continued exploitation of debt trap diplomacy through under the auspices of the Belt-Road Initiative.
- Chinese genocide through the use of concentration camps and slave labor in East Turkestan (Xin Jiang) continues, as reported here.
- Increased PLA-Air Force intimidation of Taiwan in recent months, as noted here.
- Increased intimidation of India: PLA troops deployed to Anyi Airbase in Tajikistan; new PCL-161 and PCL-181 self-propelled howitzer systems and PHL-03 MLRS (Multiple Launch Rocket System) deployed by the PLA to the India-China border
- Implementation of a new national security law in Hong Kong in violation of CCP promises of “autonomy for 50 years” in a “one country, two systems” arrangement.
- Corruption of UN agencies, particularly the World Health Organization
- Xi Jinping’s non-attendance at 26th U.N. Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP26) to avoid questions about Chinese coal production and pollution while simultaneously and cynically (and hypocritically) pushing “technical solutions” to achieve the conference’s climate goals.
Conclusion, Part I. US policy with respect to China since 1972 has been a dismal failure – from the US point of view. The objective of integrating the PRC into the world economy has unleashed CCP mercantilism and debt trap diplomacy on the world, as opposed to the democratization and softening of PRC aggression. The CCP would almost certainly consider US policy to have been an unexpected gift that propelled them to the precipice of overtaking the US in economic, military, and geopolitical affairs. However, the most impactful result of that failed US policy has been the corruption of the US political class, which has made the PRC’s ascendancy a reality. That disastrous result will be described in Part II of this two-part series.
The end
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