The price of a gallon on gas is not set by multi-billion-dollar corporations. It’s set by local businesses.
Joe Biden said something stupid. Yes, you’re shocked, shocked you say. But yes, he did, and I’m not talking about him telling people at Jesse Jackson’s funeral he was smarter than most of them.
In the early part of the Biden term, with the Democrats war on American energy in full swing, Biden accused the oil companies of holding back production to increase prices. Constantly administration mouth pieces said oil companies had over 9,000 leases but were not drilling. A detail rarely mentioned, the Biden Bureau of Land Management would not issue permits needed to drill on the leases.
Biden did understand by limiting supply, he would be increasing prices. So he raided the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) in the months leading to the 2022 mid-term elections. The fact the SPR is for legitimate emergencies, not election disasters didn’t bother him. But Biden also didn’t know how the price of a gallon of gas is set. It’s set by Shell Oil, but by mom-and-pop stores.
In 1981, I was a 15-year-old high school student and I worked pumping gas during the summer. The owner, Harold, owned a Texaco franchise. It was an old-fashioned service station, some pumps full serve (I would pump the gas), some self-serve. Even had a mechanic to handle service and repairs. We sold car parts, but not milk, sorry.
One slow day we were talking and we got on the price of gas. I said something about a driver paying for the gas in his tank. Harold enlightened me, “Mike, that driver is not paying for what is in the tank right now. He’s paying for what will replace the gas in that tank.”
Every week or so he would have his station tanks refilled by a truck coming in from the refineries. But he was never certain of the price per gallon until he made the order. So Harold had to set the price he was charging now high enough to cover the replacement later. If the later cost was actually less, he made some extra money. If the replace was more, oh well, he lost a bit.
Normally this buffer would be a few cents a gallon. But recent events show what a business wants more than anything: Stability. Any business needs to know what the market conditions are before they can commit to an action. That goes from ordering 8,000 gallons of regular gas from the refinery or investing two-billion dollars on a drilling platform offshore. We don’t have that now.
Operation Epic Fury has made the energy industry very unstable. An obvious issue is the Strait of Hormuz is practically blocked. Over 20 million barrels of oil a day traverses that channel. That is approximately 20% of the world’s daily crude production. This volatility has caused oil prices to shoot up.
On 2/27/26, the price of a barrel of oil was $72.48. As of 3/6/26, it was $92.69. Gouging, no. “Big Oil” is not sure if the spigots are cut off or just turned down a bit. And people are willing to pay more for their product, and the owner-operators must have the money to buy their next tank of gas.
Now that is a higher-than-normal price but is it excessive? I would argue no. In 2022, without an attack on Iran, a barrel of crude rose to $123.00 (about $142.00 today). But Biden was in full war with American energy. Once he was out of office, there was a cease fire on American energy, oil flowed, and prices dropped.
Once the shooting war with Iran ceases, oil prices will drop. If I were to hazard a guess, late May. But no matter what, I believe we will have higher gas cost for this summer driving season than we did in 2025. It will take a few months for the oil market to stabilize after Epic Fury. Even if we stopped shooting tomorrow, the local gas industry can only see a few months out. Once they are confident in future prices, they can adjust consumer prices.
Michael A. Thiac is a retired Army intelligence officer, with over 23 years experience, including serving in the Republic of Korea, Japan, and the Middle East. He is also a retired police patrol sergeant, with over 22 years’ service, and over ten year’s experience in field training of newly assigned officers. He has been published at The American Thinker, PoliceOne.com, and on his personal blog, A Cop’s Watch.
Opinions expressed are his alone and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of current or former employers.
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