How artificial intelligence may do to attorneys what the automobile did to horses
There was a time when the horse was indispensable.
Civilizations were built on horsepower. Armies marched on it. Commerce depended on it. Entire professions revolved around feeding it, breeding it, shoeing it, transporting it, and cleaning up after it.
Then the automobile arrived.
The horse didn’t disappear. It simply lost its monopoly.
History is full of professions that believed they were immune to technological disruption. Telegraph operators. Switchboard attendants. Typesetters. Travel agents. Video rental clerks.
And now, somewhere in a mahogany-paneled office, a lawyer is nervously billing another six minutes while pretending not to notice that a $20-per-month AI subscription can draft a contract before the attorney has finished searching for the correct template.
To be fair, attorneys have had a remarkably successful run.
For centuries, they transformed ordinary English into a dialect so complicated that they needed to charge clients by the hour to translate it back into ordinary English.
They also accumulated an impressive collection of nicknames.
Sharks.
Ambulance chasers.
Legal eagles.
Counselors.
Barristers.
Esquires.
And, depending on the circumstances, a few names that can’t be printed in a family publication.
What’s remarkable is that lawyers managed to accomplish this while simultaneously becoming one of the least trusted professions in public opinion surveys.
That takes talent.
People routinely say things like, “I hate lawyers.”
Then they immediately follow it with, “Do you know a good lawyer?”
It’s one of the great contradictions of modern society.
Artificial intelligence threatens to expose another contradiction.
The law is, in many ways, an information profession.
Research.
Statutes.
Precedent.
Case law.
Regulations.
Briefs.
Contracts.
Discovery.
That happens to be exactly the kind of work at which AI excels.
Imagine explaining today’s legal model to someone from 1826.
“First, I pay a professional hundreds of dollars per hour to search through books.”
“But aren’t there libraries?”
“Yes.”
“And these books have indexes?”
“Yes.”
“So why don’t you look it up yourself?”
“Because the books are complicated.”
“And the professional simplifies them?”
“Not exactly. He usually makes them more complicated before simplifying them.”
Now imagine explaining that same system to someone in 2036.
“You paid how much for a parking citation?”
“Five thousand dollars.”
“Why?”
“I needed legal representation.”
“Did the computer explain the ordinance?”
“Yes.”
“Did the computer draft your motion?”
“Yes.”
“Did the computer organize your exhibits?”
“Yes.”
“Did the computer explain the relevant case law?”
“Yes.”
“So what exactly did your lawyer do?”
“He sent me an invoice.”
Of course, reports of the legal profession’s death are probably exaggerated.
People will still want human advocates.
Trials will still require judgment.
Negotiations will still involve personalities.
Complex litigation will still benefit from experience.
But the age of paying someone $500 an hour to retrieve information is rapidly approaching its expiration date.
The horse didn’t vanish.
It became a recreational activity.
Attorneys should find that analogy deeply unsettling.
The most dangerous words in any profession aren’t, “Your competition is improving.”
They’re, “Your customers can suddenly do much of the work themselves.”
The blacksmith ignored the automobile.
The travel agent ignored the internet.
The video store ignored streaming.
And somewhere, right now, an attorney is ignoring the fact that a client just spent twenty minutes with an AI system and walked into the office with a stack of organized evidence, a timeline, a draft motion, three alternative arguments, and a list of questions for cross-examination.
The billable hour may survive.
But it may soon need its own estate-planning attorney.
And that attorney should probably ask AI to draft the paperwork. Zing!
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