America was willing to go to war with the Soviet during the Cuban Missile Crisis, a military incursion on our border. Is American willing to go to war with Russia over one of its neighbors?
We are asking Americans to think about that because how do you ask a man to be the last man to dies in Vietnam? How do ask a man to be the last man to die for a mistake?
John Kerry in front of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee
April 22, 1971
I recalled this quote from Mr. Kerry as I was looking at the reactions of people after the meeting between President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Not exactly smooth diplomacy, but the immediate outcome was interesting.
The usual suspects called Trump a Putin stooge, wanting to impeach him for (cause of the week), willing to sell out Ukraine, NATO and Europe in general to help the Kremlin. Strange, during Trump’s first term, the US sold weapons to Ukraine to guard against Russian incursions.
We can look at the 2022 invasion as the cumulation of a new domino principle. The Russian president was not stopped, or impressed, by the lack of action by George W. Bush in 2008 after the invasion of Georgia. Barrack Obama did nothing to stop Putin’s 2014 annexation of Crimea and its invasion of Donbas. And now we have the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, which has lasted three years, cost over a half trillion dollars, and estimated loss of over one million lives on both sides.
Back to the summary of this article, a question is how much, or should I say, how far, will the US go in defending Ukraine? That’s not much of a stretch to ask, because our support of any nation has limits. It would not be the first time our support for an ally has changed.
After the October 7, 2023, attack by Hamas, countless Democrats in the Congress called on Israel to cease fire and allow the terrorist organization to rebuild. After the greatest slaughter of Jews since the Holocaust, these politicos wanted the only democracy in the Middle East to capitulate to the terrorist demands. The O’Biden administration paused weapons sales to pressure the Israeli government into a cease fire, a policy rescinded by President Trump recently. Yes, we will go to a much greater limit for Israel than many other nations.
In the 1973 Yom Kippur War, “Egypt and Syria attacked Israeli on two fronts, quickly crossing the Suez Canal and breaking through the Golan Heights. After then President Nixon established an emergency supply line to Israel, then Soviet Premier Leonid Brezhnev threatened to send 50, 000 to 70, 000 troops from the Ukraine (ironic) to hold the Golan Heights.” In response, President Nixon raised the US Defense Readiness Condition (DEFCON) from DEFCON 5 (normal peacetime readiness) to DEFCON 3, “Two steps from war, DEFCON 3 is generally seen as a standby level of alert, and it is the highest level of alert during peacetime.” The Soviets, seeing this move, stopped all preparations for incursion in the war. Again, Moscow would not go to war with the United States over an inconsequential (from their point of view) issue such as Egypt and Israel.
Some other history. In the Cuban Missile Crisis, the US was ready to bomb the Soviet launch sites in the Caribbean island. President Kennedy would not allow the Soviets to threaten American cities with nuclear weapons launched from our hemisphere, and Nikita Khrushchev would not go to war with the US over that.
The United States has its limits. And so did the Soviets. Now the question is, is Ukraine a hill we’re willing to die on? This is more than the pathetic red lines of the Obama years, the Russians have invaded and show no sign of pulling out, in spite of the cost in men and material. How far are we willing to go to change this, or stop the war?
President Trump has been broadcasting he wants the shooting stopped and is willing to pressure President Zelenskyy and go against Europe, and the foreign policy establishment to achieve that goal. Quite frankly, he is playing a weak hand. Putin has little regard for his next election (he’s almost as assured as the North Korean leader), and while he cannot win the war against the Ukraine, he can insure they don’t win. And if it cost millions of lives, he’s already got a few souls to account for after he passes.
The Russian president also knows Trump will not approve sending American troops into the Ukraine, plus the Europeans will be hesitant (i.e., they won’t) to do so. Putin also knows Trump doesn’t trust Zelenskyy with America’s weapons, and our treasury. Understandable, seeing before the invasion Ukraine was in the news mostly for being a funnel to The Big Guy through Hunter Biden.
So where do we go from here? Cutting off every source of income for the Russian Federation is a first step. Europe, you are in opposition to the Russians, do not buy your natural gas or oil from them! America has a massive amount of both ready to ship, and it’s a reliable source. Nothing speaks louder than money, and that’s what can get Putin’s (or his successor’s) attention. Find other ways to pressure Putin (he is not long for this earth to be quite frank), such as low intensity operations against his regime. This will strengthen our hand at the negotiation table.
That being said, unless we are willing to continue this long term, Russia will keep most, if not all, of the lands they have stolen. Not trying to be depressing, but Ukraine doesn’t have the force to push them out. And Russia doesn’t have the force to keep going (logistics can be an incredible reality check on dreams of conquest).
In 1952, then candidate Dwight Eisenhower said, “I will go to Korea!,” and in December 1952 (a month before he took office), did so. After seeing the colossal waste of life, Ike said, “I will end this war.” He let the North Koreans and Chinese know, through intermediaries he would use “any means necessary” to end the conflict. No one questioned Eisenhower was threatening to use nuclear weapons, and everyone knew he would give that order. Ike took office on January 20, 1953, and the cease fire that remains in effect to this day was signed on July 27, 1953.
Do we have that strong a hand to play? No. So a negotiated settlement of some sort may be the least bad solution. I’m not for capitulating, but we are not willing to continue with this effort forever, and Europe, for its recent bravado, is also not willing to do so. We need to look at this very ugly situation and see what will stop the killing as fast as possible.
Michael A. Thiac is a retired Army intelligence officer, with over 23 years experience, including serving in the Republic of Korea, Japan, and the Middle East. He is also a retired police patrol sergeant, with over 22 years’ service, and over ten year’s experience in field training of newly assigned officers. He has been published at The American Thinker, PoliceOne.com, and on his personal blog, A Cop’s Watch.
Opinions expressed are his alone and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of current or former employers.
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