Thoughts on Ukraine Part 11: New Equilibrium

Thoughts on Ukraine Part 11: New Equilibrium Figure New Equilibrium Issues The figure above starts as a section of the New Equilibrium portion of the Conceptual Framework developed in Part 1. I have added elements based on developments over the last week. As the central question mark shows, there is still a great deal of …

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Joe Biden’s China problem

China

Image: DreamsTime Why did China give about $70 million to the University of Pennsylvania (Penn), located in Philadelphia? In 2017 Penn hired Joe “The Big Guy” to its faculty as the Benjamin Franklin Presidential Practice Professor. Penn paid Big Guy $390,000 for 2017 and over $400,000 for 2018. But Professor Biden did not teach a …

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Thoughts on Ukraine Part 10: Why do the People Fight or Not Fight?

As experience in Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq show, if we do not do a rigorous assessment before an intervention and do not continue to do it throughout the intervention, a nation can bleed itself badly. Perhaps the key screening questions are will the people support the intervention and will they fight?

Thoughts on Ukraine, Part 9: Impact on World’s Food

Thoughts on Ukraine, Part 9: Impact on World’s Food Figure Sunflower Oil and Wheat are Two Key Ukrainian Food Exports One voice missing from the security discussions on Ukraine is food security. The agricultural community certainly understands it, and there is a lot of discussion. But history tells us that hunger is a powerful source …

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Polish Prime Minister’s Office: No, We WON’T Be Sending MiGs to Ukraine

During a Zoom call with members of Congress on Saturday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reiterated his requests for a no-fly zone, more harsh sanctions and additional lethal military aid. Specifically, he asked for Russian-made MiG29 fighter jets. Ukrainian pilots know how to operate these planes, he said. As far as NATO leaders, including President Joe …

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Thoughts on Ukraine, Part 8: Multi-Domain Operations

Part 8 looks at holistic approach to Multi-Domain Operations. These include the military, diplomatic, and financial measures countries and corporations are taking against Russia.

Perhaps a holistic statement of purpose could be “Ukrainian and NATO military operations disrupt and block Russian military aggression, provide sanctions and other financial measures time to create the conditions for change within Russia that will stop its aggression.”

Thoughts on Ukraine, Part 7: The Joint Corporatist Scenario

Part 7 looks at the Joint Russia-China corporatist scenario. At what point would the differences rupture cooperation? In the event of a rupture, would one turn on the other? Could China buy up Russian companies and co-opt the interests of the kleptocrats or are their cultures and motives too dissimilar?
One thing is clear, there are stresses in the mix. Lukoil shines a spotlight on them.
Is Putin losing his grip if LukOil feels like they can criticize his strategy and call for an end to it?

Thoughts on Ukraine, Part 6: Mutual Destruction?

The attack on the Ukrainian nuclear plant was a risk. If the strike damaged the containment vessel, it could have unleashed nuclear radiation. That got me thinking about the broader risks of destruction.
• Russian destroys Ukrainian cities and infrastructure trying to take it. More adventures like the nuclear plant could do it.
• Oligarchs in Russia see both a crisis and an opportunity and arrest/kill Putin and take control and force a “favorable” settlement with Ukraine that lets the oligarchs buy Ukrainian assets and resources.
• The west’s sanctions cripple the west and the Russians, leaving an opportunity for the Chinese to go after both. Perhaps they are crocodile watching the two snakes fight it out to take them both.

Is Russia-Putin-Threatening to Use Nuclear Weapons-Weapons of Mass Destruction-in Ukraine? And We Were Told the Bad Orange Man was Gonna Cause This!

President Biden, President Putin

Doesn’t it seem strange that with all the hysteria over war mongering politicians and presidents over the past 60 years-including the egregious treatment of candidates like Barry Goldwater-recall the LBJ political cartoon of Daisy Girl happily holding flowers on a sunny day when a nuclear detonation suddenly reflects in her eyes (two additional great candidate …

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